Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE / Technical Analysis

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

<ul>
<li>Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.</li>
<li>Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. </li>
<li>We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.
Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. 
We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div style="text-align: center;"><strong>• NET GAIN • </strong></div><div><div class="content-caption">
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/590/original/2021-02-19_07-20-52.png?1613686864" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189590"></figure><p></p></section> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><div>
<p><strong>NET GAIN</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/591/original/2021-02-19_07-29-59.png?1613687413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189591"></figure></section><p><strong>TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM)</strong> - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/595/original/2021-02-19_07-38-34.png?1613687927" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189595"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/596/original/2021-02-19_07-40-09.png?1613688021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189596"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   </p></section><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/597/original/2021-02-19_08-02-24.png?1613689355" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189597"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/694/original/2021-02-19_16-02-06.png?1613718138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189694"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>SECTOR BREAKDOWN</strong> - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>,<strong> Other Consumer Products</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong>, and <strong>Building Materials.</strong> The RRS 'losers' are <strong>Utilities</strong>, <strong>Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,</strong><strong>Retail</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong>.  </p>
</div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/700/original/2021-02-19_16-05-32.png?1613718344" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189700"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/701/original/2021-02-19_16-06-12.png?1613718383" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189701"></figure></section><hr>
</div><section></section><div><div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.</p>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div></div>

• NET GAIN • 
 Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM) - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.
FORECASTS - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. 
POSITIVE MOMENTUM - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are Other Commercial Products, Autos, Other Consumer Products, Metals, and Building Materials. The RRS 'losers' are Utilities, Internet Content &amp; Services, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,Retail, and Healthcare.  



In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.




🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Like most lifestyle segments, the outdoor apparel &amp; equipment market contracted in 2020 but this is a blip in an otherwise sustained multi-year expansion. Long-term growth is being driven by both expanded supply and demand as consumers of all ages embrace the great outdoors for the first time in generations and suppliers rush to equip them.</p><p>This has benefited retailers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> but it also means that a number of other retailers have entered the market, creating new competition, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kohnan-shoji-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5662:1" rel="noopener">Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP).</a></p>

Like most lifestyle segments, the outdoor apparel &amp; equipment market contracted in 2020 but this is a blip in an otherwise sustained multi-year expansion. Long-term growth is being driven by both expanded supply and demand as consumers of all ages embrace the great outdoors for the first time in generations and suppliers rush to equip them.This has benefited retailers such as Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP), Goldwin Inc (8111 JP) and Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) but it also means that a number of other retailers have entered the market, creating new competition, including Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP) and Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP).

Japan's Outdoor Market Expands 3.2% in 2019 but Contraction in 2020

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,057m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Skylark, Disco, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec, Japan Tobacco.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,057m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Skylark, Disco, Taiyo Yuden, Lasertec, Japan Tobacco.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 26th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Disco

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 13th AUGUST •</strong></p><p>The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus (3923 JP)</a>, the 'worst' from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>.  More extensive coverage follows in the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/408/original/2020-08-14_05-05-16.png?1597349134" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152408"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/409/original/2020-08-14_05-05-59.png?1597349190" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152409"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - <strong>58%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>48%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and <strong>61%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and <strong>30%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>170 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 12% Neutral / 58% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: -</strong>2.7 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.8% Quarter YoY / +5.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.3 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 30%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>56 Annual • 23 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 38% Positive / 14% Neutral / 48% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 26% Positive / 13% Neutral / 61% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.2 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 13th AUGUST •The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Rakus (3923 JP), the 'worst' from ASICS Corp (7936 JP).  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATSPERCENTAGES - 58% of quarterly results, 48% of annual forecasts/revisions and 61% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 30% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.170 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 29% Positive / 12% Neutral / 58% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.7 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.8% Quarter YoY / +5.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.3 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 30%
56 Annual • 23 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 38% Positive / 14% Neutral / 48% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 26% Positive / 13% Neutral / 61% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.2 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th August - Asics, FUJIFILM, Dentsu, Mitsubishi Shoji

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8% higher than three months ago - an...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Outdoor Market Expands 3.2% in 2019 but Contraction in 2020

Japan's outdoor market is one of few segments to see solid growth in recent years and while the market will dip in 2020, will grow well in the next...

Michael Causton

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 26th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia, SoftBank, Tokyo Electron, Fujikura, McDonald's, Skylark,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th August - Asics, FUJIFILM, Dentsu, Mitsubishi Shoji

•BEST & WORST 13th AUGUST •The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Rakus (3923 JP), the 'worst' from ASICS Corp (7936 JP). ...

Campbell Gunn

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