Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan–China relations have sharply deteriorated after Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, triggering diplomatic retaliation, security tensions, and the worst bilateral rift since 1972.</li>
<li>Asics’ ¥90bn market-cap drop reflects concerns over its heavy reliance on Chinese consumers, both domestically and through inbound tourism, which drive roughly a quarter of profits.</li>
<li>Markets may be underestimating the risk of prolonged geopolitical strain, threatening Asics’ 2026 outlook despite record current performance and secure near-term guidance.</li>
</ul>


Japan–China relations have sharply deteriorated after Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, triggering diplomatic retaliation, security tensions, and the worst bilateral rift since 1972.
Asics’ ¥90bn market-cap drop reflects concerns over its heavy reliance on Chinese consumers, both domestically and through inbound tourism, which drive roughly a quarter of profits.
Markets may be underestimating the risk of prolonged geopolitical strain, threatening Asics’ 2026 outlook despite record current performance and secure near-term guidance.


<ul>
<li>7th straight quarter of double-digit growth; 3Q revenue +21% y/y to ¥222bn, led by strong EU and Japan performance and steady global expansion.</li>
<li>Gross margin +110bps to 56.1%, operating margin +320bps to 20.9%; FY OP guidance raised to ¥140bn, share buyback of ¥30bn announced.</li>
<li>Near-Term share impact limited, but long-term growth underpinned by SportStyle and Onitsuka Tiger; OP could double to ~¥260bn though next MTP cycle.</li>
</ul>


7th straight quarter of double-digit growth; 3Q revenue +21% y/y to ¥222bn, led by strong EU and Japan performance and steady global expansion.
Gross margin +110bps to 56.1%, operating margin +320bps to 20.9%; FY OP guidance raised to ¥140bn, share buyback of ¥30bn announced.
Near-Term share impact limited, but long-term growth underpinned by SportStyle and Onitsuka Tiger; OP could double to ~¥260bn though next MTP cycle.


Asics (7936) | Sustained Growth Momentum with Margin Upside

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>KLA dropped -15% after guidance underwhelms while Screen and Lasertec likely underwhelm.</li>
<li>Western Digital drops -10% despite beating across all metrics after its massive run higher.</li>
<li>Deckers +20% on good results for Hoka could be good read for Asics.</li>
</ul>


KLA dropped -15% after guidance underwhelms while Screen and Lasertec likely underwhelm.
Western Digital drops -10% despite beating across all metrics after its massive run higher.
Deckers +20% on good results for Hoka could be good read for Asics.


Japan Morning Connection: Gold and Silver + Soggy Semi-Caps Sets Dour Tone

<ul>
<li>US equities rebounded on Friday, snapping a recent losing streak as easing inflation concerns and renewed confidence in the AI trade lifted sentiment late in a volatile week.</li>
<li>Sony Group will acquire an additional 41% of Peanuts Holdings for about $460m, lifting ownership to 80%, consolidating the unit and booking a remeasurement gain in operating profit.</li>
<li>Nike’s earnings slump highlights China weakness and margin pressure, creating share-gain opportunities for <strong>ASICS</strong>, whose improving China margins and exposure to a healthy global running market position it favorably.</li>
</ul>


US equities rebounded on Friday, snapping a recent losing streak as easing inflation concerns and renewed confidence in the AI trade lifted sentiment late in a volatile week.
Sony Group will acquire an additional 41% of Peanuts Holdings for about $460m, lifting ownership to 80%, consolidating the unit and booking a remeasurement gain in operating profit.
Nike’s earnings slump highlights China weakness and margin pressure, creating share-gain opportunities for ASICS, whose improving China margins and exposure to a healthy global running market position it favorably.


<ul>
<li>Fed December rate cut probability at 86.9%; FOMC meets Dec 9-10.</li>
<li>Kevin Hassett emerging as frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.</li>
<li>Asics denied Puma bid rumours after a 2.2% dip, refocusing attention on its superior organic growth and premium valuation despite China consumer risks</li>
</ul>


Fed December rate cut probability at 86.9%; FOMC meets Dec 9-10.
Kevin Hassett emerging as frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
Asics denied Puma bid rumours after a 2.2% dip, refocusing attention on its superior organic growth and premium valuation despite China consumer risks


Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Asics (7936) | Geopolitics Headwinds

Japan-China relations strained after Taiwan remarks, impacting Asics' market cap and future outlook amid geopolitical tensions.

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Sustained Growth Momentum with Margin Upside

Strong financial performance with 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, led by EU and Japan, with raised FY guidance and share buyback...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Gold and Silver + Soggy Semi-Caps Sets Dour Tone

Asics may get a lift from Deckers Outdoor showing strong growth for brands outside the usual Nike/Adidas space. Lasertec's outlook guidance may...

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Late-Week Rally

US equities rebounded on Friday due to easing inflation concerns and renewed confidence in the AI trade.Nike's earnings slump in China creates...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | S&P Extends Win Streak

Fed likely to cut rates in December, Kevin Hassett may replace Powell as Fed Chair, Asics denies Puma bid rumors - stock could bounce back.

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asics (7936) | Geopolitics Headwinds

​Japan-China relations strained after Taiwan remarks, impacting Asics' market cap and future outlook amid geopolitical tensions.

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Sustained Growth Momentum with Margin Upside

Strong financial performance with 7th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, led by EU and Japan, with raised FY guidance and share buyback...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Gold and Silver + Soggy Semi-Caps Sets Dour Tone

Asics may get a lift from Deckers Outdoor showing strong growth for brands outside the usual Nike/Adidas space. Lasertec's outlook guidance may...

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Late-Week Rally

​US equities rebounded on Friday due to easing inflation concerns and renewed confidence in the AI trade.Nike's earnings slump in China creates...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | S&P Extends Win Streak

​Fed likely to cut rates in December, Kevin Hassett may replace Powell as Fed Chair, Asics denies Puma bid rumors - stock could bounce back.

Mark Chadwick

Japan-China relations strained after Taiwan remarks, impacting Asics' market cap and future outlook amid geopolitical tensions.

US equities rebounded on Friday due to easing inflation concerns and renewed confidence in the AI trade.Nike's earnings slump in China creates...

Fed likely to cut rates in December, Kevin Hassett may replace Powell as Fed Chair, Asics denies Puma bid rumors - stock could bounce back.