IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MY.Alpha <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XI18.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-01-29T07%3A43%3A42Z&amp;se=2031-01-29T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=kPsjKq9fK8jE14Jf9h8xjamls%2B24%2FOOVcFr9lijd1ig%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.06% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>. The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.</li>
<li>The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.</li>
<li>The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. </li>
</ul>


MY.Alpha reported a 5.06% ownership ratio in Raksul Inc (4384 JP). The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.
The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.
The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) has recommended a Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.
While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. 
The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. 


Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,632m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SBI, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Sanrio, Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokio Marine, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Furukawa Electric.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 21st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,632m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SBI, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Sanrio, Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokio Marine, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Furukawa Electric.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 21st): SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SBI

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ci-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26170:1" rel="noopener">Ci Medical (3540 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-water-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18073:1" rel="noopener">Air Water Inc (4088 JP)</a> at JPY1,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>This is a done deal as the offeror and irrevocable represent an 85.02% ownership ratio, which ensures that the EGM vote for share consolidation will pass. </li>
</ul>



Ci Medical (3540 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Air Water Inc (4088 JP) at JPY1,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
This is a done deal as the offeror and irrevocable represent an 85.02% ownership ratio, which ensures that the EGM vote for share consolidation will pass. 


CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 23rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,904m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kusuri No Aoki, Toyota Industries, Fujikura, Sompo, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Furukawa Electric, Softbank, Advantest, Mizuho Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 23rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,904m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kusuri No Aoki, Toyota Industries, Fujikura, Sompo, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Furukawa Electric, Softbank, Advantest, Mizuho Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 23rd): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kusuri No Aoki, Toyota Industries

Japan

ASKUL Corporation sells office equipment products to medium and small sized business offices via the Internet and facsimiles.  The Company provides next day delivery services throughout Japan.

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Askul Corp (2678 JP)

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 21st): SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SBI

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), SBI...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CI Medical (3540 JP): Air Water (4088 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

This is a done deal as the offeror and irrevocable represent an 85.02% ownership ratio, which ensures that the EGM vote for share consolidation...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 23rd): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kusuri No Aoki, Toyota Industries

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Kusuri No Aoki (3549 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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