Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Ctt-Correios De Portugal Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises worldwide semiconductor market outlook upward again just two months after initial dizzying revision • bnode | lowers FY26 adj. EBIT guidance due to strikes and Paxon • Austrian Post | 1H26 revenue up, earnings down as expected; outlook reaffirmed • E-commerce & Logistics | Cainiao launches ‘Global 3-Day Delivery’ on 15 routes</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises worldwide semiconductor market outlook upward again just two months after initial dizzying revision • bnode | lowers FY26 adj. EBIT guidance due to strikes and Paxon • Austrian Post | 1H26 revenue up, earnings down as expected; outlook reaffirmed • E-commerce & Logistics | Cainiao launches ‘Global 3-Day Delivery’ on 15 routes

CTT-Correios de Portugal SA - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings call gives a good advanced warning of similar companies' reports</li>
<li>The company's downturn is the worst in the past 13 years</li>
<li>Not all chip companies will suffer this downturn, and few will do as badly as commodity memory makers.  Tool makers will feel the impact next year.</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings call gives a good advanced warning of similar companies' reports
The company's downturn is the worst in the past 13 years
Not all chip companies will suffer this downturn, and few will do as badly as commodity memory makers.  Tool makers will feel the impact next year.


<ul>
<li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger</li>
<li>AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 </li>
<li>AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus </li>
</ul>


In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger
AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26 guidance after better than expected 2Q26 
AkzoNobel | PPG’s 2Q26 looks solid, but demand outlook remains the focus 


Netherlands

ASM International N.V. develops, manufactures, markets, and services machines used to produce semiconductors.  The Company manufactures machines that process silicon wafers, and assemble and package semiconductors.  ASM operates in Europe, the United States, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia.

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Asm International Nv (ASM NA)

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

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Jim Handy

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

CTT-Correios de Portugal SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises worldwide semiconductor market outlook upward...

The IDEA!

Micron Earnings Give Semi Market Outlook

Micron's just-announced revenues indicate trouble today for its peers and trouble next year for tool makers, but other sectors should fare much...

Jim Handy

What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Axalta's strong set of 2Q26 results supportive for the proposed merger AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams raises FY26...

The IDEA!

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