Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment</li>
<li>For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.</li>
<li>WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI &amp; technology transition related increases </li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment
For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.
WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI &amp; technology transition related increases 


Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Jordan Schneider joins Ben Beharon and Jay Goldberg on the podcast Moments to discuss China restrictions drama and semiconductor manufacturing equipment controls</li><li>They discuss the impact of the new rules on companies like Nvidia and the potential unintended consequences, such as increased regulation for startups and new challenges for cybersecurity</li><li>Schneider also highlights the importance of the US government's export control regime in shaping the future of AI innovation and competition between the US and China</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Jordan Schneider joins Ben Beharon and Jay Goldberg on the podcast Moments to discuss China restrictions drama and semiconductor manufacturing equipment controlsThey discuss the impact of the new rules on companies like Nvidia and the potential unintended consequences, such as increased regulation for startups and new challenges for cybersecuritySchneider also highlights the importance of the US government's export control regime in shaping the future of AI innovation and competition between the US and ChinaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 101 Part 1: Discussion with Jordan Schneider (China Talk) on New Semi Regulations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following its ADR listing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc-a4e8e2ec-1a75-4752-b58c-eaa0d074d145" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50283:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (SKHY US)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworks-solutions-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6121:1" rel="noopener">Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are 2 stocks with over a yard and a half to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc-a4e8e2ec-1a75-4752-b58c-eaa0d074d145" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50283:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (SKHY US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kla-tencor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1115:1" rel="noopener">KLA-Tencor (KLAC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding (ASML US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Following its ADR listing, SK Hynix (SKHY US) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are 2 stocks with over a yard and a half to trade.
The largest flows will be in SK Hynix (SKHY US), NVIDIA (NVDA US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Micron Technology (MU US), KLA-Tencor (KLAC US) and ASML Holding (ASML US). 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: SK Hynix ADR Added as Trade Nears US$9bn

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI boom reflected in record fund ownership in ASML Holding NV (ASML NA), NVIDIA Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).</li>
<li>The 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks have hit a record underweight of -6.83% below the MSCI ACWI index.  They collectively account for 11.2% of the average Global fund.</li>
<li>Recovery Stocks: The old guard of At&amp;T Inc (T US), International Business Machines (IBM US) and General Electric (GE US) appear to be gathering some support from active Global funds.</li>
</ul>


AI boom reflected in record fund ownership in ASML Holding NV (ASML NA), NVIDIA Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).
The 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks have hit a record underweight of -6.83% below the MSCI ACWI index.  They collectively account for 11.2% of the average Global fund.
Recovery Stocks: The old guard of At&amp;T Inc (T US), International Business Machines (IBM US) and General Electric (GE US) appear to be gathering some support from active Global funds.


Global Stock Positioning:  MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Semi WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering...

William Keating

Episode 101 Part 1: Discussion with Jordan Schneider (China Talk) on New Semi Regulations

Jordan Schneider discusses the new AI technology restrictions in China, including the tightening controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment...

The Circuit

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: SK Hynix ADR Added as Trade Nears US$9bn

SK Hynix ADR replaces Skyworks in the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. Watch the Hynix ADR...

Brian Freitas

Global Stock Positioning: MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

The latest in stock-level investor positioning among over 300 active Global funds. We explore the AI boom, key over/underweights, Tobacco's...

Steven Holden

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Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where's The AI Effect?

Semi WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering...

William Keating

Episode 101 Part 1: Discussion with Jordan Schneider (China Talk) on New Semi Regulations

Jordan Schneider discusses the new AI technology restrictions in China, including the tightening controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment...

The Circuit

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: SK Hynix ADR Added as Trade Nears US$9bn

SK Hynix ADR replaces Skyworks in the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. Watch the Hynix ADR...

Brian Freitas

Global Stock Positioning: MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

The latest in stock-level investor positioning among over 300 active Global funds. We explore the AI boom, key over/underweights, Tobacco's...

Steven Holden

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...