Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASRT has not had any news to rekindle investor interest since reporting second quarter results. ASRT is scheduled to report third quarter results on November 8, 2023</li>
<li>Ahead of the news, we are readjusting our expectations for Indocin. We are minimizing the revenue potential from Indocin in our earnings model.</li>
<li>Going forward, Rolvedon becomes the primary revenue generator. ASRT should generate positive net income with Rolvedon sales ramping</li>
</ul>


ASRT has not had any news to rekindle investor interest since reporting second quarter results. ASRT is scheduled to report third quarter results on November 8, 2023
Ahead of the news, we are readjusting our expectations for Indocin. We are minimizing the revenue potential from Indocin in our earnings model.
Going forward, Rolvedon becomes the primary revenue generator. ASRT should generate positive net income with Rolvedon sales ramping


<ul>
<li>ASRT reported better than expected second quarter revenue, but surprised investors with the announcement of a generic competitor for Indocin leading to management pulling guidance.</li>
<li>Indocin has been on the market for many years and generic competition was likely. Yet, there is no information on how well the competitor could manufacture enough indomethacin </li>
<li>We do not believe the third quarter is at risk and we doubt more generic competitors would surface.</li>
</ul>


ASRT reported better than expected second quarter revenue, but surprised investors with the announcement of a generic competitor for Indocin leading to management pulling guidance.
Indocin has been on the market for many years and generic competition was likely. Yet, there is no information on how well the competitor could manufacture enough indomethacin 
We do not believe the third quarter is at risk and we doubt more generic competitors would surface.


ASRT: Generic Risk Extends Timeline, PT $6

<ul>
<li>ASRT reporting better than expected first quarter results were positively overshadowed by the increase in sales of ROLVEDON at Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI)</li>
<li>There had been concerns ROLVEDON sales would not grow fast enough to warrant the valuation ASRT was paying for SPPI. Those concerns were squashed</li>
<li>ASRT reported first quarter revenue of $42.5 million compared to our estimate of $37.8 million</li>
</ul>


ASRT reporting better than expected first quarter results were positively overshadowed by the increase in sales of ROLVEDON at Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI)
There had been concerns ROLVEDON sales would not grow fast enough to warrant the valuation ASRT was paying for SPPI. Those concerns were squashed
ASRT reported first quarter revenue of $42.5 million compared to our estimate of $37.8 million


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-pharm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12476:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS)</a> is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.</li>
<li>Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.</li>
<li>Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.</li>
</ul>


With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.
Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.
Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.


Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

<ul>
<li>ASRT is purchasing Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) in an all-stock transaction that adds ROLVEDON to its product portfolio.</li>
<li>The initial reaction to the deal has been materially negative after ASRT added it would maintain a majority of SPPI's operating expenses.</li>
<li>ASRT's management has been looking for an asset that would help diversify the revenue stream away from Indocin. The purchase of SPPI achieves such a goal</li>
</ul>


ASRT is purchasing Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) in an all-stock transaction that adds ROLVEDON to its product portfolio.
The initial reaction to the deal has been materially negative after ASRT added it would maintain a majority of SPPI's operating expenses.
ASRT's management has been looking for an asset that would help diversify the revenue stream away from Indocin. The purchase of SPPI achieves such a goal


United States

Assertio Holdings, Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers oral suspension, suppositories, tablets, nasal spray, and capsules. Assertio Holdings serves clients in the United States.

Assertio Holdings (ASRT US)

ASRT: Minimizing Indocin, PT $4

We are minimizing Indocin on a go forward basis. Rolvedon should continue to grow to help maintain profitability. Investor sentiment is not likely...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Generic Risk Extends Timeline, PT $6

ASRT disclosed there is generic competition for Indocin. There would be a few quarters before ASRT fully feels the competitive pressures from a...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Asserting a New Price Target, $10

Q1 results were better than expected and affirm our investment thesis of how ASRT could continue to generate free cash flow. SPPI, which ASRT is...

BWS Financial Inc

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

ASRT: Rolling with Spectrum

ROLVEDON achieving sales materially higher than the current street consensus is the catalyst. The structure of the deal and the commentary from the...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Minimizing Indocin, PT $4

We are minimizing Indocin on a go forward basis. Rolvedon should continue to grow to help maintain profitability. Investor sentiment is not likely...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Generic Risk Extends Timeline, PT $6

ASRT disclosed there is generic competition for Indocin. There would be a few quarters before ASRT fully feels the competitive pressures from a...

BWS Financial Inc

ASRT: Asserting a New Price Target, $10

Q1 results were better than expected and affirm our investment thesis of how ASRT could continue to generate free cash flow. SPPI, which ASRT is...

BWS Financial Inc

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

​Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

ASRT: Rolling with Spectrum

ROLVEDON achieving sales materially higher than the current street consensus is the catalyst. The structure of the deal and the commentary from the...

BWS Financial Inc

Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...