New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Property sector accounts for around 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with variations in sustainability progress across New Zealand's listed property companies.</li><li>Disclosures broadly meet regulatory requirements but often lack a clear narrative on how climate risks and opportunities may affect future outlooks.</li><li>Greenhouse gas inventories reflect the maturity of reporting practices more than climate transition risks, with inconsistencies in Scope 3 emissions reporting.</li></ul>

The Property sector accounts for around 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with variations in sustainability progress across New Zealand's listed property companies.Disclosures broadly meet regulatory requirements but often lack a clear narrative on how climate risks and opportunities may affect future outlooks.Greenhouse gas inventories reflect the maturity of reporting practices more than climate transition risks, with inconsistencies in Scope 3 emissions reporting.

Insights from Climate Disclosures Property Sector

<ul><li>February was a weak month for listed property vehicles (LPV) which followed the market lower.</li><li>The February reporting season was largely unsurprising. We believe the sector continues to look attractive given: (1) solid earnings outlook with tax and interest rate headwinds behind us, (2) stable portfolio metrics, (3) high replacement cost limiting new supply, and (4) a stabilisation in book asset values versus the share prices implying further declines.</li><li>The sector will, however, exit this cycle with full gearing and as such may not be able to take advantage of counter-cyclical growth opportunities. </li></ul>

February was a weak month for listed property vehicles (LPV) which followed the market lower.The February reporting season was largely unsurprising. We believe the sector continues to look attractive given: (1) solid earnings outlook with tax and interest rate headwinds behind us, (2) stable portfolio metrics, (3) high replacement cost limiting new supply, and (4) a stabilisation in book asset values versus the share prices implying further declines.The sector will, however, exit this cycle with full gearing and as such may not be able to take advantage of counter-cyclical growth opportunities. 

Real Estate Reflections - Bouncing Along the Bottom

<ul>
<li>January was a solid start to 2025 for the listed property sector.</li>
<li>While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.</li>
<li>We still remain constructive on the sector in 2025. </li>
</ul>


January was a solid start to 2025 for the listed property sector.
While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.
We still remain constructive on the sector in 2025. 


Real Estate Reflections - Five Themes for 2025

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.</li><li>1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.</li><li>While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. </li></ul>

November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. 

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Asset Plus (APL) reported a small 1H25 loss, however, the result itself is largely irrelevant, with the market's focus firmly on the sale of APL's final asset (Munroe Lane) and the return of capital. </li><li>The final milestone is the sale of Munroe Lane, which will dictate the size of the capital return.</li><li>Our scenarios suggest between NZ28–35cps (pre-special dividend) should be achievable. </li></ul>

Asset Plus (APL) reported a small 1H25 loss, however, the result itself is largely irrelevant, with the market's focus firmly on the sale of APL's final asset (Munroe Lane) and the return of capital. The final milestone is the sale of Munroe Lane, which will dictate the size of the capital return.Our scenarios suggest between NZ28–35cps (pre-special dividend) should be achievable. 

Asset Plus - 1H25: Waiting for the Wind Up

New Zealand

Asset Plus Limited carries on the business of a property company that invests in and manages commercial, industrial and retail properties. The Company's investment property portfolio consists of retail, commercial, and industrial properties located in New Zealand.

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Asset Plus (APL NZ)

Insights from Climate Disclosures Property Sector

The Property sector accounts for around 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with variations in sustainability progress across New Zealand's...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Bouncing Along the Bottom

February was a weak month for listed property vehicles (LPV) which followed the market lower. The February reporting season was largely unsurprising.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Five Themes for 2025

While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and...

Forsyth Barr

Asset Plus - 1H25: Waiting for the Wind Up

Asset Plus (APL) reported a small 1H25 loss, however, the result itself is largely irrelevant, with the market's focus firmly on the sale...

Forsyth Barr

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