New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>January was a solid start to 2025 for the listed property sector.</li>
<li>While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.</li>
<li>We still remain constructive on the sector in 2025. </li>
</ul>


January was a solid start to 2025 for the listed property sector.
While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.
We still remain constructive on the sector in 2025. 


Real Estate Reflections - Five Themes for 2025

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.</li><li>1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.</li><li>While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. </li></ul>

November was a soft month for the property sector as interest rate volatility continued.1H25 results were largely as expected with most companies seeing: (1) slight vacancy rise, softening tenant demand and slowing market rent growth, reflecting the economic backdrop, (2) debt costs beginning to decline, and (3) asset values and cap rates stabilising. We expect these themes will continue to play out over the next year.While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and a lower earnings multiple than the broader market. 

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

<ul><li>October was a solid month for NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs).</li><li>The Fast-track Approvals Bill breathed some life into Winton's (WIN) Sunfield project, after having its initial approval pathway declined, while Kiwi Property's (KPG) Drury development and Precinct's (PCT) downtown carpark project were both included in the bill.</li><li>Six companies are reporting interim results in November, where we expect higher interest and tax bills to outweigh top-line rental growth across most of the sector. </li></ul>

October was a solid month for NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs).The Fast-track Approvals Bill breathed some life into Winton's (WIN) Sunfield project, after having its initial approval pathway declined, while Kiwi Property's (KPG) Drury development and Precinct's (PCT) downtown carpark project were both included in the bill.Six companies are reporting interim results in November, where we expect higher interest and tax bills to outweigh top-line rental growth across most of the sector. 

Real Estate Reflections - Fast Track to Reporting Season

<ul><li>Following a historically strong two months in July and August, the NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs) gave back some of their gains in September.</li><li>We continue to expect the sector to perform well in what is likely to be a period of sustained interest rate cuts.</li><li>There will be some bumps along the way, as prior cycles have shown weak economic activity eventually flows through to higher vacancy and lower rents. </li></ul>

Following a historically strong two months in July and August, the NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs) gave back some of their gains in September.We continue to expect the sector to perform well in what is likely to be a period of sustained interest rate cuts.There will be some bumps along the way, as prior cycles have shown weak economic activity eventually flows through to higher vacancy and lower rents. 

Real Estate Reflections - Snakes and Ladders

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>August was another strong month for listed property vehicles (LPV) as the RBNZ cut the official cash rate mid-month.</li><li>Over the last two months the sector has returned +13%. This is the largest two month return since August 2009 (+12%).</li><li>Reported results and forward guidance delivered during the month were largely in line with expectations, though some outlook comments were tempered by the economic backdrop.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

August was another strong month for listed property vehicles (LPV) as the RBNZ cut the official cash rate mid-month.Over the last two months the sector has returned +13%. This is the largest two month return since August 2009 (+12%).Reported results and forward guidance delivered during the month were largely in line with expectations, though some outlook comments were tempered by the economic backdrop.

Real Estate Reflections - Road to Recovery

New Zealand

Asset Plus Limited carries on the business of a property company that invests in and manages commercial, industrial and retail properties. The Company's investment property portfolio consists of retail, commercial, and industrial properties located in New Zealand.

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Asset Plus (APL NZ)

Real Estate Reflections - Five Themes for 2025

While we had expected 2024 to be an inflection year for the sector, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates had other ideas.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - From One Cycle to the Next

While the property sector continues to trade at compressed spreads to long-bond yields, it is trading on wider yields than some defensive peers and...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Fast Track to Reporting Season

Our preferred LPVs are hospital landlord Vital Healthcare (VHP) and premium office owner PCT. We are also OUTPERFORM rated on Asset Plus (APL)...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Snakes and Ladders

Following a historically strong two months in July and August, the NZ listed property vehicles (LPVs) gave back some of their gains in September.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Road to Recovery

August was another strong month for listed property vehicles (LPV) as the RBNZ cut the official cash rate mid-month. Over the last two months the...

Forsyth Barr

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