Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive license agreement with AstraZeneca for the global development, manufacture, and commercialization bad cholesterol lowering drug candidate YS2302018.</li>
<li>Ono Pharmaceutical entered into a license agreement with LigaChem Biosciences for LCB97, a pre-clinical stage antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) aimed at being a first-in-class drug in the field of solid tumors.</li>
<li>The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has issued final ruling in favor of Hugel. This should accelerate Hugel’s business expansion in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


CSPC Pharmaceutical entered into an exclusive license agreement with AstraZeneca for the global development, manufacture, and commercialization bad cholesterol lowering drug candidate YS2302018.
Ono Pharmaceutical entered into a license agreement with LigaChem Biosciences for LCB97, a pre-clinical stage antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) aimed at being a first-in-class drug in the field of solid tumors.
The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has issued final ruling in favor of Hugel. This should accelerate Hugel’s business expansion in the U.S.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 13)- CSPC Pharma, Hugel, Astellas, Ono Pharma, and Hanmi Pharm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> announced Q1FY27 result, with revenue and all profit categories achieving record-high for the first quarter, driven by existing businesses and integration effects from acquired businesses.</li>
<li>Progress rate of key parameters of Q1FY27 against H1FY27 guidance is strong, thereby enhancing our conviction on the company meeting guidance.</li>
<li>Addition of growth drivers in multiple QOL diseases that are not affected by fluctuations in infectious disease outbreaks, together with contributions from acquired products should lead to accelerated profitable growth.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) announced Q1FY27 result, with revenue and all profit categories achieving record-high for the first quarter, driven by existing businesses and integration effects from acquired businesses.
Progress rate of key parameters of Q1FY27 against H1FY27 guidance is strong, thereby enhancing our conviction on the company meeting guidance.
Addition of growth drivers in multiple QOL diseases that are not affected by fluctuations in infectious disease outbreaks, together with contributions from acquired products should lead to accelerated profitable growth.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Strong Start to FY27 as Business Diversification Is Yielding Result

<ul>
<li>Since the BoJ interest rate hike in July, the Yen appreciated ~5% to ¥142.74. Considerable amount of appreciation may be dilutive on the overall performance of export-oriented industry.</li>
<li>Top healthcare players have assumed a higher exchange rate (than the current prevailing rate) for their respective full-year FY25 guidance.</li>
<li>With benefit of favorable foreign exchange gradually fading and potentially diminishing guidance, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Since the BoJ interest rate hike in July, the Yen appreciated ~5% to ¥142.74. Considerable amount of appreciation may be dilutive on the overall performance of export-oriented industry.
Top healthcare players have assumed a higher exchange rate (than the current prevailing rate) for their respective full-year FY25 guidance.
With benefit of favorable foreign exchange gradually fading and potentially diminishing guidance, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.


Japan Healthcare: Strong Yen to Negatively Impact Financial Performance; Volatility to Continue

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of urology, immunology including transplantation and infectious diseases, oncology, euroscience and DM complications and metabolic diseases. The Company researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia.

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JT)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 13)- CSPC Pharma, Hugel, Astellas, Ono Pharma, and Hanmi Pharm

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Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Strong Start to FY27 as Business Diversification Is Yielding Result

Shionogi announced Q1FY27 result, with revenue and all profit categories achieving record-high for the first quarter, driven by existing businesses...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Healthcare: Strong Yen to Negatively Impact Financial Performance; Volatility to Continue

Healthcare players in Japan are expected to adjust FY25 guidance due to exchange rate appreciation, requiring investors to be cautious in their...

Tina Banerjee

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

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