Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported a rise of 15% YoY in revenue to ¥663.3B. Mainstay alongside new products help maintain growth momentum in both domestic and overseas market.</li>
<li>2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue expected to increase 7% YoY. Core profit numbers expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each. Achieved almost 43-46% of their 2026 headline guidance numbers.</li>
<li>Although Chugai is still hugely dependent on Hemlibra export, new launches are slowly gaining momentum. Moreover, new breakthrough products like orforglipron will help provide some traction to the growth momentum.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported a rise of 15% YoY in revenue to ¥663.3B. Mainstay alongside new products help maintain growth momentum in both domestic and overseas market.
2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue expected to increase 7% YoY. Core profit numbers expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each. Achieved almost 43-46% of their 2026 headline guidance numbers.
Although Chugai is still hugely dependent on Hemlibra export, new launches are slowly gaining momentum. Moreover, new breakthrough products like orforglipron will help provide some traction to the growth momentum.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

<ul>
<li>Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced positive topline results for Phase 3 study comparing zasocitinib (TAK-279), an investigational, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, to deucravacitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.</li>
<li>Takeda also presented additional results from two pivotal studies, showing oveporexton (TAK-861), an OX2R-selective agonist, improved daily functioning as well as cognitive and sleep-related symptoms associated with narcolepsy type 1.</li>
<li>Takeda’s pipeline is positioned to support both the near-term and long-term sustained growth of the company.</li>
</ul>


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced positive topline results for Phase 3 study comparing zasocitinib (TAK-279), an investigational, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, to deucravacitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.
Takeda also presented additional results from two pivotal studies, showing oveporexton (TAK-861), an OX2R-selective agonist, improved daily functioning as well as cognitive and sleep-related symptoms associated with narcolepsy type 1.
Takeda’s pipeline is positioned to support both the near-term and long-term sustained growth of the company.


Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Tina Banerjee

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

​Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Tina Banerjee

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...