Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> has announced 9MFY26 result, with revenue declining 3% YoY to ¥3,411B, dragged by Vyvanse. Growth and launch products revenue grew 7%, with improving QoQ growth rate.</li>
<li>The company raised its full-year forecasts based on cost discipline and FX tailwind, while its revenue management guidance has been updated primarily due to the impact of Vyvanse generics.</li>
<li>Takeda has multiple late-stage programs with multibillion-dollar peak revenue potential. The company is poised to launch three drugs in the next 18 months, setting it on a new growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) has announced 9MFY26 result, with revenue declining 3% YoY to ¥3,411B, dragged by Vyvanse. Growth and launch products revenue grew 7%, with improving QoQ growth rate.
The company raised its full-year forecasts based on cost discipline and FX tailwind, while its revenue management guidance has been updated primarily due to the impact of Vyvanse generics.
Takeda has multiple late-stage programs with multibillion-dollar peak revenue potential. The company is poised to launch three drugs in the next 18 months, setting it on a new growth trajectory.


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Show; Guidance Revision Amid New Leg of Growth

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported Hemlibra overseas sales of ¥344.5B (27% of total sales), up 12% YoY. Higher volumes boosted Actemra revenue (up 20% YoY) amid declining export unit price.</li>
<li>2026 guidance announced. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly has applied for approval from the US FDA to market orforglipron for obesity. The drug high sales potential and is expected to win an approval sometime in 2026.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported Hemlibra overseas sales of ¥344.5B (27% of total sales), up 12% YoY. Higher volumes boosted Actemra revenue (up 20% YoY) amid declining export unit price.
2026 guidance announced. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.
Eli Lilly has applied for approval from the US FDA to market orforglipron for obesity. The drug high sales potential and is expected to win an approval sometime in 2026.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra, Actemra Hold the Show Together, Orforglipron Is The Next Big Draw

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reported that an entity owned by the CEO is considering an MBO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a> at a valuation of around JPY450 billion.</li>
<li>Assuming that the rumoured valuation refers to market cap based on outstanding shares, it suggests an offer around JPY6,000, a 15.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer of JPY6,000 is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.  </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported that an entity owned by the CEO is considering an MBO of Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) at a valuation of around JPY450 billion.
Assuming that the rumoured valuation refers to market cap based on outstanding shares, it suggests an offer around JPY6,000, a 15.4% premium to the last close.
Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer of JPY6,000 is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.  


Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> is acquiring rare neurodegenerative disease drug Radicava for $2.5B. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive in FY27, adding ~$700M in annual global sales.</li>
<li>This acquisition will solidify Shionogi’s strategic focus in rare disease and immediately establish a strong rare disease commercial platform in the U.S. market.</li>
<li>Shionogi has received approval in Japan for inlicensed drug Zurzuvae for the indication of depression and depressive state.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) is acquiring rare neurodegenerative disease drug Radicava for $2.5B. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive in FY27, adding ~$700M in annual global sales.
This acquisition will solidify Shionogi’s strategic focus in rare disease and immediately establish a strong rare disease commercial platform in the U.S. market.
Shionogi has received approval in Japan for inlicensed drug Zurzuvae for the indication of depression and depressive state.


Shionogi (4507 JP): $2.5B ALS Drug Buyout and New Approval To Accelerate Portfolio Diversification

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> will present updated clinical trial data of Enzomenib (for AML) and Nuvisertib (for Meylofibrosis). Both drug candidates hold strong future potential.</li>
<li>The company revised FY26 revenue guidance upward to ¥429B backed by continued strong sales in North America (+56% to ¥163B). Orgovyx witnessed solid patient growth while Gemtesa improved market share.</li>
<li>After largely remaining beaten down in the past few years Sumitomo stock has only begun to gain momentum in recent past. We feel it has still got an upside potential.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) will present updated clinical trial data of Enzomenib (for AML) and Nuvisertib (for Meylofibrosis). Both drug candidates hold strong future potential.
The company revised FY26 revenue guidance upward to ¥429B backed by continued strong sales in North America (+56% to ¥163B). Orgovyx witnessed solid patient growth while Gemtesa improved market share.
After largely remaining beaten down in the past few years Sumitomo stock has only begun to gain momentum in recent past. We feel it has still got an upside potential.


2026 High Conviction: Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) – Enzomenib Progress and Reboot Strategy Hold Key

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Show; Guidance Revision Amid New Leg of Growth

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 9MFY26 result with revenue declining 3%. The company raised FY26 forecasts on cost discipline and FX tailwind....

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra, Actemra Hold the Show Together, Orforglipron Is The Next Big Draw

Chugai Pharmaceutical reports strong overseas sales in 2025. Announces 2026 guidance. FDA approval for obesity drug orforglipron will be the next...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer at the rumoured JPY450bn valuation is attractive compared to precedent...

Arun George

Shionogi (4507 JP): $2.5B ALS Drug Buyout and New Approval To Accelerate Portfolio Diversification

Shionogi acquires rare neurodegenerative drug Radicava for $2.5B, which is expected to boost annual global sales by $700M. The company got...

Tina Banerjee

2026 High Conviction: Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) – Enzomenib Progress and Reboot Strategy Hold Key

Sumitomo Pharma is well on track focused on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers. We feel even after the run up...

Tina Banerjee

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Show; Guidance Revision Amid New Leg of Growth

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 9MFY26 result with revenue declining 3%. The company raised FY26 forecasts on cost discipline and FX tailwind....

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra, Actemra Hold the Show Together, Orforglipron Is The Next Big Draw

​Chugai Pharmaceutical reports strong overseas sales in 2025. Announces 2026 guidance. FDA approval for obesity drug orforglipron will be the next...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer at the rumoured JPY450bn valuation is attractive compared to precedent...

Arun George

Shionogi (4507 JP): $2.5B ALS Drug Buyout and New Approval To Accelerate Portfolio Diversification

​Shionogi acquires rare neurodegenerative drug Radicava for $2.5B, which is expected to boost annual global sales by $700M. The company got...

Tina Banerjee

2026 High Conviction: Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) – Enzomenib Progress and Reboot Strategy Hold Key

​Sumitomo Pharma is well on track focused on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers. We feel even after the run up...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 9MFY26 result with revenue declining 3%. The company raised FY26 forecasts on cost discipline and FX tailwind....

Chugai Pharmaceutical reports strong overseas sales in 2025. Announces 2026 guidance. FDA approval for obesity drug orforglipron will be the next...

Shionogi acquires rare neurodegenerative drug Radicava for $2.5B, which is expected to boost annual global sales by $700M. The company got...

Sumitomo Pharma is well on track focused on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers. We feel even after the run up...