Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During Q1FY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> reported 55% YoY increase in operating profit to ¥21B, on just 7% YoY growth in revenue to ¥203B. The company reiterated FY guidance.</li>
<li>During Q1FY26, Leqembi revenue increased 269% YoY and 57% QoQ to ¥23B, driven by growth across all the regions. Eisai has guided for FY26 Leqembi revenue of ¥77B (+73% YoY).</li>
<li>The U.S. approval of Leqembi SC-AI maintenance dosing and the drug’s European launch are the key near-term triggers.</li>
</ul>


During Q1FY26, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 55% YoY increase in operating profit to ¥21B, on just 7% YoY growth in revenue to ¥203B. The company reiterated FY guidance.
During Q1FY26, Leqembi revenue increased 269% YoY and 57% QoQ to ¥23B, driven by growth across all the regions. Eisai has guided for FY26 Leqembi revenue of ¥77B (+73% YoY).
The U.S. approval of Leqembi SC-AI maintenance dosing and the drug’s European launch are the key near-term triggers.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Impressive 1Q Result; Subcutaneous Leqembi Is Key for Future Growth

<ul>
<li>During Q1FY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a>  reported revenue of ¥127.5B, an increase of 8% YoY. Opdivo witnessed 8% decrease in revenue to ¥29.4B mainly due to increased competition.  </li>
<li>Opdivo is facing competition from Keytruda. Ono guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.</li>
<li>In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.</li>
</ul>


During Q1FY26, Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)  reported revenue of ¥127.5B, an increase of 8% YoY. Opdivo witnessed 8% decrease in revenue to ¥29.4B mainly due to increased competition.  
Opdivo is facing competition from Keytruda. Ono guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.
In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.


Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> reported 19% YoY (negative Fx impact of 7%) revenue growth during Q1FY26 to ¥108B, mainly driven by North America.</li>
<li>Orgovyx witnessed growth in medicare patients due to reduction in out-of-pocket caps and Gemtesa on the other hand improved market share employing price focussed strategy.</li>
<li>Sumitomo Pharma is well on track moving ahead of the significant losses suffered in FY23 and FY24, focusing on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 19% YoY (negative Fx impact of 7%) revenue growth during Q1FY26 to ¥108B, mainly driven by North America.
Orgovyx witnessed growth in medicare patients due to reduction in out-of-pocket caps and Gemtesa on the other hand improved market share employing price focussed strategy.
Sumitomo Pharma is well on track moving ahead of the significant losses suffered in FY23 and FY24, focusing on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> sees 7% revenue growth in 1H25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+9% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify franchise were strong.</li>
<li>Otsuka kept 2025 revenue guidance unchanged, the company raised guidance for business, operating, and net profits for 2025 mainly due to lower than anticipated operating expenses due to Fx impact.</li>
<li>Otsuka stated that pharmaceutical business has no impact by additional US tariffs. Two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, new launches should further drive growth.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) sees 7% revenue growth in 1H25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+9% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify franchise were strong.
Otsuka kept 2025 revenue guidance unchanged, the company raised guidance for business, operating, and net profits for 2025 mainly due to lower than anticipated operating expenses due to Fx impact.
Otsuka stated that pharmaceutical business has no impact by additional US tariffs. Two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, new launches should further drive growth.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Impressive 1Q Result; Subcutaneous Leqembi Is Key for Future Growth

Eisai gets FDA nod for once weekly Leqembi subcutaneous autoinjector for maintenance dosing. The introduction of easy-to-use SC-AI will allow for...

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

Sumitomo Pharma sees 19% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY26 driven by North America. The company is well on track for moving ahead of the significant...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

Otsuka reports 7% revenue growth in 1H25 driven by strong pharmaceutical business. The company maintains 2025 revenue guidance but raises profit...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Impressive 1Q Result; Subcutaneous Leqembi Is Key for Future Growth

Eisai gets FDA nod for once weekly Leqembi subcutaneous autoinjector for maintenance dosing. The introduction of easy-to-use SC-AI will allow for...

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

​Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

​Sumitomo Pharma sees 19% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY26 driven by North America. The company is well on track for moving ahead of the significant...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

​Otsuka reports 7% revenue growth in 1H25 driven by strong pharmaceutical business. The company maintains 2025 revenue guidance but raises profit...

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Sumitomo Pharma sees 19% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY26 driven by North America. The company is well on track for moving ahead of the significant...

Otsuka reports 7% revenue growth in 1H25 driven by strong pharmaceutical business. The company maintains 2025 revenue guidance but raises profit...