Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Cerebras Systems  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cerebras Systems, a fast-growing maker of wafer-scale AI chips, which power the world’s largest supercomputers, will reveal IPO terms soon.</li>
<li>Given the company’s hyper-growth trajectory, $1B+ deal with UAE’s G42 and unique architecture, I expect Cerebras Systems is likely to get a premium valuation.  </li>
<li>The AI company plans to raise up to $1B while selling stockholders will offer additional Class A shares in this IPO.</li>
</ul>


Cerebras Systems, a fast-growing maker of wafer-scale AI chips, which power the world’s largest supercomputers, will reveal IPO terms soon.
Given the company’s hyper-growth trajectory, $1B+ deal with UAE’s G42 and unique architecture, I expect Cerebras Systems is likely to get a premium valuation.  
The AI company plans to raise up to $1B while selling stockholders will offer additional Class A shares in this IPO.


Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

<ul>
<li>Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.</li>
<li>The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. </li>
<li>Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.</li>
</ul>


Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.
The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. 
Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.


Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs announced financial results for 1Q’FY24 in May. According to IPO prospectus, ~5.9M shares became eligible for sale following public release of earnings for the first quarter of FY24.</li>
<li>The high-growth semiconductor company filed form S-8 on May 8, 2024. The selling stockholders, including current employees and service providers, offered additional ~3M shares as early lock-up expired.</li>
<li>Astera Labs shares currently trade at rich multiples of ~37x EV/FY24E Revenue and ~25x EV/FY25E Revenue on my revised forecasts.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs announced financial results for 1Q’FY24 in May. According to IPO prospectus, ~5.9M shares became eligible for sale following public release of earnings for the first quarter of FY24.
The high-growth semiconductor company filed form S-8 on May 8, 2024. The selling stockholders, including current employees and service providers, offered additional ~3M shares as early lock-up expired.
Astera Labs shares currently trade at rich multiples of ~37x EV/FY24E Revenue and ~25x EV/FY25E Revenue on my revised forecasts.


Astera Labs: 1Q’FY24 GAAP Net Loss Could Disappoint Investors, Selling Stockholders Offer ~3M Shares

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs, an overvalued fabless semiconductor company, has completed its IPO and raised ~$565M of net proceeds in the offering. The IPO was priced at $36/share.</li>
<li>Astera Labs shares jumped 70%+ in their first trading day and finished session at $62.03. The stock peaked at $95.21 on Tuesday and fell ~21% over the next 2 days.</li>
<li>According to their prospectus, ~5.9M shares of Astera Labs will be available for sale following the public release of earnings for 1Q’24, which I expect to be announced in April.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs, an overvalued fabless semiconductor company, has completed its IPO and raised ~$565M of net proceeds in the offering. The IPO was priced at $36/share.
Astera Labs shares jumped 70%+ in their first trading day and finished session at $62.03. The stock peaked at $95.21 on Tuesday and fell ~21% over the next 2 days.
According to their prospectus, ~5.9M shares of Astera Labs will be available for sale following the public release of earnings for 1Q’24, which I expect to be announced in April.


Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale

United States

Astera Labs, Inc. provides semiconductor-based connectivity solutions. The Company develops and deploys intelligent connectivity platforms built for cloud and AI infrastructure. Astera Labs serves customers in the United States, Canada, China, Taiwan, and Israel.

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Astera Labs (ALAB US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

In my follow-up piece, I discuss Cerebras Systems valuation analysis, including peers, multiples and the company’s revenues forecast for 2024 and...

Andrei Zakharov

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

Cerebras Systems, a manufacturer of the largest AI chip ever built and hardware company that launched supercomputers in the United States, filed...

Andrei Zakharov

Astera Labs: 1Q’FY24 GAAP Net Loss Could Disappoint Investors, Selling Stockholders Offer ~3M Shares

Astera Labs shares underperformed and fell ~24% in May: 1Q’FY24 GAAP net loss could disappoint investors and the selling stockholders may sell...

Andrei Zakharov

Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale

Astera Labs stock currently trades at 60x my 2024 revenue estimate of $215M and I view valuation multiples as unsustainable given upcoming early...

Andrei Zakharov

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