European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

On 20 February, Nuova Argo Finanziaria S.p.A. made a <a href="https://www.astm.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/NAF-2-102-Notice.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Voluntary Tender Offer</a> to acquire a 41.3% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21156:1" rel="noopener">ASTM SpA (AT IM)</a> for €1.7 bn with the aim of taking it private and delisting it.
<ul>
<li>Nuova Argo Finanziaria (NAF) said during the weekend it would offer €25.60 a share in cash.</li>
<li>The price represents a premium of 28.8% to the last trading session.</li>
<li>The offeror and related parties hold already a 51.061% stake in ASTM; and ASTM holds a 7.645% stake in treasury.</li>
<li>Post completion ASTM S.p.A will be delisted.</li>
<li>Shares in ASTM jumped 27.3% on Monday, and traded today between €25.44 and €25.68, with over €91 mn traded at the time of publishing this insight.</li>
</ul>
As of H1 2020, ASTM managed a motorway network of approximately 4,594 km, which included 1,423 km network in Italy, as well as 3,171 km located internationally. This represented 45.5% of 2019 revenue, and 92.9% of 2019 EBITDA.
The offer price is not particularly generous.
<ul>
<li>On a DCF basis (using Capital IQ consensus), TP is €26.60 per share, c. 3.9% above the offer price.</li>
</ul>
The deal seems opportunistic as the price offered is well below where the company was trading before the onset of the pandemic.
<ul>
<li>The offeror bets on a recovery of the Italian and Brazilian economies, with ASTM reaching a 16% revenue growth and 63% EPS growth for 2021E (vs. 2020E).</li>
<li>Considering the premium offered, it is highly likely to that the deal go through, in my view.</li>
<li>Shareholders can oppose the deal (90% minimum threshold to delist) and seem to be expecting a bump.</li>
<li>The shares are trading tight to terms, €25.64 vs an offer price of €25.6.</li>
</ul>
(This Insight is labelled bearish as ASTM is trading tight to terms).

On 20 February, Nuova Argo Finanziaria S.p.A. made a Voluntary Tender Offer to acquire a 41.3% stake in ASTM SpA (AT IM) for €1.7 bn with the aim of taking it private and delisting it.

Nuova Argo Finanziaria (NAF) said during the weekend it would offer €25.60 a share in cash.
The price represents a premium of 28.8% to the last trading session.
The offeror and related parties hold already a 51.061% stake in ASTM; and ASTM holds a 7.645% stake in treasury.
Post completion ASTM S.p.A will be delisted.
Shares in ASTM jumped 27.3% on Monday, and traded today between €25.44 and €25.68, with over €91 mn traded at the time of publishing this insight.

As of H1 2020, ASTM managed a motorway network of approximately 4,594 km, which included 1,423 km network in Italy, as well as 3,171 km located internationally. This represented 45.5% of 2019 revenue, and 92.9% of 2019 EBITDA.
The offer price is not particularly generous.

On a DCF basis (using Capital IQ consensus), TP is €26.60 per share, c. 3.9% above the offer price.

The deal seems opportunistic as the price offered is well below where the company was trading before the onset of the pandemic.

The offeror bets on a recovery of the Italian and Brazilian economies, with ASTM reaching a 16% revenue growth and 63% EPS growth for 2021E (vs. 2020E).
Considering the premium offered, it is highly likely to that the deal go through, in my view.
Shareholders can oppose the deal (90% minimum threshold to delist) and seem to be expecting a bump.
The shares are trading tight to terms, €25.64 vs an offer price of €25.6.

(This Insight is labelled bearish as ASTM is trading tight to terms).

ASTM SpA - Nuova Argo Finanziaria Takeout Offer, Trading Tight

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis, production grew by 2% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a rise of 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016. It grew 1.1% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in April 2016 compared to 1.6% y-o-y in March 2016.In terms of industry segments, electricity &amp; utilities increased 1.8% y-o-y in April 2016 after having recorded negative…

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis, production grew by 2% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a rise of 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016. It grew 1.1% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in April 2016 compared to 1.6% y-o-y in March 2016.In terms of industry segments, electricity &amp; utilities increased 1.8% y-o-y in April 2016 after having recorded negative…

Eurozone: Industrial Production Revives Across Most Sectors and Countries in April

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Italy

ASTM S.p.A. is an industrial holding company. The Company engages in the management of motorway networks under concession and in the engineering and construction of of infrastructure projects.

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ASTM SpA (AT IM)

ASTM SpA - Nuova Argo Finanziaria Takeout Offer, Trading Tight

DCF based TP €26.60, 3.9% above opportunistic offer, which banks on a recovery of Italy & Brazil. Highly likely that the deal go through....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Eurozone: Industrial Production Revives Across Most Sectors and Countries in April

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and...

Rajan Govil

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production...

Rajan Govil

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