European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).</li>
<li>The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.</li>
<li>An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.</li>
</ul>


I would value Porsche on 18.9x €5.3 billion 22eEBIT, i.e. €100bn; Ferrari, which has moderately higher EBIT margins (25% vs. 16%), trades on 31.2x EV/22e EBIT (Capital IQ consensus).
The current discount of VW prefs to ords is 23.2%. A Porsche IPO without major changes on VW share structure, would be positive for the preference shares. Long prefs/short ords.
An IPO of Porsche would be beneficial for the Porsche SE shares and the current discount to NAV should tighten even more, in my view. Long 1 PAH3 GR/short 0.5136 VOW GR.


Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for February 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for February 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - February 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for January 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for January 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - January 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/anton-oilfield-services-gp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/panda-green-energy-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Panda Green</a></li><li><a href='/entities/gcl-new-energy-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Gcl New Energy Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Tata Motors LtdAnton OilfieldChina South CityPanda GreenGcl New Energy Holdingsand more...

United Kingdom

Aston Martin is a British luxury automotive manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance sports cars, grand tourers, and SUVs. The company also offers related parts, servicing, restoration, and brand licensing activities. Aston Martin was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Gaydon, Warwickshire, England.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Aston Martin (AML LN)

PAR3/VOW3/Potential Porsche IPO

The valuation of Porsche OpCo could reach €100 billion, vs. a market capitalization of c. €109.4 billion of VW. This is a feasible range...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe HY Trade Book - February 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for February 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - January 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for January 2022 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2021 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 26 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)