ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, </li>
<li>The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. </li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 

Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Striking a Balance with Finance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. </li>
<li>Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.</li>
<li>Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Astra International booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. 
Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.
Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Indonesia's Mirror Image

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>.</li>
<li>The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.</li>
<li>Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.</li>
</ul>



Astra International has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being BYD.
The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.
Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Opportunity Knocks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International's</a> results are a testament to both the company's resilience in the face of declining commodity prices, with autos. motorcycles and finance take up the reins of driving growth.</li>
<li>Astra continues to introduce new EV models with a focus on hybrid variants, which have been selling well. It is increasingly investing in sustainable businesses including geothermal and nickel assets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> remains a well-managed core proxy for Indonesia's key growth drivers, with new investments aligning the company with the country's growth drivers. Valuations are attractive versus history.</li>
</ul>



Astra International's results are a testament to both the company's resilience in the face of declining commodity prices, with autos. motorcycles and finance take up the reins of driving growth.
Astra continues to introduce new EV models with a focus on hybrid variants, which have been selling well. It is increasingly investing in sustainable businesses including geothermal and nickel assets.

Astra International (ASII IJ) remains a well-managed core proxy for Indonesia's key growth drivers, with new investments aligning the company with the country's growth drivers. Valuations are attractive versus history.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Driving Towards Future Sustainability

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)