Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

Singapore Telecommunications / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

<ul>
<li>US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.</li>
<li>Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)</li>
</ul>


US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.
Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)


Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC is a Swedish-British multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, manufacture, and commercialization of prescription medicines. The company specializes in therapeutic areas including oncology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism, respiratory and immunology, rare diseases, and vaccines. AstraZeneca was founded in 1999 through the merger of Sweden's Astra AB and the UK's Zeneca Group PLC, and its headquarters are located in Cambridge, UK.

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AstraZeneca (AZN SS)

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

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