IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betta-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25883:1" rel="noopener">Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH)</a> is a biopharma company in China focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of innovative therapies. Betta’s drug pipeline consists of two marketed therapies, five late clinical-stage or NDA-stage candidates, and more than twenty early clinical- and preclinical-stage candidates that address critical therapeutic targets. </p><p>Betta listed its A Shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016 raising net proceeds of RMB657.35 million. In December 2020, Betta raised RMB995.4 million through a placing of 10.1 million A Shares. Betta is pre-marketing an H Share listing to raise $800 million, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Despite efforts at diversification, Betta is highly dependent on a single product, <em>icotinib</em>, which was launched in 2011. The recent commercial launch of <em>ensartinib</em> will provide revenue diversification and a new growth engine. However, <em>icotinib</em> continues to face challenges and it will take some time for <em>ensartinib</em> to post meaningful market share gains (post-NRDL inclusion at the end of 2021). In combination with the weak underlying margin and cash generation, we are inclined to give this listing a pass.  </p></div>

Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558 CH) is a biopharma company in China focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of innovative therapies. Betta’s drug pipeline consists of two marketed therapies, five late clinical-stage or NDA-stage candidates, and more than twenty early clinical- and preclinical-stage candidates that address critical therapeutic targets. Betta listed its A Shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016 raising net proceeds of RMB657.35 million. In December 2020, Betta raised RMB995.4 million through a placing of 10.1 million A Shares. Betta is pre-marketing an H Share listing to raise $800 million, according to press reports. Despite efforts at diversification, Betta is highly dependent on a single product, icotinib, which was launched in 2011. The recent commercial launch of ensartinib will provide revenue diversification and a new growth engine. However, icotinib continues to face challenges and it will take some time for ensartinib to post meaningful market share gains (post-NRDL inclusion at the end of 2021). In combination with the weak underlying margin and cash generation, we are inclined to give this listing a pass.  

Betta Pharmaceuticals IPO Initiation: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Due to the worsening COVID-19 conditions in Thailand, investors may sell off Airport of Thailand's share in the coming months although the long-term prospect remains solid; global inoculation is on the way and governments around the world keep tinkering with the travel bubble that helps to provide more ideas on how to restart travel, mainly in safe entry and quarantine protocols. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Therefore, investors should take advantage of the potential sell-off in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> to add and should benefit later when travel recovers. Third Wave is a Charm.</strong></p>
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Due to the worsening COVID-19 conditions in Thailand, investors may sell off Airport of Thailand's share in the coming months although the long-term prospect remains solid; global inoculation is on the way and governments around the world keep tinkering with the travel bubble that helps to provide more ideas on how to restart travel, mainly in safe entry and quarantine protocols. 

Therefore, investors should take advantage of the potential sell-off in Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) to add and should benefit later when travel recovers. Third Wave is a Charm.


Airport of Thailand (AOT): 3rd Wave Is a Charm

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div>
<p>A group of shareholders plans to raise around US$200m via selling a 4.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-mab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28384:1" rel="noopener">I-Mab (IMAB US).</a></p>
<p>We have previously covered the IPO in:</p>
</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-mab-pre-ipo-strong-management-and-investor-backing-with-differentiated-products" target="_blank" rel="noopener">I-Mab (天境生物) Pre-IPO: Strong management and investor backing with differentiated products</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-mab-ipo-everest-deal-a-valuation-booster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">I-Mab (天境生物) IPO: Everest Deal a Valuation Booster</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/i-mab-ipo-trading-tiny-float-and-undemanding-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">I-Mab (天境生物) IPO Trading: Tiny Float and Undemanding Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this insight, we will talk about updates since then and run the deal through our ECM framework.</p></div>


A group of shareholders plans to raise around US$200m via selling a 4.6% stake in I-Mab (IMAB US).
We have previously covered the IPO in:

I-Mab (天境生物) Pre-IPO: Strong management and investor backing with differentiated products
I-Mab (天境生物) IPO: Everest Deal a Valuation Booster
I-Mab (天境生物) IPO Trading: Tiny Float and Undemanding Valuation
In this insight, we will talk about updates since then and run the deal through our ECM framework.

I-Mab Placement - Heading in the Right Direction

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<p>After Hong Kong's government planned to impose a 14-day quarantine and seven-day medical surveillance on all aircrew, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0125/2021012500513.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would have a "<em>significant impact on our ability to service our passenger and cargo markets</em>" and would add <em>"a further increase in our cash burn of approximately HK$300-$400 million per month</em>".</p>
<p>In effect, the uptick in cost from these new quarantine measures negates the cost savings from the cessation of Cathay Dragon announced last October.</p>
<p>Cathay has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0128/2021012800096.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the issuance of a HK$6.74bn 2.75% convertible bond due 2026.</p>
<p>The conversion price is HK$8.57/share, a 30% premium to the last close of HK$6.59/share. Assuming full conversion, these shares represent 10.89% of shares out on a fully diluted basis.</p>
<p>Upon conversion, together with the exercise of warrants held by the Hong Kong government, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>'s effective stakes would decline to 37.91% and 25.27% respectively from 45.00% and 29.99% currently. </p>
<p>Cathay's shares are up 25% in the past three months - before this latest fund-raising proposal - in line with a basket of peers of 28%. Year-on-year, Cathay is down 33%, bang in line with its peer basket.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Separately <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV has narrowed to 43% from a low of 55% last November.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


After Hong Kong's government planned to impose a 14-day quarantine and seven-day medical surveillance on all aircrew, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) announced it would have a "significant impact on our ability to service our passenger and cargo markets" and would add "a further increase in our cash burn of approximately HK$300-$400 million per month".
In effect, the uptick in cost from these new quarantine measures negates the cost savings from the cessation of Cathay Dragon announced last October.
Cathay has now announced the issuance of a HK$6.74bn 2.75% convertible bond due 2026.
The conversion price is HK$8.57/share, a 30% premium to the last close of HK$6.59/share. Assuming full conversion, these shares represent 10.89% of shares out on a fully diluted basis.
Upon conversion, together with the exercise of warrants held by the Hong Kong government, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) and Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)'s effective stakes would decline to 37.91% and 25.27% respectively from 45.00% and 29.99% currently. 
Cathay's shares are up 25% in the past three months - before this latest fund-raising proposal - in line with a basket of peers of 28%. Year-on-year, Cathay is down 33%, bang in line with its peer basket.


Separately Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s discount to NAV has narrowed to 43% from a low of 55% last November.


As always, more below the fold.


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Back To Terminal

<p>Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. </p>
<p>Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. </p>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/498/original/image_2762037721610626999059.png?1610626999" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182498"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
</div>

Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas, including gastrointestinal, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, central nervous system, pain control, anaesthesia, and infection.

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AstraZeneca (AZN SS)

Betta Pharmaceuticals IPO Initiation: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Betta is pre-marketing an H Share listing to raise $800 million, according to press reports. Overall, we think that Betta faces several challenges...

Arun George

Airport of Thailand (AOT): 3rd Wave Is a Charm

The sell off AOT soon due to worsening conditions in the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak.Investors should take advantage of the sell-off in...

Henry Soediarko

I-Mab Placement - Heading in the Right Direction

A group of shareholders plans to raise around US$200m via selling a 4.6% stake in I-Mab (IMAB US). We have previously covered the IPO as well.

Sumeet Singh

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Back To Terminal

Vaccine rollout and a hard turnaround in global tourism/air travel appear highly optimistic. I think Cathay has further to fall from here.

David Blennerhassett

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

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