Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd-94df40cf-c15e-462f-b3de-8d2d434ae935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36261:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab (9688 HK)</a> recorded Vyvgart revenue of $10M, $13M, and $23M in 4Q23, 1Q24, and 2Q24, respectively. The company raised 2024 Vyvgart revenue guidance to $80M from $70M earlier.</li>
<li>Despite strong momentum from Vyvgart, Zai Lab still has a lot of pain points. Decelerating revenue growth from Zejula is one of them.</li>
<li>Due to its in-licensing business model, Zai Lab has lower gross profit margin of 64–65%, compared with ~80% for a typical innovator biotech company.</li>
</ul>



Zai Lab (9688 HK) recorded Vyvgart revenue of $10M, $13M, and $23M in 4Q23, 1Q24, and 2Q24, respectively. The company raised 2024 Vyvgart revenue guidance to $80M from $70M earlier.
Despite strong momentum from Vyvgart, Zai Lab still has a lot of pain points. Decelerating revenue growth from Zejula is one of them.
Due to its in-licensing business model, Zai Lab has lower gross profit margin of 64–65%, compared with ~80% for a typical innovator biotech company.


Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clarity-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34095:1" rel="noopener">Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU)</a> received FDA fast track designation for its lead candidate 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA for PET imaging of prostate cancer lesions. Currently, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA is in phase 3 trial.</li>
<li>If approved, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA has the potential the best-in-class diagnostic as the product has improved lesion detection capability compared to existing prostate cancer diagnostics.</li>
<li>Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represents an attractive opportunity to grow a significant radiopharmaceutical franchise in oncology and other indications.</li>
</ul>



Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) received FDA fast track designation for its lead candidate 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA for PET imaging of prostate cancer lesions. Currently, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA is in phase 3 trial.
If approved, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA has the potential the best-in-class diagnostic as the product has improved lesion detection capability compared to existing prostate cancer diagnostics.
Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represents an attractive opportunity to grow a significant radiopharmaceutical franchise in oncology and other indications.


Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU): An Attractive Bet on Red Hot Radiopharmaceutical Field

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas: Gastrointestinal, Oncology, Cardiovascular, Respiratory, Central Nervous System, Pain Control, Anaesthesia, and Infection.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Astrazeneca Plc Spons Adr (AZN US)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

Zai Lab's Vyvgart revenue sees significant growth, but challenges remain with decelerating Zejula revenue and lower gross profit margins due to in...

Tina Banerjee

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU): An Attractive Bet on Red Hot Radiopharmaceutical Field

Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represent an attractive opportunity to grow a...

Tina Banerjee

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

​Zai Lab's Vyvgart revenue sees significant growth, but challenges remain with decelerating Zejula revenue and lower gross profit margins due to in...

Tina Banerjee

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU): An Attractive Bet on Red Hot Radiopharmaceutical Field

Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represent an attractive opportunity to grow a...

Tina Banerjee

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Zai Lab's Vyvgart revenue sees significant growth, but challenges remain with decelerating Zejula revenue and lower gross profit margins due to in...