European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM)</a> share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.</li>
<li>There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.</li>
<li>At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per Applus Services SA (APPS SM) share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.
There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.
At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.


Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Including the addition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>, there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
Including the addition of Porsche AG (P911 GR), there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. 
In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

<ul>
<li>Schema Alfa now holds 87.350% of Atlantia and has waived the 90% Threshold Condition. The offer will be reopened 21-25 November at same terms (settlement 2 December).</li>
<li>Schema Alfa has no obligation to acquire the shares of minority shareholders, moreover it could call an EGM to seek approval for a merger with Atlantia and delist Atlantia.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 0.09%. Accept offer, considering this was almost a knock-out bid with minimal interloper risk and the most likely scenario is delisting by the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


Schema Alfa now holds 87.350% of Atlantia and has waived the 90% Threshold Condition. The offer will be reopened 21-25 November at same terms (settlement 2 December).
Schema Alfa has no obligation to acquire the shares of minority shareholders, moreover it could call an EGM to seek approval for a merger with Atlantia and delist Atlantia.
Gross spread is 0.09%. Accept offer, considering this was almost a knock-out bid with minimal interloper risk and the most likely scenario is delisting by the end of the year.


<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I expect at least two STOXX Europe 600 constituents involved in M&amp;A deals to get deleted in November 2022. There could be more in December 2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a> is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and is leading the race to become an intra-review add in November 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
I expect at least two STOXX Europe 600 constituents involved in M&amp;A deals to get deleted in November 2022. There could be more in December 2022.

Porsche AG (P911 GR) is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and is leading the race to become an intra-review add in November 2022.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

<ul>
<li>Edizione/Blacktone have obtained clearances from Bank of Italy and Bank of Spain regarding their voluntary takeover offer for Atlantia. Once the Consob approves the prospectus the offer can be launched.</li>
<li>The offer period should start in October and should be completed after 40 working days, with settlement by the end of November, and delisting by the end of the year.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.13%, 7.06% annualised return assuming settlement by 30 November. Long ATL IM.</li>
</ul>


Edizione/Blacktone have obtained clearances from Bank of Italy and Bank of Spain regarding their voluntary takeover offer for Atlantia. Once the Consob approves the prospectus the offer can be launched.
The offer period should start in October and should be completed after 40 working days, with settlement by the end of November, and delisting by the end of the year.
Gross spread is 1.13%, 7.06% annualised return assuming settlement by 30 November. Long ATL IM.


Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

Italy

Atlantia SpA manages transport infrastructures. The Company provides electronic tolling systems, airport automation, and traffic information services. Atlantia manages toll road networks in Italy, Brazil, Chile, India and Poland as well as airports in Rome.

Atlantia SpA (ATL IM)

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: What Now?

On the basis of the provisional results, and considering the Sintonia shareholding, Schema Alfa will hold 721,323,714 shares, representing 87.350%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Between now and the end of the year, there could up to 14 constituent changes in the STOXX Europe 600 index including 5 intra review changes....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

The Benettons/Blackstone offer for Atlantia has obtained all clearances, and just pending prospectus authorization by the Consob, should be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

​Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Edizione & KKR/​​Atlantia: What Now?

On the basis of the provisional results, and considering the Sintonia shareholding, Schema Alfa will hold 721,323,714 shares, representing 87.350%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Between now and the end of the year, there could up to 14 constituent changes in the STOXX Europe 600 index including 5 intra review changes....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

The Benettons/Blackstone offer for Atlantia has obtained all clearances, and just pending prospectus authorization by the Consob, should be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: What Now?

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained