External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ATNI, a telecom company, has been overlooked due to industry setbacks</li><li>Company's businesses are healthy and poised for growth in revenue and EBITDA in 2025 and beyond</li><li>Expected free cash flow inflection point could lead to increased dividends, stock repurchases, and debt reduction, potentially doubling stock value in two years based on projected 2026 estimates</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

ATNI, a telecom company, has been overlooked due to industry setbacksCompany's businesses are healthy and poised for growth in revenue and EBITDA in 2025 and beyondExpected free cash flow inflection point could lead to increased dividends, stock repurchases, and debt reduction, potentially doubling stock value in two years based on projected 2026 estimatesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Atn International Inc (ATNI) - Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

<ul>
<li>ATNI reported disappointing Q3 results due to management turnover as the competitiveness of the geographies ATNI serves begins to intensify. </li>
<li>ATNI had previously guided the year with government programs ending during the year. To offset the revenue loss, ATNI was trying to add new subscribers, which proved challenging.    </li>
<li>The delay in adding new commercial broadband customers puts greater burden on ATNI moving to a free cash flow model than capital expenditure investment.</li>
</ul>


ATNI reported disappointing Q3 results due to management turnover as the competitiveness of the geographies ATNI serves begins to intensify. 
ATNI had previously guided the year with government programs ending during the year. To offset the revenue loss, ATNI was trying to add new subscribers, which proved challenging.    
The delay in adding new commercial broadband customers puts greater burden on ATNI moving to a free cash flow model than capital expenditure investment.


<ul>
<li>ATNI progressed in adding more high-speed broadband customers in the second quarter, helping to offset the revenue headwind from the expiration of ECF program.   </li>
<li>There were concerns when ATNI reported first quarter results that management was suggesting revenue would decline materially and that was not the case in the second quarter. </li>
<li>ATNI report revenue of $183.3 million in the quarter. The biggest driver for the quarter was more services revenue than we were anticipating. </li>
</ul>


ATNI progressed in adding more high-speed broadband customers in the second quarter, helping to offset the revenue headwind from the expiration of ECF program.   
There were concerns when ATNI reported first quarter results that management was suggesting revenue would decline materially and that was not the case in the second quarter. 
ATNI report revenue of $183.3 million in the quarter. The biggest driver for the quarter was more services revenue than we were anticipating. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There is huge size to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)</a> and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.</li>
<li>There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rb-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25475:1" rel="noopener">RB Global</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land</a> could see further positioning in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.
There is huge size to trade in KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.
There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including KKR &amp; Co, RB Global and Texas Pacific Land could see further positioning in the next week.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

<ul>
<li>ATNI is trading at approximately 35 percent discount to tangible book value after reporting first quarter results with negative free cash flow and reducing adjusted EBITDA guidance by 4.4 percent.</li>
<li>ATNI experienced delays in securing government contracts in the quarter and slower process in growing commercial broadband accounts.</li>
<li>ATNI is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $190 million to $200 million leading to calculation of positive free cash flow. </li>
</ul>


ATNI is trading at approximately 35 percent discount to tangible book value after reporting first quarter results with negative free cash flow and reducing adjusted EBITDA guidance by 4.4 percent.
ATNI experienced delays in securing government contracts in the quarter and slower process in growing commercial broadband accounts.
ATNI is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $190 million to $200 million leading to calculation of positive free cash flow. 


United States

ATN International, Inc. provides telecommunications services to rural, niche, and other under-served markets and geographies.  The Company, through subsidiaries, provides both wireless and wireline connectivity to residential and business customers. ATN International also provides a range of mobile wireless solutions, local exchange services and broadband internet services.

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ATN International (ATNI US)

Atn International Inc (ATNI) - Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024

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ATNI did not achieve positive free cash flow in Q1 and reduced full year adjusted EBITDA by approximately 4.4 percent. The underperformance has...

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