Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%</li>
<li>C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;</li>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.</li>
</ul>


Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%
C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;
We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK: Multiple reports show that Xiaomi‘s new car reservations very popular, but is it effective to skip professional test drives and directly market to the car buyers?（/）</li>
<li>ATAT: Atour tests a 50% discount promotion on Sunday, bodes well for occupancy rates and revenue.(+)</li>
<li>LI/1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK:The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data flows, which may clear the way for Tesla FSD to enter China（////-/-//）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK: Multiple reports show that Xiaomi‘s new car reservations very popular, but is it effective to skip professional test drives and directly market to the car buyers?（/）
ATAT: Atour tests a 50% discount promotion on Sunday, bodes well for occupancy rates and revenue.(+)
LI/1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK:The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data flows, which may clear the way for Tesla FSD to enter China（////-/-//）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ATAT/LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK

<ul>
<li>300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）</li>
<li>LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)</li>
</ul>


300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)
Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）
LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm</li>
<li>Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid</li>
<li>Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124</li>
</ul>


Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm
Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid
Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week</li>
<li>Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth</li>
<li>We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week
Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth
We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS


Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

Atour exceeded revenue expectations in C4Q23 and projects strong growth in 2024, despite a decline in operating margin. Analysts maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ATAT/LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK

Li lowered the first quarter and full-year delivery targets.The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

In January 2024 Chinese travel demand continued to recover, and initial indications are that demand related to the long LNY holiday was also strong.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Trip.com reported another strong set of quarterly results last week that featured strong top-line growth and admirable expense control. We suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

​Atour exceeded revenue expectations in C4Q23 and projects strong growth in 2024, despite a decline in operating margin. Analysts maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ATAT/LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK

Li lowered the first quarter and full-year delivery targets.The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

​New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

In January 2024 Chinese travel demand continued to recover, and initial indications are that demand related to the long LNY holiday was also strong.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Trip.com reported another strong set of quarterly results last week that featured strong top-line growth and admirable expense control. We suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Atour exceeded revenue expectations in C4Q23 and projects strong growth in 2024, despite a decline in operating margin. Analysts maintain a BUY...

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...