Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)</li>
<li>BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)
BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)
ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compare Trip.com's Revenue, Operating Income, &amp; Net Income to the Chinese airlines</li>
<li>Trip.com has done a better job of converting revenue growth to improved profitability</li>
<li>Trip.com YTD execution impressive, but we see no near-term upside in share price</li>
</ul>


We compare Trip.com's Revenue, Operating Income, &amp; Net Income to the Chinese airlines
Trip.com has done a better job of converting revenue growth to improved profitability
Trip.com YTD execution impressive, but we see no near-term upside in share price


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Trip.com YTD 2024 Performance Vs. Three Leading Chinese Airlines

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.</li>
<li>Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.</li>
<li>We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.</li>
</ul>


Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.
Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.
We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

<ul>
<li>Based on Atour (ATAT)'s strong pillow sales in 11.11, we raised C4Q24/2025 revenue estimate by 6.9%/7.1%. Our number is now 7.9%/15% higher than consensus;</li>
<li>The outstanding performance of the retail business may draw more consumer attention to the brand, thus bring contribute to Atour's hotel expansion.</li>
<li>We raise the TP by US$1 to US$37/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Based on Atour (ATAT)'s strong pillow sales in 11.11, we raised C4Q24/2025 revenue estimate by 6.9%/7.1%. Our number is now 7.9%/15% higher than consensus;
The outstanding performance of the retail business may draw more consumer attention to the brand, thus bring contribute to Atour's hotel expansion.
We raise the TP by US$1 to US$37/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)</li>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）</li>
<li>ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Government cut property transaction related taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% of transaction costs per unit(+)
1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: EV deliveries in the 45th week of 2024, Xiaomi rebounds, Tesla is strong, NIO and Xpeng are weak （///////////）
ATAT US: Atour Pillow's Double 11 Sales Exceed Expectations, Reaching RMB520mn（+）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Trip.com YTD 2024 Performance Vs. Three Leading Chinese Airlines

We compare Trip.com's and the three leading Chinese airlines' YTD financial performance. Trip.com has done a better job vs the airlines of...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential

Atour's strong pillow sales on 11.11 lead to increased revenue estimates and potential for hotel expansion, prompting a raise in target price and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

​Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Trip.com YTD 2024 Performance Vs. Three Leading Chinese Airlines

We compare Trip.com's and the three leading Chinese airlines' YTD financial performance. Trip.com has done a better job vs the airlines of...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

​Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]: Strong 11.11 Sales Recalibrate E-Commerce Potential

​Atour's strong pillow sales on 11.11 lead to increased revenue estimates and potential for hotel expansion, prompting a raise in target price and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/ATAT US/BIDU US

​Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Atour's strong pillow sales on 11.11 lead to increased revenue estimates and potential for hotel expansion, prompting a raise in target price and...

Government in BEKE US cuts property transaction taxes, saving 2.5%-4.5% per unit; EV deliveries mixed in 45th week, Atour Pillow's Double 11 sales...