Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> 's shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.</li>
<li>The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD &amp; CEO to two years baffled the market. </li>
<li>Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.</li>
</ul>



Indusind Bank (IIB IN) 's shares saw a sharp fall of 7% on Monday.
The fact that RBI shortened the tenure of MD &amp; CEO to two years baffled the market. 
Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been seen earlier also for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency, hence investors should not be too worried.


IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Operating environment &amp; outlook, Business performance, Collection &amp; Credit Awareness, Asset Quality &amp; Restructuring, Liability franchise &amp; deposits, Digital banking, Future business drivers &amp; new launches</p>
</div>
<p>Companies covered in this Insight include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-small-finance-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24196:1" rel="noopener">AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ujjivan-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28443:1" rel="noopener">Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equitas-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28834:1" rel="noopener">Equitas Small Finance Bank (ESFB IN)</a></p>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. 


For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Operating environment &amp; outlook, Business performance, Collection &amp; Credit Awareness, Asset Quality &amp; Restructuring, Liability franchise &amp; deposits, Digital banking, Future business drivers &amp; new launches

Companies covered in this Insight include AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) / Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN) / Equitas Small Finance Bank (ESFB IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Small Finance Banks - AUBANK, USFB, ESFB

India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

<p>In quite an innovative move, the Government of India amended the Insolvency and Bankruptcy code (IBC) 2016, by promulgating an ordinance to provide pre-packaged resolution for micro, small and medium Enterprises (MSME’s). The move is expected to create a win-win situation for the MSME debtor and creditor alike. Banks with sizeable exposure to the MSME segment and/or  higher stress in the segment stand to benefit the most , from this amendment. </p>

In quite an innovative move, the Government of India amended the Insolvency and Bankruptcy code (IBC) 2016, by promulgating an ordinance to provide pre-packaged resolution for micro, small and medium Enterprises (MSME’s). The move is expected to create a win-win situation for the MSME debtor and creditor alike. Banks with sizeable exposure to the MSME segment and/or  higher stress in the segment stand to benefit the most , from this amendment. 

The ‘Pre-Pack’ Scheme for MSME: Which Banks Have the Most Stressed MSME Portfolio ?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There are 22 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index and 1 change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 29 June.
The round-trip trade across both indices is estimated at just over US$2bn and there are 18 stocks that have over 1x ADV to trade from passives.
A number of the inclusions will have inflows from global and local passive trackers over the next few months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

India

AU Small Finance Bank Limited is an Indian scheduled commercial small finance bank. It offers a diverse range of products including savings accounts, current accounts, fixed deposits, loans (vehicle, MSME, housing, personal, gold, agriculture), debit and credit cards, and insurance. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India.

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AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK IN)

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

IndusInd Bank- RBI's Decision May Not Be a Red Flag

Shortening of tenures by the RBI have been common for BFSIs. The move does not explicitly indicate any fundamental deficiency which is why...

Nitin Mangal

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Small Finance Banks - AUBANK, USFB, ESFB

Companies covered in this Insight include AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) / Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (USFB IN) / Equitas Small Finance...

Pranav Bhavsar

The ‘Pre-Pack’ Scheme for MSME: Which Banks Have the Most Stressed MSME Portfolio ?

The Government has amended the IBC code 2016 to provide pre-packaged resolution for MSME's. Banks with sizeable exposure to MSME and /or the...

Saumya Agarwal

NIFTY200 Momentum30 / Nifty100 LowVol30 Index Rebalance: Over US$2bn to Trade in June

The deletes have outperformed the adds by 4.7% since the announcement of the changes. The passives trade at the close today and those flows could...

Brian Freitas

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