Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Chilean peso (CLP) against the Australian dollar (AUD) in a beta-neutral ratio. The Chilean peso has outperformed its EM peers but has lagged the rally in copper. Instead of funding CLP in dollars, we prefer the Australian dollar to partly hedge the commodity risk as both Chile and Australia are major metal exporters.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend going long the Chilean peso (CLP) against the Australian dollar (AUD) in a beta-neutral ratio. The Chilean peso has outperformed its EM peers but has lagged the rally in copper. Instead of funding CLP in dollars, we prefer the Australian dollar to partly hedge the commodity risk as both Chile and Australia are major metal exporters.

Alpha Bites: Long Chilean Peso Vs Short Australian Dollar

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Two weeks ago in a note titled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/commodity-currencies-and-their-warnings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49691" rel="noopener">Commodity Currencies and Their Warnings</a> we examined their short term setups and potential declines (mainly against the USD)This was largely on the back of a slip in the Oil price and long term levels being tested on major commodity indices. A lot of the indications in that note are still valid.Since then, we see fresh indications that yields will likely slip too which brings some JPY crosses into focus. While there have not been any breaks as yet, key levels on AUDJPY and CADJPY should be watched closely.

Two weeks ago in a note titled Commodity Currencies and Their Warnings we examined their short term setups and potential declines (mainly against the USD)This was largely on the back of a slip in the Oil price and long term levels being tested on major commodity indices. A lot of the indications in that note are still valid.Since then, we see fresh indications that yields will likely slip too which brings some JPY crosses into focus. While there have not been any breaks as yet, key levels on AUDJPY and CADJPY should be watched closely.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A new currency regime in Asia?</li>
<li>Wildly inaccurate media reports wrongly suggest large-scale capital outflows from EM</li>
<li>Rather EM enjoying best forex reserve growth for a decade</li>
<li>
De facto Asian Currency Unit, a ‘Euro-like’ policy, allowing monetization</li>
<li>Loose US fiscal and monetary policies are more likely to spill-over into EM</li>
</ul>


A new currency regime in Asia?
Wildly inaccurate media reports wrongly suggest large-scale capital outflows from EM
Rather EM enjoying best forex reserve growth for a decade

De facto Asian Currency Unit, a ‘Euro-like’ policy, allowing monetization
Loose US fiscal and monetary policies are more likely to spill-over into EM


Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

With many EM central banks embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the currency...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if the US dollar becomes rangebound going forward, taking away the impetus for...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Long Chilean Peso Vs Short Australian Dollar

We recommend going long the Chilean peso (CLP) against the Australian dollar (AUD) in a beta-neutral ratio. The Chilean peso has outperformed its...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Commodity Currencies and the JPY

The three charts of US 10Y yield with USDJPY, AUDJPY and CADJPY are all giving early warning signs that lower levels could be seen. Watch these levels

Shyam Devani

Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

Asian cross-currency volatility is at its all-time low. A de facto Euro-like unit is forming. This could be hugely bullish for Emerging Markets

Michael J. Howell

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