Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/u-s-dollar-index-usdx" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26018:1">US Dollar Index (DXY) (DXY CURNCY)</a>  – Clearing 99.40 is now testing the key 99.80 level. We remain USD bullish (long from early Jan) on pullbacks as the current rise is very extended. Risk lies with an acceleration to the 100.40 macro barrier, once above 99.80 on the back risk aversion seeking safety in the USD. We have been long the USD from early January and expect any rally stall to be follow by strength well into March.</p><div>Euro remains bearish (short from 1.12) and would represent a key break below 1.08 on the weekly support pivot. Sterling remains weak from the 1.3050 resistance to press toward 1.28/27.</div><div>
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<div>USD in Asia is showing accelerating upside energy where we are long the greenback outside of IDR and PHP.  USD/SGD just cleared key 1.39 resistance (opens the way to 1.4250). Touted turning long the USD/KRW as a follow play with MYR, THB, INR front run USD long positions that have shown explosive upside momentum momentum.</div>
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<div>Strategy/pivot points – DXY above 99.80 would open the way higher. Euro below 1.08 would break weekly pivot support. USD acceleration in Asia. AUD next big inflection level at 0.6680. USD bullish into March.</div>
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US Dollar Index (DXY) (DXY CURNCY)  – Clearing 99.40 is now testing the key 99.80 level. We remain USD bullish (long from early Jan) on pullbacks as the current rise is very extended. Risk lies with an acceleration to the 100.40 macro barrier, once above 99.80 on the back risk aversion seeking safety in the USD. We have been long the USD from early January and expect any rally stall to be follow by strength well into March.Euro remains bearish (short from 1.12) and would represent a key break below 1.08 on the weekly support pivot. Sterling remains weak from the 1.3050 resistance to press toward 1.28/27.

USD in Asia is showing accelerating upside energy where we are long the greenback outside of IDR and PHP.  USD/SGD just cleared key 1.39 resistance (opens the way to 1.4250). Touted turning long the USD/KRW as a follow play with MYR, THB, INR front run USD long positions that have shown explosive upside momentum momentum.

Strategy/pivot points – DXY above 99.80 would open the way higher. Euro below 1.08 would break weekly pivot support. USD acceleration in Asia. AUD next big inflection level at 0.6680. USD bullish into March.


Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<p>This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/top-short-triggers-in-asia-for-a-q1-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35987">Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback</a> on January 21 as we moved into a late January cycle peak and harder downturn call/cycle. Risk triggers and shorts were outlined in China, HSI, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and SPX for a harder February down cycle. China's bearish MACD triangulation was at the forefront of this bear scenario.</p><p>AUD/JPY, NDX, SPX, India, EWY (Korea ETF) and Europe are spaces that show better risk to reward for shorts today assuming we get a mild uptick and head south again.</p><p>USD/JPY may not hold up much long and vulnerable below that big wedge support breach level at 109.70 with 106.80 eyed.</p><p>US 10yr yields are also breaking critical support.</p>

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback on January 21 as we moved into a late January cycle peak and harder downturn call/cycle. Risk triggers and shorts were outlined in China, HSI, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and SPX for a harder February down cycle. China's bearish MACD triangulation was at the forefront of this bear scenario.AUD/JPY, NDX, SPX, India, EWY (Korea ETF) and Europe are spaces that show better risk to reward for shorts today assuming we get a mild uptick and head south again.USD/JPY may not hold up much long and vulnerable below that big wedge support breach level at 109.70 with 106.80 eyed.US 10yr yields are also breaking critical support.

<p>USD/KRW gunning to test 1,153 triple lows. USD/SGD met 1.3450 for a wave 5 low and USD long with risk of a re test. AUD and INR favored USD macro bull plays. USD shorts focused in PHP (bear wedge), IDR (macro triangulation key break down from major support). USD/MYR and USD/TWD working into USD long territory.</p><p>USD/JPY's rising wedge break support and re test of resistance axis is a key inflection for risk in Asia and the globe.</p><p>DXY upturn off of lower wedge support with bigger price support near 96.00. MACD triple base low places a fairly good floor for now (USD base support) and a must hold level. MACD break of macro support would usher in a more bearish USD cycle and will act as a key inflection point. DXY price wedge favors the upside as long as 96 support is maintained.</p>

USD/KRW gunning to test 1,153 triple lows. USD/SGD met 1.3450 for a wave 5 low and USD long with risk of a re test. AUD and INR favored USD macro bull plays. USD shorts focused in PHP (bear wedge), IDR (macro triangulation key break down from major support). USD/MYR and USD/TWD working into USD long territory.USD/JPY's rising wedge break support and re test of resistance axis is a key inflection for risk in Asia and the globe.DXY upturn off of lower wedge support with bigger price support near 96.00. MACD triple base low places a fairly good floor for now (USD base support) and a must hold level. MACD break of macro support would usher in a more bearish USD cycle and will act as a key inflection point. DXY price wedge favors the upside as long as 96 support is maintained.

USD Moving into a Cycle Low in Asia Aligning with an Equity Rally Stall

<p>Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher conviction patterns that would tilt to a risk off sequence (equity pullback). We have touted putting on short protection in weaker equity sectors/stocks. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpy" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1">JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) , A</a>UD/JPY, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/w-t-offshore-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12370:1">W&amp;T Offshore (WTI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY), T</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-treasury" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22878:1">reasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT)</a> are all aligning for a mild to mid degree tactical pullback in equities within a higher degree macro bull cycle.</p><p>These wedge patterns exhibit a minimum 70% probability of breaking to the downside (gold to the upside) and in the case of the USD/JPY odds increase on the back of bear divergence we have outlined in recent weeks near the 109.50 barrier. 107.50 is the pivot level to test and break, holding would see a final push to the 110 topside barrier.</p>

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher conviction patterns that would tilt to a risk off sequence (equity pullback). We have touted putting on short protection in weaker equity sectors/stocks. The JPY (USDJPY CURNCY) , AUD/JPY, W&amp;T Offshore (WTI US) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY), Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (T GOVT) are all aligning for a mild to mid degree tactical pullback in equities within a higher degree macro bull cycle.These wedge patterns exhibit a minimum 70% probability of breaking to the downside (gold to the upside) and in the case of the USD/JPY odds increase on the back of bear divergence we have outlined in recent weeks near the 109.50 barrier. 107.50 is the pivot level to test and break, holding would see a final push to the 110 topside barrier.

Risk Triggers that Would Lead an Equity Pullback

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows.  Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last year, the Royal Commission into the financial sector unsettled confidence, the housing market downturn accelerated, political uncertainty peaked into the national election in May, and the RBA scurried to cut rates twice at back-to-back monthly meetings in June and July.  Now the regulatory, political and economic trends are moving in favour of the AUD and against NZD.  RBNZ is toughing capital requirements on NZ banks. The Australian housing market is stabilising, NZ’s is slowing.  The Australian political cycle is as positive as it has been for a decade, and tax cuts have been delivered.  Australian trade performance is much stronger, and its fiscal position has caught up to and over-taken NZ’s.  NZ is expected to cut rates in August and is largely pacing Australian rates lower. </em></p>

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows.  Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last year, the Royal Commission into the financial sector unsettled confidence, the housing market downturn accelerated, political uncertainty peaked into the national election in May, and the RBA scurried to cut rates twice at back-to-back monthly meetings in June and July.  Now the regulatory, political and economic trends are moving in favour of the AUD and against NZD.  RBNZ is toughing capital requirements on NZ banks. The Australian housing market is stabilising, NZ’s is slowing.  The Australian political cycle is as positive as it has been for a decade, and tax cuts have been delivered.  Australian trade performance is much stronger, and its fiscal position has caught up to and over-taken NZ’s.  NZ is expected to cut rates in August and is largely pacing Australian rates lower. 

Big Issues Holding Down AUD/NZD Have Flipped

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Dollar Momentum and Big Break Points

US Dollar Index (DXY) (DXY CURNCY) – Clearing 99.40 is now testing the key 99.80 level. We remain USD bullish (long from early Jan) on pullbacks...

Thomas Schroeder

Where One Can Add to Shorts Today

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Moving into a Cycle Low in Asia Aligning with an Equity Rally Stall

USD/KRW gunning to test 1,153 triple lows. USD/SGD met 1.3450 for a wave 5 low and USD long with risk of a re test. AUD and INR favored USD macro...

Thomas Schroeder

Risk Triggers that Would Lead an Equity Pullback

Equity markets are clearly overbought tactically with a more bullish macro underpin going into Q1 2020. Here we take a look at some higher...

Thomas Schroeder

Big Issues Holding Down AUD/NZD Have Flipped

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows. Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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