FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

RBA governor Lowe is a month into his new job and has already signed off a new policy targets agreement, fronted parliament, chaired his first policy meeting, released a financial stability report and given his first public speech with Q&amp;A.  He has emphasized a flexible approach to policy suggesting he is willing to live with below-target inflation for some time. He has revealed a discomfort with cutting rates further, seeing a diminishing net benefit, and called on the government to consider facilitating more infrastructure spending.  A bias to cut remains with slack in the labour market and mixed housing market conditions, but there is early evidence that the drag from the mining investment downturn is abating and commodity prices have rebounded sharply this year boosted by stronger demand from China and cuts in its production of commodities.  Lowe is reluctant to leave unchecked a further decline in inflation, and may respond to a significant downside surprise to Q3 inflation next week, but on balance, rates appear on hold for the foreseeable future.  Some downside risk for rates remains with an apartment supply overhang fast approaching and worsening financial stability risks in China.  The AUD should continue to benefit from stable rates and stronger commodity prices in the near term.

RBA governor Lowe is a month into his new job and has already signed off a new policy targets agreement, fronted parliament, chaired his first policy meeting, released a financial stability report and given his first public speech with Q&amp;A.  He has emphasized a flexible approach to policy suggesting he is willing to live with below-target inflation for some time. He has revealed a discomfort with cutting rates further, seeing a diminishing net benefit, and called on the government to consider facilitating more infrastructure spending.  A bias to cut remains with slack in the labour market and mixed housing market conditions, but there is early evidence that the drag from the mining investment downturn is abating and commodity prices have rebounded sharply this year boosted by stronger demand from China and cuts in its production of commodities.  Lowe is reluctant to leave unchecked a further decline in inflation, and may respond to a significant downside surprise to Q3 inflation next week, but on balance, rates appear on hold for the foreseeable future.  Some downside risk for rates remains with an apartment supply overhang fast approaching and worsening financial stability risks in China.  The AUD should continue to benefit from stable rates and stronger commodity prices in the near term. 

RBA Governor Lowe Sets a Steady Course, Prepares for Risks Ahead

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 16 October 2016USD gaining tractionTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/gljObldO" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/gljObldO&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1476749458636000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvKp2rZnbQlYCFpYmcy27QRBkkYw">http://www.screencast.com/t/gljObldO</a>10:31 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/014/762/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1476663175" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="14762"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>DXY 96.10 long targets micro projection at 98.32 with 98.50 the mid-range target. Pattern resistance is rising toward the 99+ area and with time would edge toward the macro 100 barrier. Fresh dip support lies at 97.10/19 with strong support coming in at 96.50 but given the impulsive nature of this rise pulling back to 96.50 is a real long shot. Focus…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 16 October 2016USD gaining tractionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/gljObldO10:31 min.FX webcastDXY 96.10 long targets micro projection at 98.32 with 98.50 the mid-range target. Pattern resistance is rising toward the 99+ area and with time would edge toward the macro 100 barrier. Fresh dip support lies at 97.10/19 with strong support coming in at 96.50 but given the impulsive nature of this rise pulling back to 96.50 is a real long shot. Focus…

USD Gaining Traction as Tier Two Currencies Take the Bait

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling over to several emerging markets through direct links to their currencies or via currency basket regimes.  Commodity currencies and some emerging market currencies that are less influenced by these weaker major currencies, with more stable political environments, have performed solidly against the USD. We may continue to see weakness in non-dollar major currencies, provided the US economy and rates outlook remains stable. And we may see more spillover to some EM currencies in coming weeks.  Both EUR and JPY appear to be developing more sustained weaker trends and they may have some way to unwind excess gains in the first half of the year as vicious cycles turn to virtuous ones (related to rising global bond yields).  In essence, their currencies may weaken in response to their negative interest rates, improving inflation expectations, and a sense that their easy monetary policies are succeeding in holding down real yields. This may tend to perpetuate the recent trend towards a weaker EUR and JPY and relatively strong, if not outright strength, in commodity currencies. However, higher global bond yields may also tend to undermine currencies that have relied on flows into their bond market from investors seeking higher yield in an, until recent weeks, diminishing global yield environment.

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling over to several emerging markets through direct links to their currencies or via currency basket regimes.  Commodity currencies and some emerging market currencies that are less influenced by these weaker major currencies, with more stable political environments, have performed solidly against the USD. We may continue to see weakness in non-dollar major currencies, provided the US economy and rates outlook remains stable. And we may see more spillover to some EM currencies in coming weeks.  Both EUR and JPY appear to be developing more sustained weaker trends and they may have some way to unwind excess gains in the first half of the year as vicious cycles turn to virtuous ones (related to rising global bond yields).  In essence, their currencies may weaken in response to their negative interest rates, improving inflation expectations, and a sense that their easy monetary policies are succeeding in holding down real yields. This may tend to perpetuate the recent trend towards a weaker EUR and JPY and relatively strong, if not outright strength, in commodity currencies. However, higher global bond yields may also tend to undermine currencies that have relied on flows into their bond market from investors seeking higher yield in an, until recent weeks, diminishing global yield environment. 

Weaker EUR & JPY, Stronger Commodity Currencies

Australian commodity prices continue to rise with further gains in coal and iron ore prices this week, despite news that the Chinese government is moving to contain credit growth and its housing market.  The medium-term outlook remains unclear, but taking commodity price moves at face value suggests the AUD should perform relatively well.  Rising global bond yields and a stronger USD (mainly reflecting weakness in JPY, GBP, and more recently the EUR) and mixed EM markets may tend to cap the AUD against the USD, but it likely to outperform other currencies.  AUD/NZD is approaching technical resistance, but still has further upside potential.

Australian commodity prices continue to rise with further gains in coal and iron ore prices this week, despite news that the Chinese government is moving to contain credit growth and its housing market.  The medium-term outlook remains unclear, but taking commodity price moves at face value suggests the AUD should perform relatively well.  Rising global bond yields and a stronger USD (mainly reflecting weakness in JPY, GBP, and more recently the EUR) and mixed EM markets may tend to cap the AUD against the USD, but it likely to outperform other currencies.  AUD/NZD is approaching technical resistance, but still has further upside potential.

Brexit fear is now close to being fully priced into the GBP, in our view.  The most recent slide in October tends to reflect the hard Brexit risk.  GBP is likely to remain weak for some time, but it may have seen its low in the flash crash last week.  Global bond yields continue their creep up despite dovish comments by the ECB and BoJ since Friday. We can see further rises in global yields unwinding from an extreme low that evolved on expectations of more QE, deeper negative rates, and extreme dis-inflationary expectation.  The market has been distracted from the evidence of modest improvement in the global economy and a rising trend in commodity prices this year by Brexit, banking sector woes in Europe and Japan and more bearish long-term forecasts by the Fed since mid-year. Fiscal impetus has turned positive and inflation expectations are now firming, supported by higher commodity prices.  As yields rise they will tend to reinforce an improvement in global economic confidence and unwind excessive pessimism on inflation.  Higher yields have negative implications for both ends of the risk spectrum, they will tend to weaken extreme low yielders (JPY, EUR, and gold) and also weaken the high yielders, like NZD.

Brexit fear is now close to being fully priced into the GBP, in our view.  The most recent slide in October tends to reflect the hard Brexit risk.  GBP is likely to remain weak for some time, but it may have seen its low in the flash crash last week.  Global bond yields continue their creep up despite dovish comments by the ECB and BoJ since Friday. We can see further rises in global yields unwinding from an extreme low that evolved on expectations of more QE, deeper negative rates, and extreme dis-inflationary expectation.  The market has been distracted from the evidence of modest improvement in the global economy and a rising trend in commodity prices this year by Brexit, banking sector woes in Europe and Japan and more bearish long-term forecasts by the Fed since mid-year. Fiscal impetus has turned positive and inflation expectations are now firming, supported by higher commodity prices.  As yields rise they will tend to reinforce an improvement in global economic confidence and unwind excessive pessimism on inflation.  Higher yields have negative implications for both ends of the risk spectrum, they will tend to weaken extreme low yielders (JPY, EUR, and gold) and also weaken the high yielders, like NZD.

Brexit Impact Over, Yields Rising, Currencies at Both Ends of Risk Spectrum Fall

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

RBA Governor Lowe Sets a Steady Course, Prepares for Risks Ahead

RBA governor Lowe is a month into his new job and has already signed off a new policy targets agreement, fronted parliament, chaired his first...

Greg Gibbs

USD Gaining Traction as Tier Two Currencies Take the Bait

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 16 October 2016USD gaining tractionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/gljObldO10:31 min.DXY 96.10...

Thomas Schroeder

Weaker EUR & JPY, Stronger Commodity Currencies

Looking over the map, recent USD gains are less about renewed strength in the US economy and more about weaker trends in JPY, GBP and EUR spilling...

Greg Gibbs

AUD Receiving Commodity Support

Australian commodity prices continue to rise with further gains in coal and iron ore prices this week, despite news that the Chinese government is...

Greg Gibbs

Brexit Impact Over, Yields Rising, Currencies at Both Ends of Risk Spectrum Fall

Brexit fear is now close to being fully priced into the GBP, in our view. The most recent slide in October tends to reflect the hard Brexit risk. ...

Greg Gibbs

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