Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Peter Warren Automotive Holdin / Equity Capital Markets

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Limited (PWA) aims to raise around US$200m in its Australia IPO. PWA is an automotive dealership group in Australia. It operates 17 dealerships across Sydney, Northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. The company offers 27 vehicle brands and operates 70 franchises. PWA represents 18 of the top 30 brands in Australia.PWA gets the bulk of its revenue from new car sales, and it managed to come out of COVID-19 with minimal impact to earnings. Revenue was down 3.34% in FY20 (period ending Jun 20) while NPAT was flat. It also registered a strong rebound in 1H21 with revenue increasing by 6.86% while NPAT was up 4.9x. On the flip side, PWA has a small market share in a highly fragmented market and its organic growth appears to be slow leaving it dependent on M&amp;A for future growth.  In addition, while the offering is being advertised as being a primary offering, most of the proceeds will go to the two controlling families, along with a chunky pre-IPO dividend. In terms of valuation, PWA has been priced at a discount to Eagers but ahead of Autosports. Looking at its past performance, the stock should trade at a discount to Eagers, and hence, in our view, it offers little upside from the IPO pricing.

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Limited (PWA) aims to raise around US$200m in its Australia IPO. PWA is an automotive dealership group in Australia. It operates 17 dealerships across Sydney, Northern New South Wales and Southern Queensland. The company offers 27 vehicle brands and operates 70 franchises. PWA represents 18 of the top 30 brands in Australia.PWA gets the bulk of its revenue from new car sales, and it managed to come out of COVID-19 with minimal impact to earnings. Revenue was down 3.34% in FY20 (period ending Jun 20) while NPAT was flat. It also registered a strong rebound in 1H21 with revenue increasing by 6.86% while NPAT was up 4.9x. On the flip side, PWA has a small market share in a highly fragmented market and its organic growth appears to be slow leaving it dependent on M&amp;A for future growth.  In addition, while the offering is being advertised as being a primary offering, most of the proceeds will go to the two controlling families, along with a chunky pre-IPO dividend. In terms of valuation, PWA has been priced at a discount to Eagers but ahead of Autosports. Looking at its past performance, the stock should trade at a discount to Eagers, and hence, in our view, it offers little upside from the IPO pricing.

Australia

Autosports Group Limited retails automobiles. The Company offers new and used cars, as well as provides parts, repair, insurance, and financing services. Autosports Group serves customers in Australia.

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Autosports (ASG AU)

Monday Delight: 07/07/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Peter Warren IPO - Delicately Poised

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Limited (PWA) aims to raise around US$200m in its Australia IPO. PWA is an automotive dealership group in Australia.

Sumeet Singh

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