Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>, while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd</a>.</li>
<li>The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.
There is a high probability of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN), while there is a lower probability of Info Edge India replacing Coal India Ltd.
The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals (APHS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge (INFOE)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil (IOCL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India (COAL)</a> in the NIFTY50.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.</li>
</ul>


Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see Apollo Hospitals (APHS) and Info Edge (INFOE) replacing Indian Oil (IOCL) and Coal India (COAL) in the NIFTY50.
The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.
The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

<p>RHP overviews and information about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN)</a>'s business is widely covered both on this platform as well as across the internet (Twitter/Youtube). </p>
<p>This Insight assumes that Nykaa's broader business and IPO specific details are well known and hence focus is on earning power of the business, forecasts and valuations. </p>
<p>The inspiration for this insight is Naval's legendary thread - <em>How to Get Rich (without getting lucky)</em></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/928/original/image_31811942261635356542811.png?1635356545" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237928"></figure>

RHP overviews and information about FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (1003622D IN)'s business is widely covered both on this platform as well as across the internet (Twitter/Youtube). 
This Insight assumes that Nykaa's broader business and IPO specific details are well known and hence focus is on earning power of the business, forecasts and valuations. 
The inspiration for this insight is Naval's legendary thread - How to Get Rich (without getting lucky)


Nykaa IPO | Can It Make You Rich? (Without Getting Lucky)

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<p>In this insight, we analyze <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)</a> 's IPO by valuing its two distinctly different businesses - Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion - separately, based on two sets of peer valuation. We also share our GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)</a> based on a bottom-up analysis using key operational metrics of Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion retail. We also ran a rationality check on our projections by comparing them with top-down analysis. See detailed tables in the report below.</p><p>A key challenge that investors face in valuing Nykaa is the lack of listed comparable peers. We note that Nykaa's established BPC business is comparable to any high growth-high margin branded consumer, retail play in India given a similar operating structure. However, its emerging fashion retail is run as a marketplace with much stronger growth potential but at lower margins. Hence online consumer marketplace operators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> could be a better fit for its peer comparison.</p><p>For background read on the company's key strengths, concerns, and competitive landscape, please refer to our earlier insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fsn-ecommerce-nykaa-ipo-glowing-beauty-growing-fashion-a-primer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55547" rel="noopener">FSN ECommerce (Nykaa) IPO: Glowing Beauty, Growing Fashion. A Primer.</a></p>

In this insight, we analyze FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) 's IPO by valuing its two distinctly different businesses - Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion - separately, based on two sets of peer valuation. We also share our GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) projections for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) based on a bottom-up analysis using key operational metrics of Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion retail. We also ran a rationality check on our projections by comparing them with top-down analysis. See detailed tables in the report below.A key challenge that investors face in valuing Nykaa is the lack of listed comparable peers. We note that Nykaa's established BPC business is comparable to any high growth-high margin branded consumer, retail play in India given a similar operating structure. However, its emerging fashion retail is run as a marketplace with much stronger growth potential but at lower margins. Hence online consumer marketplace operators like Zomato (ZOMATO IN) could be a better fit for its peer comparison.For background read on the company's key strengths, concerns, and competitive landscape, please refer to our earlier insight FSN ECommerce (Nykaa) IPO: Glowing Beauty, Growing Fashion. A Primer.

FSN Ecommerce IPO Valuation: Nykaa Can Be Appetizing if You Liked Zomato

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a>  aims to raise US$1.3bn in its India IPO. This will be the largest listing in India from the technology sector.</p></div><div><p>Zomato operates a technology platform that provides services for restaurant partners, customers, and delivery partners. During FY20, Zomato recorded 41.5m average MAU and was one of the leading Food Services platforms in India, in terms of value of goods sold, according to RedSeer. As of 31 Dec 20, it had a presence in 526 Indian cities and had 350,174 active restaurant listings.</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier notes  </p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-filings-lack-narrative-a-little-bit-of-history-helps" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps, </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-food-delivery-revenue-was-probably-up-16x" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-listed-and-domestic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Listed and Domestic</a></li>
</ul>
</div><p>In this note, we will talk about the updates from the RHP and the deal pricing.</p>

Zomato (ZOM IN)  aims to raise US$1.3bn in its India IPO. This will be the largest listing in India from the technology sector.Zomato operates a technology platform that provides services for restaurant partners, customers, and delivery partners. During FY20, Zomato recorded 41.5m average MAU and was one of the leading Food Services platforms in India, in terms of value of goods sold, according to RedSeer. As of 31 Dec 20, it had a presence in 526 Indian cities and had 350,174 active restaurant listings.
We have covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier notes  

Zomato Pre-IPO - Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps, 
Zomato Pre-IPO - Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x, and
Zomato Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Listed and Domestic

In this note, we will talk about the updates from the RHP and the deal pricing.

Zomato IPO - Strong 4Q21, Has a Very Long Runway

India

Avenue Supermarts Limited, operating as D-Mart, is an Indian retail corporation that runs a chain of hypermarkets and supermarkets. The company offers a wide range of basic home and personal products, including food, groceries, toiletries, beauty products, garments, kitchenware, and home appliances. Avenue Supermarts was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.

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Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

There is a high probability of Apollo Hosp replacing Indian Oil in the NIFTY Index at the March rebalance. There is a lower probability of Info...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

High probability changes are inclusion of Apollo Hospitals & deletion of IOCL, while there is a lower probability of Info Edge being added & COAL...

Brian Freitas

Nykaa IPO | Can It Make You Rich? (Without Getting Lucky)

Inspired by Naval's legendary thread, this Insight is an attempt to use his analogy to provide a different perspective on Nykaa 's IPO along with...

Pranav Bhavsar

FSN Ecommerce IPO Valuation: Nykaa Can Be Appetizing if You Liked Zomato

Segment-wise valuation analysis based on separate peer set to better reflect the distinct operating structures and margin/growth profiles of...

Devi Subhakesan

Zomato IPO - Strong 4Q21, Has a Very Long Runway

Zomato (ZOM IN) aims to raise US$1.3bn in its India IPO. This will be the largest listing in India from the technology sector.

Sumeet Singh

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