Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Capital Markets

Avianca Holdings Sa / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.</li>
<li>The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.</li>
<li>We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.</li>
</ul>


Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.
The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.
We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.


Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

<p>Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).<br/> We assess Avianca's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its "Adequate" Environmental and Governance scores. However, the company's Social pillar is "Weak". Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Adequate".<br/></p>

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Avianca's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its "Adequate" Environmental and Governance scores. However, the company's Social pillar is "Weak". Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Adequate". 

Equity Bottom-Up

Latam Airlines Group SA / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LATAM Group surprised the market with strong guidance for 2024 earnings growth following upgrades through 2023. We raise our 2024 EBITDAR 14% to $2.8bn.</li>
<li>A successful restructuring under Chapter 11, and market leadership in key regions, is paying off for LATAM as demand remains robust.</li>
<li>Such a strong recovery positions it to make further strategic gains, particularly with the risk that competitor GOL must shrink its fleet through its own CH11 processs.</li>
</ul>


LATAM Group surprised the market with strong guidance for 2024 earnings growth following upgrades through 2023. We raise our 2024 EBITDAR 14% to $2.8bn.
A successful restructuring under Chapter 11, and market leadership in key regions, is paying off for LATAM as demand remains robust.
Such a strong recovery positions it to make further strategic gains, particularly with the risk that competitor GOL must shrink its fleet through its own CH11 processs.


LATAM Group - Strong Momentum and Strategic Opportunities

Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.</li>
<li>We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.</li>
<li>We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.</li>
</ul>


GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.


GOL - Ramifications of GOL's Chapter 11 Filing

<ul>
<li>GOL has filed for CH11 in a New York court and will look to restructure, as major competitors/peers LATAM Group, Avianca and Aeromexico did when COVID struck, disadvantaging GOL.</li>
<li>To illustrate GOL's disadvantage; in 9M23, GOL's financing costs outweighed its EBITDAR to drive a negative PBT, whereas LATAM's PBT represented 29% of EBITDAR, despite lower EBITDAR margins of 22%. </li>
<li>Based on recent precedents, we expect the process may take two years.</li>
</ul>


GOL has filed for CH11 in a New York court and will look to restructure, as major competitors/peers LATAM Group, Avianca and Aeromexico did when COVID struck, disadvantaging GOL.
To illustrate GOL's disadvantage; in 9M23, GOL's financing costs outweighed its EBITDAR to drive a negative PBT, whereas LATAM's PBT represented 29% of EBITDAR, despite lower EBITDAR margins of 22%. 
Based on recent precedents, we expect the process may take two years.


GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability

Colombia

Avianca Holdings SA owns and operates airlines.  The Company offers scheduled air passenger transportation services within Colombia and to Central America, North America, South America, and Europe.

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Avianca Holdings Sa (PFAVH CB)

Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

Deep dive on Avianca 2024 earnings prospects utilising detailed quarterly earnings bridges and mapping developments relative to nearest peer LATAM...

Neil Glynn

Avianca - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Avianca's ESG as...

Lucror Analytics

LATAM Group - Strong Momentum and Strategic Opportunities

With LATAM announcing plans to relist on the NYSE today, we revisit our most recent deep dive on the company's earnings and cash flow prospects and...

Neil Glynn

GOL - Ramifications of GOL's Chapter 11 Filing

Detailed analysis of the ramifications of GOL's Chapter 11 filing for GOL and Abra Group including Avianca. GOL must reduce financing costs by...

Neil Glynn

GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability

Perspective on GOL filing for Chapter 11 in the US, including its disadvantage to restructured peers and the likely timeline based on recent...

Neil Glynn

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