Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems reported a stable set of results for the first quarter of 2024.</li><li>The company demonstrated resilience through flat year-over-year net sales and a significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA, which was reported as a record for any first quarter in the history of Axalta Coating Systems.</li><li>The margins have shown a notable improvement, providing optimism for further growth potential.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems reported a stable set of results for the first quarter of 2024.The company demonstrated resilience through flat year-over-year net sales and a significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA, which was reported as a record for any first quarter in the history of Axalta Coating Systems.The margins have shown a notable improvement, providing optimism for further growth potential.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.: Its Asia Expansion & Strategic Market Positioning Is Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.</li><li>reported Q4 net sales increasing by 5% year-over-year, amounting to $1.3 billion with contributions from both of its key business segments - Mobility Coatings and Performance Coatings.</li><li>This increase is further evidence of the impressive quarterly performance that Axalta has had, which includes a seventh consecutive quarter of mobility volumes growth, indicating the recovery of the automotive industry and successful reshaping of the company's portfolio.</li></ul>

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.reported Q4 net sales increasing by 5% year-over-year, amounting to $1.3 billion with contributions from both of its key business segments - Mobility Coatings and Performance Coatings.This increase is further evidence of the impressive quarterly performance that Axalta has had, which includes a seventh consecutive quarter of mobility volumes growth, indicating the recovery of the automotive industry and successful reshaping of the company's portfolio.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage - Increased focus on efficiency and productivity paying off? - Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> is down nearly 25% in a week after the large non-dilutive Offering which nevertheless increases Foreign Real World Float by 70+%.</li>
<li>The ratio of Forward PERe of Nippon Paint vs Peers is as low as it has been in many years, but EV/ForwardEBITDA remains high vs peers.</li>
<li>Investors who buy this deal or the Pricing Dip will be getting long next to ¥140-150bn of their closest friends who didn't own as much NPH one week ago.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) is down nearly 25% in a week after the large non-dilutive Offering which nevertheless increases Foreign Real World Float by 70+%.
The ratio of Forward PERe of Nippon Paint vs Peers is as low as it has been in many years, but EV/ForwardEBITDA remains high vs peers.
Investors who buy this deal or the Pricing Dip will be getting long next to ¥140-150bn of their closest friends who didn't own as much NPH one week ago.


Nippon Paint (4612) Secondary Pricing Approaches - Cheaper But...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-avia-avian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35034:1" rel="noopener">PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ)</a> will raise up to $405 million at an IPO range of IDR780-930. Selling shareholders will also raise up to $364 million through a private placement. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/avia-avian-ipo-initiation-painting-by-numbers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61202" rel="noopener">Avia Avian IPO Initiation: Painting by Numbers</a>, we noted that Avia is delivering strong growth, rising margins and strong cash generation. We concluded that Avia is worth a look.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Avia is fully priced at the IPO price range. Consequently, we would remain on the sidelines seeking a lower entry point. </li>
</ul>



PT Avia Avian (AVIA IJ) will raise up to $405 million at an IPO range of IDR780-930. Selling shareholders will also raise up to $364 million through a private placement. 
In Avia Avian IPO Initiation: Painting by Numbers, we noted that Avia is delivering strong growth, rising margins and strong cash generation. We concluded that Avia is worth a look.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Avia is fully priced at the IPO price range. Consequently, we would remain on the sidelines seeking a lower entry point. 


United States

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA US)

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.: Its Asia Expansion & Strategic Market Positioning Is Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Axalta Coating Systems reported a stable set of results for the first quarter of 2024. The company demonstrated resilience through flat...

Baptista Research

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage - Increased focus on efficiency and productivity paying off? - Major Drivers

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. reported Q4 net sales increasing by 5% year-over-year, amounting to $1.3 billion with contributions from both of its...

Baptista Research

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

Nippon Paint (4612) Secondary Pricing Approaches - Cheaper But...

The Nippon Paint (4612) Secondary likely prices 17 January after the stock has fallen 24% in a week since the announcement. It's cheaper. It's not...

Travis Lundy

Avia Avian IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that Avia is fully priced at the IPO price range. Consequently, we would remain on the sidelines seeking a lower...

Arun George

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