ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-in-robust-health-despite-transient-threat-of-us-s301-action" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43795" rel="noopener">Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-exports-covid-best-is-behind" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44020" rel="noopener">Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/media-nusantara-citra-mncn-ij-no-credit-given-for-metamorphosis" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> examines an aggressive sell-off in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indomobil-sukses-internasional-imas-ij-emerging-transport-monolith" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43927" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?,</a> CrossASEAN insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ),</a> which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mestika-dharma-september-quarter-reversals-surge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44089" rel="noopener">Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ammb-top-decile-ph-score-and-vfm-asset" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44065" rel="noopener">AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener"></a>In Singapore,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-singapore-reits-implications-from-cct-cmt-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-store-expansion-still-going-strong-undemanding-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43929" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation,</a> IPO specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> IPO tempting at the proposed price. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-quality-homes" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shifara Samsudeen</a> takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-inexpensive-valuation-compared-to-peers-despite-better-growth-profile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44019" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3297" rel="noopener">Shifara Samsudeen,</a> provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-best-inc-two-approaches-to-ecommerce-logistics-growth-in-se-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia</a> examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> and by<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BEST Inc (BEST US). </a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-positive-sentiments-from-joining-hands-with-pea-encom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43897" rel="noopener">BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b-grimm-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23996:1" rel="noopener">B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)</a> to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-positives-clouded-but-persist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Daniel Tabbush</a> discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silicon-stories-m-if-you-can-t-beat-them-join-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them</a>, Thai specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a>,  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-in-the-race-to-replace-cct-finally-some-daylight-emerges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43862" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact,</a> Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Hank Calenti, CFA</a> discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a>'s recent bond issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. </p><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-plight-of-the-garuda" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Plight of the Garuda</a>, Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Derek Silva</a>,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. In Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,Sharmila Whelan looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Indonesia, Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh examines an aggressive sell-off in Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  In Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?, CrossASEAN insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ), which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.In Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. In AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,Paul Hollingworth zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.In Singapore, Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger, Sumeet Singh takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. In MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation, IPO specialist Zhen Zhou, Toh revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. In Malaysia, Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights, Arun George provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) IPO tempting at the proposed price. In Malaysia, MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes, Shifara Samsudeen takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.In MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,Shifara Samsudeen, provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. In Thailand, Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) and by BEST Inc (BEST US). In BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM, our friends at Country Group expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. Sector and ThematicIn Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. In Thailand, Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them, Thai specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB),  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. In STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. Credit InsightsIn Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact, Credit Specialist Hank Calenti, CFA discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)'s recent bond issue. In Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,Hank Calenti, CFA dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. In Indonesia, The Plight of the Garuda, Credit Specialist Derek Silva,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>Today’s conference call with the management came out in a positive tone. We expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help BGRIM to expand the SPP client base and have synergy benefits of unto Bt1.0bn from cost saving and service efficiency.</strong></p><ul>
<li>Expect Bt1.0bn potential cost saving from cooperation with PEA ENCOM during 2020-25 period, including Bt315m initial cost saving in B.Grimm Power (AIE-MTP) project. BGRIM also disposed a 5% stake in 124MW BPAM (a subsidiary) to PEA ENCOM for a value of Bt200m.</li>
<li>The transaction is expected to have slight positive sentiments on share price performance. But, have negligible impact to our DCF based valuation.</li>
<li>Expect the 3Q20 earnings to improve YoY while remain stable QoQ.</li>
</ul><p><strong>We maintain the target price of Bt47, while upgrade our recommendation to BUY (from HOLD) due significant upside from current share price. Our valuation is derived using DCF methodology (6.9% WACC and 1% TG), implying 54x PE’20.</strong></p>

Today’s conference call with the management came out in a positive tone. We expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help BGRIM to expand the SPP client base and have synergy benefits of unto Bt1.0bn from cost saving and service efficiency.
Expect Bt1.0bn potential cost saving from cooperation with PEA ENCOM during 2020-25 period, including Bt315m initial cost saving in B.Grimm Power (AIE-MTP) project. BGRIM also disposed a 5% stake in 124MW BPAM (a subsidiary) to PEA ENCOM for a value of Bt200m.
The transaction is expected to have slight positive sentiments on share price performance. But, have negligible impact to our DCF based valuation.
Expect the 3Q20 earnings to improve YoY while remain stable QoQ.
We maintain the target price of Bt47, while upgrade our recommendation to BUY (from HOLD) due significant upside from current share price. Our valuation is derived using DCF methodology (6.9% WACC and 1% TG), implying 54x PE’20.

BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section><div id="ember1644"><div><p>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p></div></div></section>

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30

<p><strong>Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt47 derived using DCF valuation (6.9% WACC and 1% TG), implying 54x PE’20.</strong></p><ul>
<li>We expect the 3Q20 earnings to improve YoY, while remaining stable QoQ.</li>
<li>The IU sales is expected to bottom out in 2Q20 and improve +15% QoQ in 3Q20, on the back of recovering operations of automobile and tire sector clients.</li>
<li>We like BGRIM for its lucrative power generation portfolio focused on SPP and renewables. We expect the acquisition or announcement of new project to bring further upside to the stock.</li>
<li>Lowering gas price and stable Ft tariff rate could lead to a potential upside to our 2021-22 earnings forecast and target price. We will review this potential after 3Q20 analyst meeting.</li>
</ul>

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt47 derived using DCF valuation (6.9% WACC and 1% TG), implying 54x PE’20.
We expect the 3Q20 earnings to improve YoY, while remaining stable QoQ.
The IU sales is expected to bottom out in 2Q20 and improve +15% QoQ in 3Q20, on the back of recovering operations of automobile and tire sector clients.
We like BGRIM for its lucrative power generation portfolio focused on SPP and renewables. We expect the acquisition or announcement of new project to bring further upside to the stock.
Lowering gas price and stable Ft tariff rate could lead to a potential upside to our 2021-22 earnings forecast and target price. We will review this potential after 3Q20 analyst meeting.


BGRIM: Positive 3Q20 Earnings Outlook from Recovering IU Sales

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.



The number of deals coming to market have slowed down as compared to the mad rush in June but we are now getting wind of larger IPOs that are looking to come to the market soon. Most notably, Ant Financial (1051260D CH) confirmed its plan to list on STAR and Hong Kong Exchange whereas Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (300347 CH)'s dual listing is said to be aiming to raise about US$1bn. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM covered the two IPOs in his notes this week:


Tigermed (泰格医疗) A+H: PHIP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation 

Ant Financial (蚂蚁金服) IPO Early Thought: What's New About the Listing News 

We also covered other upcoming IPOs that have recently filed their application proof with HKEX such as Blue Moon and Jiayuan Services.


Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales 

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising 

Jiayuan Services (佳源服务) Pre-IPO - Another Small Property Management Company 

In India, Mindspace Business Parks REIT (MBP IN) launched its bookbuild and has already counted various reputable institutional investors as strategic (cornerstone) investors. Sumeet Singh shared his thoughts on valuation and deal dynamics.


Mindspace Business Parks REIT IPO - Price Appears Fair, Strategic Investors Are Top-Notch 

China ADR listing has also been picking up some momentum despite political tensions between China and the US. KE Holdings, which is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Softbank Group (9984 JP) and owns Lianjia and Beike, filed its prospectus with the SEC. We will share our thoughts on the IPO next week. Also, Li Auto Inc. (LI US) launched its IPO  and is expecting to raise up to US$950m. 


Li Auto (理想汽车) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Margins May Look like BYD, but Sells like NIO 

There were only two sell downs by investors this week as global markets looked a little shaky. Asian Development Bank partially sold its investments in Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) and B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) on the same day and, strangely enough, GULF announced that it plans to raise about US$1bn via a rights issue, right after the selldown was completed. 

Innovent Biologics (信达生物) Placement - Back on the Market but This Time with Secondary Selldown

Gulf Energy Placement - No Big Deal 





Accuracy Rate:



Our overall accuracy rate is 73% for IPOs and 65.8% for Placements 


(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)






New IPO filings this week  





KE Holdings (the U.S., US$1bn)
Everest Medicine (Hong Kong, ~US$300m) 
Strawbear Entertainment (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
E-Star Commercial Management (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)



Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.






News on Upcoming IPOs  





Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing considering Hong Kong IPO
China's Didi Chuxing says it currently has no plans for IPO
Chinese fintech giant Ant to go public in dual Shanghai-Hong Kong IPO
Tigermed to raise at least $1 billion in Hong Kong deal






Name
Insight


Hong Kong


Ant Financial
Ant Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth &amp; Risk Factors


Ant Financial

Ant Financial (蚂蚁金服) IPO Early Thought: What's New About the Listing News 


Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising 



Blue Moon

Blue Moon: No. 1 But No Exclusive Advantage, Observation on the Ground 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 



ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 



ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO - Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 



Genor

Genor (嘉和生物) Pre-IPO: Slow R&amp;D Progress in the past but that Might Change 



Jiayuan Svcs

Jiayuan Services (佳源服务) Pre-IPO - Another Small Property Management Company 



Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - Rapid Earnings Growth on the Back of Margin Improvement 



Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - A Lot of Things Still Remain Unexplained 



Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - Remarkable Growth (Part 1) 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - A Bet on the Future - Segments, Revenue Drivers and Growth Potential 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - The Real Race Is in Research - Founders' Profile and Talent 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO - Competitive Landscape and Peer Analysis 


Megvii

Megvii (旷视) Pre-IPO -  Initial Thoughts on Valuation 


Nongfu

Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - The Positives - Leaves One Thirsty for More 


Nongfu

Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Doesn't Need to List or Expand Production Facilities 


Nongfu

Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Superior Margins and Growth 


Nongfu

Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉) IPO: Beverage for the Young, In-Store Photos 


Ocumension

Ocumension (欧康维视) Pre-IPO: All Ready for a Great Listing Except a Block Buster 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is It a Brand Owner or Just a Retailer? 


Pop Mart

Pop Mart Pre-IPO - The Positives - Expanding Portfolio+Wider Distribution= Explosive Earnings Growth 


Radiance

Radiance Holdings (金辉控股) Pre-IPO - Property Mgt Svc Sold Out at a Ridiculously Cheap Valuation 


Shimao Svcs

Shimao Services (世茂服务) Pre-IPO - Community VAS Segment Is the Star 


Simcere

Simcere (先声制药) Pre-IPO: Long History but Products Concentrated 


Tasly

Tasly Biopharm (天士力生物) IPO: Visible Growth from Approved Drug but Lacks Blockbusters 


Tigermed

Tigermed (泰格医疗) A+H: PHIP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation 


Weihai Bank

Weihai City Commercial Bank Pre-IPO - More of an Asset Manager Rather than a Lender 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through - The Online Medical Directory and More 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO - A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 


India


ASK

ASK Investment Managers Pre-IPO - Riding on a Wave of Wealth 


Anmol Ind
Anmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take - No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders


Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO - Catching up with Peers 



Burger King

Burger King India Pre-IPO - Has Been Growing Fast and Plans to Grow Even Faster 



Burger King

Burger King India Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison Yields Interesting Nuggets on Profitability and Capex 



Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO - Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 



CAMS

CAMS Pre-IPO - Quasi Monopoly Status Muddled by Inconsistent Performance 


CMS Info
CMS Info Systems Pre-IPO - When a PE Sells to Another PE... Only One Gets the Timing Right


Crystal Crop
Crystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO - DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers


ESAF SFB

ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 


Equitas SFB

Equitas Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Another Forced Small Finance Bank Listing 


Equitas SFB

Equitas Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Another Forced Small Finance Bank Listing 


Flemingo 
Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO - Its a Different Business in Every Country


Emami Cem

Emami Cement Pre-IPO - Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 


IRFC

Indian Railway Finance Pre-IPO - Low Risk, Low Margin Business 


NSE
NSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive


NSE
National Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review - Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some


Mazagon
Mazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending


Mindspace

Mindspace Business Parks REIT Pre-IPO - Decent Growth but Not All Assets Are Equal 


Mindspace

Mindspace Business Parks REIT Pre-IPO - Updates Aren't so Great 


Mrs. Bector
Mrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take - Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta



LIC


Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO - Early Take on India's Largest IPO 



Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO - Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable


Lodha
Lodha Developers IPO: Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt


Penna Cem

Penna Cement - Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 


PNB Met
PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take - Doesn't Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers


Samhi Hotels

Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO - Assets and Borrowings Are Growing, but Earnings Haven’t Kept Pace 


UTI AMC

UTI Asset Management Company Pre-IPO - Well past Its Remote Glory Days 



Malaysia


Mr DIY

Mr D.I.Y. Pre-IPO - Largest Home Improvement Retailer in Malaysia 


Mr DIY

Mr D.I.Y. Pre-IPO - Store Walk-Through and Thoughts on Value Proposition 


Mr DIY

Mr D.I.Y. Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Small Stores with Dominant Market Share  


Mr DIY

Mr D.I.Y. Pre-IPO - Assumptions and Thoughts on Valuation 


QSR
QSR Brands Pre-IPO - As Healthy as Fast Food


Thailand


PTTOR

PTT Oil and Retail IPO - F&amp;B Business Is the Profit Driver 


SCGP

SCGP Pre-IPO - Shift to Packaging Has Been Aiding Margins but Acquisition Drove up Leverage 


The U.S


CDP

CDP Holdings Pre-IPO Review - Highly Reliant on Best Inc. 


CloudMinds
CloudMinds Inc Early Thoughts - Still Nascent


Li Auto

Li Auto (理想汽车) Pre-IPO - Taking the Long Way Around 


Li Auto

Li Auto (理想汽车): Visit Li Auto Store and Find Out License Game 


Li Auto

Li Auto (理想汽车) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Margins May Look like BYD, but Sells like NIO 





ECM Weekly (26 July 2020) - Li Auto, Ant Financial, Tigermed, Mindspace, Blue Moon

Thailand

B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited operates as a renewable energy company. The Company focuses on the development, financing, construction, and operation of green field power plants. B.Grimm Power also renders electricity distribution, operations, and maintenance services. B.Grimm Power serves clients in Asia.

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B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma includes a curation of the past week's insights across SE Asia together with value-added commentary on...

Angus Mackintosh

BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM

Today’s conference call with the management came out in a positive tone. We expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help BGRIM to expand the SPP...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai...

A. Stotz Investment Research

BGRIM: Positive 3Q20 Earnings Outlook from Recovering IU Sales

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the HOLD rating based on a target price of Bt47 derived using DCF valuation...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

ECM Weekly (26 July 2020) - Li Auto, Ant Financial, Tigermed, Mindspace, Blue Moon

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. The...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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