Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAE ownership jumped from 29.4% to 36.7% of UK funds, reaching its strongest level in two years.</li>
<li>Despite gains, BAE remains the sixth-largest underweight versus the FTSE All-Share.</li>
<li>BAE dominates UK aerospace and defence peers, but underweights may be harder to defend amid Europe’s rearmament and geopolitical tensions.</li>
</ul>


BAE ownership jumped from 29.4% to 36.7% of UK funds, reaching its strongest level in two years.
Despite gains, BAE remains the sixth-largest underweight versus the FTSE All-Share.
BAE dominates UK aerospace and defence peers, but underweights may be harder to defend amid Europe’s rearmament and geopolitical tensions.


BAE Systems: Positioning Rebounds, Underweight Widens

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.</li>
<li>There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. </li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. 
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be <em>very</em> high impact.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.
Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

United Kingdom

Babcock International Group plc offers support services to public sector institutions.  The Company offers facilities management, training, and support services to defense, rail transportation, marine, and other public sector organizations.  Babcock serves customers in Europe, Africa, and North America.

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Babcock International Group Pl (BAB LN)

BAE Systems: Positioning Rebounds, Underweight Widens

BAE Systems ownership has rebounded sharply, cementing its lead in UK defence holdings. Yet it remains a key underweight, raising risks for...

Steven Holden

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Defense Index sees 3 ADDs for June 2025. This is an index family which gives short notice. We expect $500mm+ of one-way flows for...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

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