Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will go to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.</li>
<li>There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).</li>
</ul>


There are 3 potential changes for the HSIII Index in September. There are couple of names that are close to the inclusion/ deletion thresholds.
The largest inflows will go to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) following lock-up expiry that increases the Free-Float Adjusted Factor (FAF) by a factor of 7-8x.
There are large capping changes too and the estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$5.65bn (US$720m).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

<ul>
<li>There should be big passive inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.</li>
<li>Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.</li>
<li>Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.</li>
</ul>


There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sicc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36273:1" rel="noopener">SICC (688234 CH)</a>, a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.</li>
</ul>



SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.
In terms of market share, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.


SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Jul): Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

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Baidu (9888 HK)

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Constituent, FAF & Capping Changes

There could be 3 constituent changes in Sep. A big FAF increase is forecast for Horizon Robotics. Plenty of capping changes. Put together, that...

Brian Freitas

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

Index inclusion and float increase over the next 6 weeks could lead to US$1bn of inflows to Horizon Robotics. Stock Connect investors hold around...

Brian Freitas

SICC A/H Listing - PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Earning Revision (Jul): Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Jul 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Jd, CCB, Meituan, BOC, ICBC, Xinyi Solar, Bidu.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)