Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>With short-term implied volatility below its median, long volatility strategies dominate, with a balanced mix of bullish and bearish positions. </li>
<li>Open interest spread across monthly and quarterly expiries, with some notable strategies taking advantage of longer expiration dates, and a steep negatively sloped skew $475.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
With short-term implied volatility below its median, long volatility strategies dominate, with a balanced mix of bullish and bearish positions. 
Open interest spread across monthly and quarterly expiries, with some notable strategies taking advantage of longer expiration dates, and a steep negatively sloped skew $475.


Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> put out June rebal predictions on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-hscei-jun25-large-price-swings-needed-to-trigger-index-changes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-hstech-jun25-us-204mn-one-way-no-index-changes-likely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-hsiii-jun25-sep25-capping-flows-in-june-and-index-changes-in-september" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Internet &amp; Infotech</a> on 17-Mar-25 (and 7 mainland indices 19-21 March) and...</li>
<li>...the Quiddity team put out its regular predictions of all 7 major HS indices and 11 mainland indices, but on 21-March after the close, the Hang Seng team updated methodology.</li>
<li>They changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices. It affects only a few names, but this adds US$2.7bn of buying to three names.</li>
</ul>



Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA put out June rebal predictions on HSCEI, HSTECH, and Hang Seng Internet &amp; Infotech on 17-Mar-25 (and 7 mainland indices 19-21 March) and...
...the Quiddity team put out its regular predictions of all 7 major HS indices and 11 mainland indices, but on 21-March after the close, the Hang Seng team updated methodology.
They changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices. It affects only a few names, but this adds US$2.7bn of buying to three names.


Changes to Hang Seng Methodology - Early Doors but $3bn a Side Across Major Indices

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;</li>
<li>Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;</li>
<li>Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.</li>
</ul>


Our take is JD.com's expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;
Meituan, PDD' and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn't mention;
Game received first official recognition in government's 30 stimulative measures for consumption.  Our TOP PICK is NTES.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

<ul>
<li>Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;</li>
<li>JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;</li>
<li>NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.</li>
</ul>


Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu's search market share;
JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek's (DS) low-cost, high-performance open-source model fundamentally altered the AI landscape, but server overload of DS's chatbot caused poor user experience;</li>
<li>Among many Internet platforms that integrated DS into their products, Tencent stood to benefit the most. Through DS, Tencent LLM climbed 3 spots to unseat ByteDance to become the No.1;</li>
<li>What Tencent has done right including preprocessing, answer caching and building dedicated nodes. Now Manus is catching the imagination of AI monetization, Tencent can possible benefit more.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek's (DS) low-cost, high-performance open-source model fundamentally altered the AI landscape, but server overload of DS's chatbot caused poor user experience;
Among many Internet platforms that integrated DS into their products, Tencent stood to benefit the most. Through DS, Tencent LLM climbed 3 spots to unseat ByteDance to become the No.1;
What Tencent has done right including preprocessing, answer caching and building dedicated nodes. Now Manus is catching the imagination of AI monetization, Tencent can possible benefit more.


Surprise! The Biggest Beneficiary of Cloud DeepSeek Is Tencent...Will Manus Be the Same?

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

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Baidu (BIDU US)

Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades

Strategies show dominance of long volatility approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish positions, taking advantage of longer expiration dates...

Gaudenz Schneider

Changes to Hang Seng Methodology - Early Doors but $3bn a Side Across Major Indices

A few days ago, the Hang Seng Index Team announced a rule change for counting float of Secondary Listings. Small beans perhaps but the top three...

Travis Lundy

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Surprise! The Biggest Beneficiary of Cloud DeepSeek Is Tencent...Will Manus Be the Same?

DeepSeek-R1's integration into Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" improves user experience and boosts the latter users to 17 mn. Tencent also did a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades

Strategies show dominance of long volatility approaches with a mix of bullish and bearish positions, taking advantage of longer expiration dates...

Gaudenz Schneider

Changes to Hang Seng Methodology - Early Doors but $3bn a Side Across Major Indices

A few days ago, the Hang Seng Index Team announced a rule change for counting float of Secondary Listings. Small beans perhaps but the top three...

Travis Lundy

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

​JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas

​Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Surprise! The Biggest Beneficiary of Cloud DeepSeek Is Tencent...Will Manus Be the Same?

​DeepSeek-R1's integration into Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" improves user experience and boosts the latter users to 17 mn. Tencent also did a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com's measured expansion into O2O/Food Delivery targets premium members. Government recognition of gaming in consumption stimulus measures...

Competitors target Baidu's search market, JD.com seeks new growth in Europe, Weibo disappoints in earnings, Kingsoft has successful game.

DeepSeek-R1's integration into Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" improves user experience and boosts the latter users to 17 mn. Tencent also did a...