Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. </li>
<li>Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. </li>
<li>While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. </li>
</ul>



Eicher Motors (EIM IN) is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. 
Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. 
While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. 


Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

<ul>
<li>We visit dealers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> to understand the current demand environment for Electric Vehicles(EV).</li>
<li>High fuel prices and a very low base lead to high growth for EV OEMs</li>
<li>Customers are waiting for launches from legacy players and a reduction in battery cost to decide the best alternative, but this is costing the overall 2W industry lower volumes. </li>
</ul>


We visit dealers of Honda Motor (7267 JP) , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) to understand the current demand environment for Electric Vehicles(EV).
High fuel prices and a very low base lead to high growth for EV OEMs
Customers are waiting for launches from legacy players and a reduction in battery cost to decide the best alternative, but this is costing the overall 2W industry lower volumes. 


India Channel Insight #28 | What Is the Two-Wheeler EV Scene in India?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The focus of this channel Insight is the state of Uttar Pradesh, one of the largest and most important states in India currently undergoing Legislative elections. </li>
<li>The objective is to know the on-ground narrative about business and elections and is not aimed at forecasting the outcome of the event. </li>
<li>Business sentiment is not very encouraging, however, most of them seem to be hinting at the ruling party BJP remaining in power. </li>
</ul>


The focus of this channel Insight is the state of Uttar Pradesh, one of the largest and most important states in India currently undergoing Legislative elections. 
The objective is to know the on-ground narrative about business and elections and is not aimed at forecasting the outcome of the event. 
Business sentiment is not very encouraging, however, most of them seem to be hinting at the ruling party BJP remaining in power. 


India Channel Insight # 27 | Postcard from Uttar Pradesh (UP) | BJP Likely to Remain in Power

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN)</a> reported record quarterly profit of INR 2,125cr on the back of strong growth in AUM and improving asset quality.</li>
<li>BAF has launched its Phase 1 digital transformation. This quarter, it shared detailed updates around it. It is now working on year-long step-wise Phase 2 launch.</li>
<li>With liquidity buffer normalizing, asset quality improving, and customer acquisition accelerating led by digital initiatives, we believe BAF is at an interesting inflection point.</li>
</ul>



Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) reported record quarterly profit of INR 2,125cr on the back of strong growth in AUM and improving asset quality.
BAF has launched its Phase 1 digital transformation. This quarter, it shared detailed updates around it. It is now working on year-long step-wise Phase 2 launch.
With liquidity buffer normalizing, asset quality improving, and customer acquisition accelerating led by digital initiatives, we believe BAF is at an interesting inflection point.


Bajaj Finance: Gearing Up To Become India's Dominant Fintech

India

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

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Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

We expect Eicher Motors (EIM IN) outperformance to continue. Improvement in supplies, New models, Export margins, and the ability to manage cost...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

Brian Freitas

India Channel Insight #28 | What Is the Two-Wheeler EV Scene in India?

We visit dealers of Honda Motor (7267 JP) , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) to understand the current demand environment for...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight # 27 | Postcard from Uttar Pradesh (UP) | BJP Likely to Remain in Power

The focus of this channel Insight is the state of Uttar Pradesh, one of the largest and most important states in India currently undergoing...

Pranav Bhavsar

Bajaj Finance: Gearing Up To Become India's Dominant Fintech

BAF is at an inflection point led by its digital transformation. Recent volatility in its stock offers a good opportunity to accumulate.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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