Musings on Markets and Investing, Sometimes Confused but Always Curious

Samir Mehta

Musings on Markets and Investing

Sometimes Confused but Always Curious

Musings on markets and investing with an occasional philosophical detour from great books.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In mid-June, I met Naveen Pandey, the newish-CEO of Bajaj Consumer Care, an Indian listed company.</li><li>That I was impressed is an understatement; the detailed conversation and impressions are for a missive at another time.</li><li>Briefly, Bajaj’s main stay product is almond hair oil.</li></ul>

In mid-June, I met Naveen Pandey, the newish-CEO of Bajaj Consumer Care, an Indian listed company.That I was impressed is an understatement; the detailed conversation and impressions are for a missive at another time.Briefly, Bajaj’s main stay product is almond hair oil.

Splitting Hairs: Chinese Consumer Names Are Still Not Cheap - Need a Mindset Change

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Copra prices have corrected ~30% from July 2025 peaks as of January 2026, signaling the end of a hyper-inflationary cycle that saw costs double YoY.</li>
<li>Raw material costs represent up to 50% of the COGS for coconut oil leaders. This correction provides massive tailwind for gross margin expansion for Companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>. </li>
<li>Companies expect Copra prices will further soften by March 2026 "flush season" and that will help companies in margin repair.</li>
</ul>


Copra prices have corrected ~30% from July 2025 peaks as of January 2026, signaling the end of a hyper-inflationary cycle that saw costs double YoY.
Raw material costs represent up to 50% of the COGS for coconut oil leaders. This correction provides massive tailwind for gross margin expansion for Companies like Marico Ltd (MRCO IN). 
Companies expect Copra prices will further soften by March 2026 "flush season" and that will help companies in margin repair.


How Falling Prices of Copra Are Reshaping India's FMCG Margins in 2026?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>The GST Council has simplified India’s indirect tax structure, cutting rates across daily essentials and consolidating slabs into 5% and 18%, with a new 40% bracket for sin goods.</li>
<li>
Consumption accounts for over 60% of GDP, and this tax reset is designed to revive household demand. We expect a 0.5-1% boost to GDP growth over the next 4–6 quarters.</li>
<li>
FMCG companies with price-sensitive portfolios, biscuits, hair oils, shampoo sachets, stand to gain most. Retailers and QSRs will ride the consumption uplift, while tobacco taxation remains unresolved beyond 2025.</li>
</ul>


The GST Council has simplified India’s indirect tax structure, cutting rates across daily essentials and consolidating slabs into 5% and 18%, with a new 40% bracket for sin goods.

Consumption accounts for over 60% of GDP, and this tax reset is designed to revive household demand. We expect a 0.5-1% boost to GDP growth over the next 4–6 quarters.

FMCG companies with price-sensitive portfolios, biscuits, hair oils, shampoo sachets, stand to gain most. Retailers and QSRs will ride the consumption uplift, while tobacco taxation remains unresolved beyond 2025.


GST 2.0: Will India’s Biggest Tax Reset Spark a Consumption Boom or Drive Margin Expansion?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Amagi Media Labs / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amagi-media-labs-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45644:1" rel="noopener">Amagi Media Labs (AMAGI IN)</a> raised about US$190m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>AML enables its clients to manage, distribute, and monetize live, linear, and on-demand content seamlessly across traditional TV, Over-The-Top (OTT), and Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV (FAST) platforms.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement</li>
</ul>



Amagi Media Labs (AMAGI IN) raised about US$190m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
AML enables its clients to manage, distribute, and monetize live, linear, and on-demand content seamlessly across traditional TV, Over-The-Top (OTT), and Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV (FAST) platforms.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement


Aequitas: Amagi Media Labs IPO Lockup Expiry - US$760m Release; Pre-IPO Investors Well in The Money

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation<ul class="">
<li>Consumer electrical leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9158" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1">Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN)</a> saw single digit revenue growth and sharp reduction in operating margins as (1) the channel destocked 40-50% of the 45-60 day inventory, (2) it was unable to take the requisite price hikes to offset increase in input cost.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13828" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1">Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN)</a> reported flat volume YoY after +4% volume growth in 4QFY17. It said rural channel was more impacted than urban resulting in decline in rural…</li>
</ul>

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation
Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp reduction in operating margins as (1) the channel destocked 40-50% of the 45-60 day inventory, (2) it was unable to take the requisite price hikes to offset increase in input cost.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN) reported flat volume YoY after +4% volume growth in 4QFY17. It said rural channel was more impacted than urban resulting in decline in rural…


India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

India

Bajaj Consumer Care Limited develops and manufactures a wide range of hair care products. The Company offers a wide range of hair oils for different hair types.

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Bajaj Consumer Care Limited (BJCOR IN)

Splitting Hairs: Chinese Consumer Names Are Still Not Cheap - Need a Mindset Change

In mid-June, I met Naveen Pandey, the newish-CEO of Bajaj Consumer Care, an Indian listed company. That I was impressed is an understatement; the...

Samir Mehta

How Falling Prices of Copra Are Reshaping India's FMCG Margins in 2026?

Copra prices have dropped ~30% from July 2025 peaks, benefiting coconut oil leaders like Marico Ltd with potential for gross margin expansion....

Sudarshan Bhandari

GST 2.0: Will India’s Biggest Tax Reset Spark a Consumption Boom or Drive Margin Expansion?

India's GST Council cuts rates on essentials, simplifies tax structure to boost household demand and GDP growth, benefiting FMCG companies and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Aequitas: Amagi Media Labs IPO Lockup Expiry - US$760m Release; Pre-IPO Investors Well in The Money

A group of investors, including Trudy Holdings, AVP I Fund, and Accel India, have launched a INR6bn (US$63m) selldown, together selling 10.9m...

Akshat Shah

India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Splitting Hairs: Chinese Consumer Names Are Still Not Cheap - Need a Mindset Change

In mid-June, I met Naveen Pandey, the newish-CEO of Bajaj Consumer Care, an Indian listed company. That I was impressed is an understatement; the...

Samir Mehta

How Falling Prices of Copra Are Reshaping India's FMCG Margins in 2026?

​Copra prices have dropped ~30% from July 2025 peaks, benefiting coconut oil leaders like Marico Ltd with potential for gross margin expansion....

Sudarshan Bhandari

GST 2.0: Will India’s Biggest Tax Reset Spark a Consumption Boom or Drive Margin Expansion?

​India's GST Council cuts rates on essentials, simplifies tax structure to boost household demand and GDP growth, benefiting FMCG companies and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Aequitas: Amagi Media Labs IPO Lockup Expiry - US$760m Release; Pre-IPO Investors Well in The Money

A group of investors, including Trudy Holdings, AVP I Fund, and Accel India, have launched a INR6bn (US$63m) selldown, together selling 10.9m...

Akshat Shah

India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Copra prices have dropped ~30% from July 2025 peaks, benefiting coconut oil leaders like Marico Ltd with potential for gross margin expansion....

India's GST Council cuts rates on essentials, simplifies tax structure to boost household demand and GDP growth, benefiting FMCG companies and...