Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is a widely followed benchmark index in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>With the base date on 31st August 2026, we expect six ADDs and six DELs. The rankings are tight and even small price swings could shake things up.</li>
<li>We can expect the results to be announced after market close on 1st September 2026. </li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is a widely followed benchmark index in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
With the base date on 31st August 2026, we expect six ADDs and six DELs. The rankings are tight and even small price swings could shake things up.
We can expect the results to be announced after market close on 1st September 2026. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep26: Six ADDs and Six DELs Expected; Borderline Names to Be Monitored

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is a widely followed benchmark index in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>The potential ADDs and DELs of SE600 September 2026 rebal are starting to take shape, with the ranking cutoff (31st August 2026 close) now about six weeks away.</li>
<li>We now expect three intra-review index changes <em>before</em> the regular rebal and seven regular changes during the September 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is a widely followed benchmark index in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
The potential ADDs and DELs of SE600 September 2026 rebal are starting to take shape, with the ranking cutoff (31st August 2026 close) now about six weeks away.
We now expect three intra-review index changes before the regular rebal and seven regular changes during the September 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep26: Base Date Six Weeks Out; Seven ADDs and DELs Likely

<p>Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). </p>

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Norway

Bakkafrost P/F operates a fish farm. The Company offers a wide range of salmon products supplied by its own processing facilities. Bakkafrost provides fresh salmon to the fresh fish market, smokehouses and processors of ready meals, and frozen salmon portions vacuum packed in catering boxes or in retailboxes.

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Bakkafrost P/F (BAKKA NO)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep26: Six ADDs and Six DELs Expected; Borderline Names to Be Monitored

Expected ADDs Alior Bank and Vontobel could see 3x ADV to buy. Expected DELs Wihlborgs Fastigheter, Kemira and Bucher could see more than 2x ADV to...

Afridi Reyal

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep26: Base Date Six Weeks Out; Seven ADDs and DELs Likely

The SE600 Rankings are stabilizing with six weeks to go; banking-name ADDs Alior Bank, Van Lanschot Kempen, and Vontobel are expected to see...

Afridi Reyal

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

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