Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>EM Bank shares have lifted off their recent lows, as investor sentiment turns in favour of value in general, and attractive value EM assets in particular</li></ul><ul><li>We highlight 5 EM banks we see as standouts on our bank screens, and in which EM investors have reduced weightings throughout 2020, and are likely to rebuild positions going forward; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc-cde59529-fb78-4659-85d0-127942b44ba7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27581:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER RM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turkiye-garanti-bankasi-as" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25026:1" rel="noopener">Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As (GARAN TI)</a> </li></ul><ul><li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinhan-financial-group-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4534:1" rel="noopener">Shinhan Financial Group Adr (SHG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> as other positive re-rating plays, based on attractive valuations and sound balance sheet metrics</li></ul><ul><li>We also believe that EM bank core holdings throughout the pandemic crisis, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, may, in valuation terms, now be more exposed to negative rotation</li></ul><ul><li>Risks to our view include a worsening of sentiment towards EM equities and banks in particular, due to a deterioration in the pandemic outlook and a worsening of the macro-economic outlook for emerging markets</li></ul>

EM Bank shares have lifted off their recent lows, as investor sentiment turns in favour of value in general, and attractive value EM assets in particularWe highlight 5 EM banks we see as standouts on our bank screens, and in which EM investors have reduced weightings throughout 2020, and are likely to rebuild positions going forward; Credicorp Ltd (BAP US), Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ), Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF), Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER RM) and Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As (GARAN TI) We like Shinhan Financial Group Adr (SHG US) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) as other positive re-rating plays, based on attractive valuations and sound balance sheet metricsWe also believe that EM bank core holdings throughout the pandemic crisis, such as Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), may, in valuation terms, now be more exposed to negative rotationRisks to our view include a worsening of sentiment towards EM equities and banks in particular, due to a deterioration in the pandemic outlook and a worsening of the macro-economic outlook for emerging markets

EM Banks: Screening for Value and Resilience

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2Q20 screens reveal the wide range in cost of risk amongst EM banks</li>
<li>We screen for banks that are well capitalised and have ”kitchen sinked” loan provision charges, even though this potentially sacrifices near term returns</li>
<li>We also take into account valuation versus returns metrics</li>
<li>Our analysis picks are skewed towards LatAm, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a> at the top of the attractive pile, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a> also screening well on value, albeit to a lesser degree</li>
<li>Outside of LatAm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commercial-international-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27625:1" rel="noopener">Commercial International Bank (COMI EY)</a>  screens well, along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:714:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)</a> and – one newcomer since our July report – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bdo-unibank-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:329:1" rel="noopener">BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM)</a> </li>
<li>Names to watch include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc-cde59529-fb78-4659-85d0-127942b44ba7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27581:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER RM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bradesco-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24569:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ)</a> and – even though outside the value spectrum – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> </li>
<li>Risks to our view include a protracted downturn that warrants further large loan loss provisioning charges going forward, which suppress profitability</li>
</ul>


Our 2Q20 screens reveal the wide range in cost of risk amongst EM banks
We screen for banks that are well capitalised and have ”kitchen sinked” loan provision charges, even though this potentially sacrifices near term returns
We also take into account valuation versus returns metrics
Our analysis picks are skewed towards LatAm, with Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) and Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF) at the top of the attractive pile, and Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) also screening well on value, albeit to a lesser degree
Outside of LatAm, Commercial International Bank (COMI EY)  screens well, along with China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH) and – one newcomer since our July report – BDO Unibank Inc (BDO PM) 
Names to watch include Sberbank of Russia PJSC (SBER RM), Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ) and – even though outside the value spectrum – Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) 
Risks to our view include a protracted downturn that warrants further large loan loss provisioning charges going forward, which suppress profitability


EM Banks Through the Credit Quality and Value Lens

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Our top five picks for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) price accretion comprise bonds issued by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tmb-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8090:1" rel="noopener">TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-santander-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27709:1" rel="noopener">Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11 BZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizens-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16004:1" rel="noopener">Citizens Financial (CFG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a>.  Three banks issued AT1 notes with coupons lower than yields on their respective shorter callable bonds over the last two weeks. The result was a jump in the price of the shorter callable bonds. Information price discovery drove this impact. For more on this, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chong-hing-bank-at1-alchemy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41645" rel="noopener">Chong Hing Bank: AT1 Alchemy</a>. The alchemy behind these moves requires deconstructing bond spread components to separate the underlying credit risk of the firm from the non-call risk of the security. We then model the possible impact from issuing new AT1 bonds on the price of already outstanding securities.

Our top five picks for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) price accretion comprise bonds issued by TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB), Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11 BZ), Citizens Financial (CFG US), Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF) and Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ).  Three banks issued AT1 notes with coupons lower than yields on their respective shorter callable bonds over the last two weeks. The result was a jump in the price of the shorter callable bonds. Information price discovery drove this impact. For more on this, please see: Chong Hing Bank: AT1 Alchemy. The alchemy behind these moves requires deconstructing bond spread components to separate the underlying credit risk of the firm from the non-call risk of the security. We then model the possible impact from issuing new AT1 bonds on the price of already outstanding securities. 

Bank Credit Strategy: Pre-Positioning for AT1 Price Accretion

<ul>
<li>Banks in EM need to be prepared for the deteriorating credit quality outlook, as the Covid-19 driven contraction in GDP growth and economic activity takes hold</li>
<li>In this report, we look at the 1Q20 data in terms of balance sheet resilience – leverage ratio as well as NPL ratio and coverage – and which banks have been most proactive in the bolstering of loan loss provisioning</li>
<li>We then apply our valuation screen to see which attractively valued stocks – in terms of book value versus returns – are best prepared for the potential credit quality challenges, from loan loss provisioning and capital buffer perspectives</li>
<li>Our conclusions are that the best ranked are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> in Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a> in LatAm and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commercial-international-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27625:1" rel="noopener">Commercial International Bank (COMI EY)</a> of Egypt in CEEMEA</li>
<li>We also identify another four EM banks that rank solidly in the “runners up” category, and which we discuss in the report</li>
<li>By contrast, the three Indian banks included in this report generally rank poorly</li>
<li>Risks to our positively viewed EM banks include a more protracted and deeper hit to emerging economies adding to NPLs and needing further big bad loan provision charges, along with lower loan volumes and tighter lending spreads</li>
</ul>


Banks in EM need to be prepared for the deteriorating credit quality outlook, as the Covid-19 driven contraction in GDP growth and economic activity takes hold
In this report, we look at the 1Q20 data in terms of balance sheet resilience – leverage ratio as well as NPL ratio and coverage – and which banks have been most proactive in the bolstering of loan loss provisioning
We then apply our valuation screen to see which attractively valued stocks – in terms of book value versus returns – are best prepared for the potential credit quality challenges, from loan loss provisioning and capital buffer perspectives
Our conclusions are that the best ranked are China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) in Asia, Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) and Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF) in LatAm and Commercial International Bank (COMI EY) of Egypt in CEEMEA
We also identify another four EM banks that rank solidly in the “runners up” category, and which we discuss in the report
By contrast, the three Indian banks included in this report generally rank poorly
Risks to our positively viewed EM banks include a more protracted and deeper hit to emerging economies adding to NPLs and needing further big bad loan provision charges, along with lower loan volumes and tighter lending spreads


Emerging Market Banks: Measuring Their Response and Resilience to the Tougher Credit Quality Outlook

<ul><li>The Covid-19 pandemic is driving customer to change behaviour, and is accelerating and deepening the shift to digital banking and financial services, which presents hurdles for incumbents and mainly opportunities for FinTechs</li></ul><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a>  is our preferred name on growth potential, solidity of capital base and steady customer growth; it offers premium growth prospects and trades on an attractive PEG</li></ul><ul><li>In the Brazil digital banking space, the leader, Nubank, remains privately owned, and it does not yet appear to have IPO plans</li></ul><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-pan-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28163:1" rel="noopener">Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ)</a> is one to watch in the low-income space; it is transitioning from a low-income focused traditional to digital bank</li></ul><ul><li>These digital banks, along with the central bank promoting regulatory change, are driving the big Brazil banks onto the defensive; they will need to address opex more immediately to limit the erosion of their revenues and ultimately returns</li></ul><ul><li>The incumbents’ drive to lower opex is challenged by the need to continue to invest in and spend on their digital transformation, as well as the need to accelerate IT spend to account for consumer habits becoming increasingly digital under Covid-19</li></ul><ul><li>Risks to our positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> and digital bank opportunities include incumbent bank client inertia, high customer acquisition costs for digital banks and slow cross-sales growth as well as higher than expected cost of risk for digital banks</li></ul>

The Covid-19 pandemic is driving customer to change behaviour, and is accelerating and deepening the shift to digital banking and financial services, which presents hurdles for incumbents and mainly opportunities for FinTechs
Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)  is our preferred name on growth potential, solidity of capital base and steady customer growth; it offers premium growth prospects and trades on an attractive PEGIn the Brazil digital banking space, the leader, Nubank, remains privately owned, and it does not yet appear to have IPO plans
Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ) is one to watch in the low-income space; it is transitioning from a low-income focused traditional to digital bankThese digital banks, along with the central bank promoting regulatory change, are driving the big Brazil banks onto the defensive; they will need to address opex more immediately to limit the erosion of their revenues and ultimately returnsThe incumbents’ drive to lower opex is challenged by the need to continue to invest in and spend on their digital transformation, as well as the need to accelerate IT spend to account for consumer habits becoming increasingly digital under Covid-19Risks to our positive view on Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) and digital bank opportunities include incumbent bank client inertia, high customer acquisition costs for digital banks and slow cross-sales growth as well as higher than expected cost of risk for digital banks

Brazil Digital Banking: Client Behaviour Changes Driving Growth, with Regulatory Catalysts

Brazil

Banco do Brasil S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers consumer, commercial, and agribusiness loans, asset management, foreign exchange, private pension, insurance, lease financing, credit cards, and Internet banking services.

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Banco do Brasil (BBAS3 BZ)

EM Banks: Screening for Value and Resilience

We highlight 5 EM banks we see as standouts on our bank screens, Credicorp, Banco do Brasil, Banorte, Sberbank and Garanti. EM investors reduced...

Victor Galliano

EM Banks Through the Credit Quality and Value Lens

Our 2Q20 screens reveal the wide range in cost of risk amongst EM banks We screen for banks that are well capitalised and have ”kitchen sinked”...

Victor Galliano

Bank Credit Strategy: Pre-Positioning for AT1 Price Accretion

Our top five picks for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) price accretion comprise bonds issued by TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB), Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Emerging Market Banks: Measuring Their Response and Resilience to the Tougher Credit Quality Outlook

Banks in EM need to be prepared for the deteriorating credit quality outlook, as the Covid-19 driven contraction in GDP growth and economic...

Victor Galliano

Brazil Digital Banking: Client Behaviour Changes Driving Growth, with Regulatory Catalysts

The Covid-19 pandemic is driving customer to change behaviour, and is accelerating and deepening the shift to digital banking and financial...

Victor Galliano

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