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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The epic collapse of Stone’s recent share price has similarities to the waterfall price declines of mortgage-related stocks back in 2009.</li><li>Panic sellers, aided by algorithms, have sunk this Brazilian fintech company down to levels not seen since its IPO.</li><li>First, a little about Stone (STNE). They provide financial technology to merchants to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil.</li></ul>

The epic collapse of Stone’s recent share price has similarities to the waterfall price declines of mortgage-related stocks back in 2009.Panic sellers, aided by algorithms, have sunk this Brazilian fintech company down to levels not seen since its IPO.First, a little about Stone (STNE). They provide financial technology to merchants to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil.

Did the Collapse of Stone (STNE) Create an Opportunity for Value Investors?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nubank, the leading digital native bank in Brazil and Latin America, by number of customers, has filed for an IPO with an indication valuation in excess of USD50bn </li>
<li>Nubank is strong in terms of its key fintech metrics and trends, such as revenue per user relative to its cost to serve and it has low customer acquisition costs </li>
<li>Nubank is a clear leading fintech benchmark; yet its challenges are its super-premium valuation in the face of unsettled markets, and the delivery of fast growth whilst controlling loan delinquency</li>
</ul>


Nubank, the leading digital native bank in Brazil and Latin America, by number of customers, has filed for an IPO with an indication valuation in excess of USD50bn 
Nubank is strong in terms of its key fintech metrics and trends, such as revenue per user relative to its cost to serve and it has low customer acquisition costs 
Nubank is a clear leading fintech benchmark; yet its challenges are its super-premium valuation in the face of unsettled markets, and the delivery of fast growth whilst controlling loan delinquency


Nubank Pre-IPO Research: Priced for Perfection?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> continues to grow its digital customer base, and remains the second largest digital commercial bank in Brazil by digital accounts</li>
<li>Yet 3Q21 results showed that customer acquisition costs increased further, that Inter is losing investment assets and that Inter’s capital absorption post the latest equity follow-on is set to be high</li>
<li>In addition, the largest Brazilian digital Nubank has filed for an IPO which impacts Banco Inter negatively, as Nubank’s listing will erode Inter’s scarcity value on the equity market and the IPO allows Nubank to raise fresh equity to fund its growth</li>
<li>Banco Inter is in partnership in the payments arena with its now cornerstone shareholder StoneCo; StoneCo’s main supplier of POS terminals, PAX Global Technology, saw its Florida offices raided by the FBI earlier this week, which is clearly negative for StoneCo and by extension Banco Inter</li>
<li>We remain negative on Inter, as we believe that Banco Inter is still stretched on valuations, despite the steady share price de-rating since July, and the fundamental headwinds to returns that Inter faces are real due to intensifying competition, not least with Nubank’s planned IPO</li>
<li>Risks to our negative view on Banco Inter include it achieving better than expects customer acquisition costs and higher benchmark rates in Brazil boosting its net interest income</li>
</ul>



Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) continues to grow its digital customer base, and remains the second largest digital commercial bank in Brazil by digital accounts
Yet 3Q21 results showed that customer acquisition costs increased further, that Inter is losing investment assets and that Inter’s capital absorption post the latest equity follow-on is set to be high
In addition, the largest Brazilian digital Nubank has filed for an IPO which impacts Banco Inter negatively, as Nubank’s listing will erode Inter’s scarcity value on the equity market and the IPO allows Nubank to raise fresh equity to fund its growth
Banco Inter is in partnership in the payments arena with its now cornerstone shareholder StoneCo; StoneCo’s main supplier of POS terminals, PAX Global Technology, saw its Florida offices raided by the FBI earlier this week, which is clearly negative for StoneCo and by extension Banco Inter
We remain negative on Inter, as we believe that Banco Inter is still stretched on valuations, despite the steady share price de-rating since July, and the fundamental headwinds to returns that Inter faces are real due to intensifying competition, not least with Nubank’s planned IPO
Risks to our negative view on Banco Inter include it achieving better than expects customer acquisition costs and higher benchmark rates in Brazil boosting its net interest income


Banco Inter (BIDI11 BZ):  Tough 3Q21, No Let up on the Horizon

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Multiple announcements from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> have been well received by the market</li>
<li>The key news item, in our view, is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stoneco-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27564:1" rel="noopener">StoneCo Ltd (STNE US)</a>  is to invest BRL2.5bn in Banco Inter via new shares issued in an up and coming follow on issue, as a cornerstone investor</li>
<li>StoneCo is also granted the right of first refusal in the case of change of control of Banco Inter, for a period of 6 years</li>
<li>Banco Inter and StoneCo are to explore business opportunities that can leverage the strength of both companies to enhance growth potential</li>
<li>In addition, Banco Inter is also studying and assessing a potential corporate reorganization including the migration of its Banco Inter shareholder base to holdco Inter Platform Inc, shares of which would be intended to be NASDAQ listed</li>
<li>These developments do not change our view on Banco Inter; we have argued in past reports that it would need more capital to grow and it has now announced a follow-on, even if the potential downside risks has been offset by the prospective new investor StoneCo and the potential for their commercial partnerships</li>
<li>Our view is that both Banco Inter and StoneCo, although sound partners, have a major challenge to justify their premium valuations, at a time when competition across the board in digital financial services in Brazil is only intensifying</li>
<li>Risks to our bearish views on Banco Inter and StoneCo include better than expected revenue growth from cross-selling and synergies in their partnership, as well as better than expected loan growth and merchant services penetration</li>
</ul>


Multiple announcements from Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) have been well received by the market
The key news item, in our view, is that StoneCo Ltd (STNE US)  is to invest BRL2.5bn in Banco Inter via new shares issued in an up and coming follow on issue, as a cornerstone investor
StoneCo is also granted the right of first refusal in the case of change of control of Banco Inter, for a period of 6 years
Banco Inter and StoneCo are to explore business opportunities that can leverage the strength of both companies to enhance growth potential
In addition, Banco Inter is also studying and assessing a potential corporate reorganization including the migration of its Banco Inter shareholder base to holdco Inter Platform Inc, shares of which would be intended to be NASDAQ listed
These developments do not change our view on Banco Inter; we have argued in past reports that it would need more capital to grow and it has now announced a follow-on, even if the potential downside risks has been offset by the prospective new investor StoneCo and the potential for their commercial partnerships
Our view is that both Banco Inter and StoneCo, although sound partners, have a major challenge to justify their premium valuations, at a time when competition across the board in digital financial services in Brazil is only intensifying
Risks to our bearish views on Banco Inter and StoneCo include better than expected revenue growth from cross-selling and synergies in their partnership, as well as better than expected loan growth and merchant services penetration


Banco Inter & StoneCo – Interesting Concept, Challenging on Execution

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> is a leading digital bank in Brazil, only second to Nubank in scale and scope, with over 10m clients at the end of March 2021</li>
<li>It is also seeing accelerating loan growth to 1Q21 and broadening its service base deriving fees from its services and shopping platform</li>
<li>Yet, even on comparable FinTech valuations, as well as on the PEG ratio metric, Banco Inter’s market value seems stretched</li>
<li>In addition, given the acceleration in loan growth and the resultant absorption in capital, we see a real risk of a further equity cash call in coming quarters</li>
<li>We explore three scenarios for Banco Inter in this report; in our view, none of these scenarios’ implied returns make Banco Inter stock compelling at current valuations</li>
<li>Banco Inter’s upside risks include better than expected opex control especially on new customer acquisition driving better than expected returns</li>
</ul>



Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) is a leading digital bank in Brazil, only second to Nubank in scale and scope, with over 10m clients at the end of March 2021
It is also seeing accelerating loan growth to 1Q21 and broadening its service base deriving fees from its services and shopping platform
Yet, even on comparable FinTech valuations, as well as on the PEG ratio metric, Banco Inter’s market value seems stretched
In addition, given the acceleration in loan growth and the resultant absorption in capital, we see a real risk of a further equity cash call in coming quarters
We explore three scenarios for Banco Inter in this report; in our view, none of these scenarios’ implied returns make Banco Inter stock compelling at current valuations
Banco Inter’s upside risks include better than expected opex control especially on new customer acquisition driving better than expected returns


Banco Inter (BIDI11 BZ): Too Much Optimism Built into Valuations

Brazil

Inter & Co is a Brazilian financial technology company that operates as a digital multi-service bank, offering a comprehensive range of banking, credit, investments, payments, and lifestyle solutions. The company provides services through a digital banking super app, which includes checking accounts, loans, insurance, and a marketplace. Founded in 1994, Inter & Co is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

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Inter & Co (INBR32 BR)

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