Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.</p>

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM.  In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering &amp; Construction, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Banco Santander (Brasil) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Banco Santander's third-quarter financial results for 2023 demonstrate a mixed performance, albeit with solid progress in executing its long-term strategy.</li><li>The company recorded a quarterly profit of EUR 3.3 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a customer base that has expanded to 171 million.</li><li>For the first nine months of the year, the bank achieved a record profit of EUR 9.3 billion, up 14%.</li></ul>

Banco Santander's third-quarter financial results for 2023 demonstrate a mixed performance, albeit with solid progress in executing its long-term strategy.The company recorded a quarterly profit of EUR 3.3 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a customer base that has expanded to 171 million.For the first nine months of the year, the bank achieved a record profit of EUR 9.3 billion, up 14%.

Could Santander Be the Next Big Banking Powerhouse? Here’s What You Need to Know!

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Even though January usually shows poor NPL trends due to seasonal factors, we are concerned at the pace of NPL ratio worsening and arrears, especially in household credit</li>
<li>System loan growth over the last twelve months to January decelerated further (from +14% to December) but still grew by +13.6%, helped by a slight pick-up in consumer loan growth</li>
<li>New credit spreads rebounded MoM, along with lending rates; rising political risk is a concern so we turned cautious on Banco do Brasil, and we remain cautious on Santander Brasil</li>
</ul>


Even though January usually shows poor NPL trends due to seasonal factors, we are concerned at the pace of NPL ratio worsening and arrears, especially in household credit
System loan growth over the last twelve months to January decelerated further (from +14% to December) but still grew by +13.6%, helped by a slight pick-up in consumer loan growth
New credit spreads rebounded MoM, along with lending rates; rising political risk is a concern so we turned cautious on Banco do Brasil, and we remain cautious on Santander Brasil


January Brazil Bank Data in Charts –NPL Trends Are the Main Concern

<ul>
<li>In December many NPL ratio categories improved MoM, but there are still some areas of concerns namely household and SME credit</li>
<li>System loan growth for full year 2022 decelerated further (from an annualized 14.7% in November) but still grew by +14%, due primarily to slower consumer loan growth</li>
<li>New credit spreads declined MoM, along with lending rates implying that this was not due solely to funding costs; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil</li>
</ul>


In December many NPL ratio categories improved MoM, but there are still some areas of concerns namely household and SME credit
System loan growth for full year 2022 decelerated further (from an annualized 14.7% in November) but still grew by +14%, due primarily to slower consumer loan growth
New credit spreads declined MoM, along with lending rates implying that this was not due solely to funding costs; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil


December Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and SME NPL Metrics Are the Focus Points

<ul>
<li>In November most consumer NPL ratio categories, except credit cards, worsened with corporate delinquencies, especially in micro and SME, also deteriorating; the system NPL ratio is approaching its pre-pandemic high</li>
<li>System loan growth continues to decelerate; +14.7% for the twelve months to November is a further reduction from the October rate (+15.7%), due to slower corporate and consumer loan growth</li>
<li>New system credit spreads rose further MoM, and we expect average loan spreads to remain elevated into 2023; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil</li>
</ul>


In November most consumer NPL ratio categories, except credit cards, worsened with corporate delinquencies, especially in micro and SME, also deteriorating; the system NPL ratio is approaching its pre-pandemic high
System loan growth continues to decelerate; +14.7% for the twelve months to November is a further reduction from the October rate (+15.7%), due to slower corporate and consumer loan growth
New system credit spreads rose further MoM, and we expect average loan spreads to remain elevated into 2023; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil


November Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and Corporate NPL Metrics Broadly Worsening

Brazil

Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. is the Brazilian subsidiary of the Spanish Santander Group, offering a comprehensive range of financial services including personal and commercial banking, investment banking, insurance, and asset management. It serves individuals, small and medium enterprises, and corporate clients through a multichannel network. The bank was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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Banco Santander (Brasil) (SANB11 BR)

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.

Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Could Santander Be the Next Big Banking Powerhouse? Here’s What You Need to Know!

Banco Santander's third-quarter financial results for 2023 demonstrate a mixed performance, albeit with solid progress in executing its long-term...

Baptista Research

January Brazil Bank Data in Charts –NPL Trends Are the Main Concern

Seasonally, January data tends to show poor NPL trends but the pace of NPL ratio worsening are a concern; we became cautious on Banco do Brasil due...

Victor Galliano

December Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and SME NPL Metrics Are the Focus Points

December Brazil banks data saw negative NPL trends for households & MSMEs; credit rates & spreads slipped MoM, from November highs; we stay...

Victor Galliano

November Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and Corporate NPL Metrics Broadly Worsening

To November, consumer & corporate NPL ratios worsened, with the system NPL ratio near its pre-Covid high; we expect spreads to stay high, we favour...

Victor Galliano

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