Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Previously, we had three expected ADDs/DELs but now we have four. However, there is one more month left in the 3-month reference period and expectations can still change.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Previously, we had three expected ADDs/DELs but now we have four. However, there is one more month left in the 3-month reference period and expectations can still change.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; Gulf-Intuch Deal Index Implications

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.</li><li>Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.</li><li>Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>A third of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.5-4.3 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.1-2.9 days of ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> over the last 5 months.</li>
</ul>


A third of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), we see four potential index changes.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.5-4.3 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.1-2.9 days of ADV on the deletions.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) over the last 5 months.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul><li>We have revised down our Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2024-26E to USD80, USD75, and USD73/bbl, respectively.</li><li>The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to negatively impact PTTEP, as approximately 30% of its sales volume is exposed to crude oil prices, and the stock shows a high correlation of around 0.8 with crude oil prices.</li><li>For the refinery sector, we anticipate short-term negative effects, likely due to inventory losses in 3Q24E from the sharp decline in crude oil prices, against a neutral impact in the medium term given declining crude oil costs and crude premiums. </li></ul>

We have revised down our Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2024-26E to USD80, USD75, and USD73/bbl, respectively.The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to negatively impact PTTEP, as approximately 30% of its sales volume is exposed to crude oil prices, and the stock shows a high correlation of around 0.8 with crude oil prices.For the refinery sector, we anticipate short-term negative effects, likely due to inventory losses in 3Q24E from the sharp decline in crude oil prices, against a neutral impact in the medium term given declining crude oil costs and crude premiums. 

Industry Update: Energy (Oil) - SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 3 expected ADDs/DELs and given that the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings have now started the rankings may be more stable. </li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 3 expected ADDs/DELs and given that the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings have now started the rankings may be more stable. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; Some Changes to Expectations

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; Gulf-Intuch Deal Index Implications

The Gulf-Intuch Deal could close in 1H CY25 creating a vacancy in SET 50. The highest-ranked name from the reserve list will be promoted to SET 50...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Report: October 2024

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There should be 4 changes to the SET50 in December. Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.5-4.3x ADV on the inclusions and sell between 0.1...

Brian Freitas

Industry Update: Energy (Oil) - SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; Some Changes to Expectations

There are names lurking close to border which can still move into and outside the top 50 and cause changes to our list of expected ADDs/DELs. As...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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