Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The US dollar continues to show a weakening trend (supporting a stronger baht), pressured by expectations for headline inflation in February 2025 (to be announced on March 12), which is projected to grow by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, slowing slightly from +0.5% MoM and +3.0% YoY in the previous month.</li><li>This is due to: Cost-push inflation has remained stable despite a 3.8% MoM decline in crude oil prices in February; however, natural gas prices (which account for 3.12% of headline inflation and 47.6% of the energy basket) (Figure 1) surged by 26% MoM to USD3.8/mmbtu.</li><li><p>Demand-pull inflation is exerting downward pressure, preventing inflation from accelerating significantly, as signs of domestic economic weakness emerge.</p></li></ul>

The US dollar continues to show a weakening trend (supporting a stronger baht), pressured by expectations for headline inflation in February 2025 (to be announced on March 12), which is projected to grow by 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, slowing slightly from +0.5% MoM and +3.0% YoY in the previous month.This is due to: Cost-push inflation has remained stable despite a 3.8% MoM decline in crude oil prices in February; however, natural gas prices (which account for 3.12% of headline inflation and 47.6% of the energy basket) (Figure 1) surged by 26% MoM to USD3.8/mmbtu.Demand-pull inflation is exerting downward pressure, preventing inflation from accelerating significantly, as signs of domestic economic weakness emerge.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,192/1,186 points and the resistance at 1,209 (10-day EMA)/1,220 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the trend remains in a zig-zag down pattern, with the index searching for a bottom within the 1,130-1,506 point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index is in a rebound phase after hitting a new low at 1,173.13 points on March 4. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,192/1,186 points and the resistance at 1,209 (10-day EMA)/1,220 points.In the medium term, the trend remains in a zig-zag down pattern, with the index searching for a bottom within the 1,130-1,506 point range.In the short term, the index is in a rebound phase after hitting a new low at 1,173.13 points on March 4. 

Weekly Strategy & US Inflation Expectations - March 10, 2025

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance levels at 1,215 (10-day EMA) and 1,222 points, while the support levels are at 1,193 and 1,185 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the trend remains downward in a zig-zag down pattern, with the index searching for a bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index has re- entered a short-term rally phase after making a new year-low at 1,173.13 points on March 4. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance levels at 1,215 (10-day EMA) and 1,222 points, while the support levels are at 1,193 and 1,185 points.In the medium term, the trend remains downward in a zig-zag down pattern, with the index searching for a bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.In the short term, the index has re- entered a short-term rally phase after making a new year-low at 1,173.13 points on March 4. 

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,167/1,150 points and the resistance at 1,185/1,193 points.</li><li>The medium-term trend remains in a zig-zag down pattern, seeking the bottom within the 1,130-1,506 point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index continues to form new lows with limited rebounds, having recently hit a new low for the year at 1,173.13 points, the lowest in four years and 11 months, compared to 1,130.54 points on April 3, 2020. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,167/1,150 points and the resistance at 1,185/1,193 points.The medium-term trend remains in a zig-zag down pattern, seeking the bottom within the 1,130-1,506 point range.In the short term, the index continues to form new lows with limited rebounds, having recently hit a new low for the year at 1,173.13 points, the lowest in four years and 11 months, compared to 1,130.54 points on April 3, 2020. 

KTX Zoom - China's NPC Meeting and US ISM Services PMI for February

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,180/1,167 points and the resistance at 1,193/1,200 points.</li><li>The medium-term outlook remains in a downtrend, with the index forming a zig-zag down pattern to find the bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index has resumed its decline, testing the previous new low of 1,186.36 points (recorded on February 28) to determine whether this is the cycle's bottom or if it will continue downward to establish a new low. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,180/1,167 points and the resistance at 1,193/1,200 points.The medium-term outlook remains in a downtrend, with the index forming a zig-zag down pattern to find the bottom within the range of 1,130-1,506 points.In the short term, the index has resumed its decline, testing the previous new low of 1,186.36 points (recorded on February 28) to determine whether this is the cycle's bottom or if it will continue downward to establish a new low. 

KTX Zoom - Keep an Eye on Trump's Speech and US Retail Sector Earnings

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

Ktx Ahead - MARCH 10, 2025

Demand-pull inflation is exerting downward pressure, preventing inflation from accelerating significantly, as signs of domestic economic weakness...

Krungthai XSpring

Weekly Strategy & US Inflation Expectations - March 10, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,192/1,186 points and the resistance at 1,209 (10-day EMA)...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: ECB Meeting - MARCH 6, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with resistance levels at 1,215 (10-day EMA) and 1,222 points, while the support levels...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - China's NPC Meeting and US ISM Services PMI for February

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,167/1,150 points and the resistance at 1,185/1,193 points.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Keep an Eye on Trump's Speech and US Retail Sector Earnings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,180/1,167 points and the resistance at 1,193/1,200 points.

Krungthai XSpring

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