IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>'s gross spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a>’s offer (less the interim dividend) of A$87.52 has widened touching an all-time high of 17.0% today.</li>
<li>Despite the longer-than-expected due diligence, rising rates and market volatility, the evidence suggests that KKR remains committed. The expectation is for a binding proposal by June end.</li>
<li>At the last close, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-10% estimated decline) is lower than the upside (+17%) from a binding offer. </li>
</ul>



Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)'s gross spread to KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)’s offer (less the interim dividend) of A$87.52 has widened touching an all-time high of 17.0% today.
Despite the longer-than-expected due diligence, rising rates and market volatility, the evidence suggests that KKR remains committed. The expectation is for a binding proposal by June end.
At the last close, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-10% estimated decline) is lower than the upside (+17%) from a binding offer. 


<ul>
<li>The KKR consortium will offer A$88.00 per share less any dividends paid after the date of the indicative proposal. The offer less interim dividend of A$0.485 is A$87.52 per share.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> Board has provided due diligence access. We think the offer is attractive and represents an all-time share price high. </li>
<li>The largest shareholder is said to be supportive. The gross spread of the offer less the interim dividend of A$87.52 to the last close price of A$80.00 is 9.4%. </li>
</ul>


The KKR consortium will offer A$88.00 per share less any dividends paid after the date of the indicative proposal. The offer less interim dividend of A$0.485 is A$87.52 per share.
The Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) Board has provided due diligence access. We think the offer is attractive and represents an all-time share price high. 
The largest shareholder is said to be supportive. The gross spread of the offer less the interim dividend of A$87.52 to the last close price of A$80.00 is 9.4%. 


Ramsay’s Indicative Bid from the KKR Consortium

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> should benefit from Thailand’s resumption of quarantine-free travel from February 1. International patients contributed 30% of total revenue of BDMS in pre-pandemic period.</li>
<li>With the less severe Omicron variant, BDMS non-COVID revenue is expected to recover. Its revenue and net profit through first nine months of 2021 are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.</li>
<li>Digitalization initiatives of BDMS will be a stable source of income and long-term growth driver for the company, contributing 10–15% of total revenue in next five years.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) should benefit from Thailand’s resumption of quarantine-free travel from February 1. International patients contributed 30% of total revenue of BDMS in pre-pandemic period.
With the less severe Omicron variant, BDMS non-COVID revenue is expected to recover. Its revenue and net profit through first nine months of 2021 are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Digitalization initiatives of BDMS will be a stable source of income and long-term growth driver for the company, contributing 10–15% of total revenue in next five years.


Bangkok Dusit Medical (BDMS TB): Thailand Reopening+ Less Severe Omicron= Continued Business Revival

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rajthanee-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23729:1" rel="noopener">Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB)</a> reported triple-digit revenue and net profit growth in Q3, with gross margin reaching all-time high to 57.4%, due to Covid-19-related tailwind.</li>
<li>With the steadily declining new Covid-19 cases in Thailand, Rajthanee’s Q4 revenue is expected to decline sequentially. However, non-Covid business should continue to recover with the resumption of elective procedures.</li>
<li>Despite the shares trading at a reasonable P/E of 17x, I see limited upside due to its small and geographically concentrated operations, with substantial revenue exposure to social security schemes.</li>
</ul>



Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB) reported triple-digit revenue and net profit growth in Q3, with gross margin reaching all-time high to 57.4%, due to Covid-19-related tailwind.
With the steadily declining new Covid-19 cases in Thailand, Rajthanee’s Q4 revenue is expected to decline sequentially. However, non-Covid business should continue to recover with the resumption of elective procedures.
Despite the shares trading at a reasonable P/E of 17x, I see limited upside due to its small and geographically concentrated operations, with substantial revenue exposure to social security schemes.


Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB): Q4 Revenue Growth to Decelerate Sequentially as Covid Tailwind Fades

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

As the Thai government announced that they will open the borders in 120 days, a stock that will rally hard is obviously <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a>as it directly links with the number of foreign tourists coming to Thailand. 
When the market fully digests the news that Thailand is fully opened for foreign tourists, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> has underperformed the other tourism names that have benefited from the increasing vaccination in Thailand. 
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For those who have been patient holding AOT, you shall be rewarded soon. 
For investors who do not have AOT in the portfolio yet, this is the biggest catalyst so far thus please start building a position.
For investors who are short AOT, although one may think that the tourists may not come that soon, the stock will rally much earlier than the tourists coming back to Thailand as the pent-up demand is massive and vaccines are pretty much available around the world. 
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As the Thai government announced that they will open the borders in 120 days, a stock that will rally hard is obviously Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)as it directly links with the number of foreign tourists coming to Thailand. 
When the market fully digests the news that Thailand is fully opened for foreign tourists, Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) has underperformed the other tourism names that have benefited from the increasing vaccination in Thailand. 

For those who have been patient holding AOT, you shall be rewarded soon. 
For investors who do not have AOT in the portfolio yet, this is the biggest catalyst so far thus please start building a position.
For investors who are short AOT, although one may think that the tourists may not come that soon, the stock will rally much earlier than the tourists coming back to Thailand as the pent-up demand is massive and vaccines are pretty much available around the world. 


Airport of Thailand (AOT): 120 Days to Reopening

Thailand

Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited operates a network of private hospitals and polyclinics across Thailand and in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, providing primary to tertiary medical services. These services encompass diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and rehabilitation for various conditions, including heart disease, eye ailments, and cancer. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Nonthaburi, Thailand.

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Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB)

Ramsay Health's Offer Spread Risk/Reward

At the last close, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-10% estimated decline) is lower than the upside...

Arun George

Ramsay’s Indicative Bid from the KKR Consortium

The KKR consortium will offer A$88.00 less an interim dividend of A$0.485 for a total of A$87.52 per share. The offer is attractive. The gross...

Arun George

Bangkok Dusit Medical (BDMS TB): Thailand Reopening+ Less Severe Omicron= Continued Business Revival

With Thailand resuming quarantine-free travel and Omicron remaining less severe, BDMS is expected to see accelerated business recovery. Favorable...

Tina Banerjee

Rajthanee Hospital (RJH TB): Q4 Revenue Growth to Decelerate Sequentially as Covid Tailwind Fades

Q4 revenue is expected to slow down q/q as new Covid-19 cases in Thailand is declining steadily. However, non-covid business is recovering. The...

Tina Banerjee

Airport of Thailand (AOT): 120 Days to Reopening

As the Thai govt announced that they will open the borders in 120 days, the Airports of Thailand share will rally hard as it directly links with...

Henry Soediarko

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