ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight"><p>This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.</p></div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ambitious-omnibus-bills-face-uphill-battle-pivotal-golkar-congress-nu-broadsides-democracy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34915" rel="noopener">Ambitious Omnibus Bills Face Uphill Battle; Pivotal Golkar Congress; NU Broadsides Democracy</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kevin-o-rourke" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060" rel="noopener">Kevin O’Rourke</a> comments on the most important political and economic developments in Indonesia over the past week. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-stuck-in-a-low-growth-equilibrium-in-the-absence-of-monetary-and-fiscal-stimulus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:33265" rel="noopener">Singapore Stuck in a Low-Growth Equilibrium in the Absence of Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus,</a> Cross ASEAN economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> lays out his views on the sluggish Singapore economy.</p><h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-beverage-thbev-tb-brewing-spin-off-a-positive-catalyst" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34911" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV TB) - Brewing Spin-Off a Positive Catalyst,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> takes a close look at the potential upside from the potential US$10bn spin-off of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s brewery business. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-the-transitional-on-the-ground-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34826" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - The Transitional,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's leading media player following a meeting with management.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/geo-energy-gerl-sp-distressed-bonds-and-share-price-versus-optimistic-management-who-is-right" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34887" rel="noopener">Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right?</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits coal play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/accordia-golf-trust-agt-sp-privatization-likely-at-min-0-76-sgd-unit-leaves-another-13-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34914" rel="noopener">Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): Privatization Likely at Min 0.76 SGD/Unit Leaves Another 13% Upside</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits this golfing play in light of potential privatisation. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maybank-doubling-credit-costs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34907" rel="noopener">Maybank – Doubling Credit Costs,</a> Banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malayan-banking-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:600:1" rel="noopener">Malayan Banking (MAY MK)</a> revisits Malaysia's biggest bank and finds some worrying credit cost issues. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/genting-singapore-value-beyond-gaming-now-secured-long-term-with-government-expansion-deal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34754" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore: Value Beyond Gaming Now Secured Long Term with Government Expansion Deal,</a> gaming specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/howard-j-klein" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1005" rel="noopener">Howard J Klein</a> takes a fresh look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP).</a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/company-visits-pruksa-s-tough-times-indorama-s-strong-operations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32806" rel="noopener">Company Visits: Pruksa's Tough Times, Indorama's Strong Operations,</a> our Thai Guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> circles back after company visits to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indorama-ventures-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18105:1" rel="noopener">Indorama Ventures (IVL TB),</a>the largest petrochemicals company in Thailand outside PTT Group, and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pruksa-real-estate-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20877:1" rel="noopener">Pruksa Real Estate (PS TB)</a>, a leader in the low-cost SDH segment that could benefit from the government's de facto waiver of property transfer fees. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-ipo-dominant-but-eroding-market-share" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34890" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management IPO - Dominant but Eroding Market Share,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> takes a look at this up and coming Thai Asset Management IPO. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yanlords-unconditional-offer-for-united-engineer-gets-ifa-backing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34838" rel="noopener">Yanlords' Unconditional Offer For United Engineer Gets IFA Backing,</a> Events Specialist revisits this ongoing offer. On the 25 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanlord-land-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14152:1" rel="noopener">Yanlord Land (YLLG SP)</a> <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/25-10-2019-Yanlord_Ann_Acquisition_YIS_UEL_Offer.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=583021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had entered into a sale and purchase agreement which would result in the control of Yanlord Perennial Investment (Singapore) Pte. Ltd (YPI), an  SPV holding a 35.27% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-engineers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15566:1" rel="noopener">United Engineers (UEM SP)</a>. </p><p>In C<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cse-global-moving-into-choppier-seas-with-weaker-balance-sheet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34790" rel="noopener">SE Global: Moving Into Choppier Seas With Weaker Balance Sheet,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/valerie-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:803" rel="noopener">Valerie Law, CFA</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cse-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4025:1" rel="noopener">CSE Global Ltd (CSE SP)</a> after a strong period of performance and finds its order book looks strong (the highest in 6 quarters), the firm's balance sheet is weaker after acquiring four businesses in the year. </p><h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-dummies-guide-to-partial-offers-tenders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34719" rel="noopener">The Dummies' Guide to Partial Offers/Tenders,</a> Events Specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> provides a guide for non-arbitrageurs looking for better understanding of how to dissect the risks and developments along the path of Announcement to Completion and Post-Offer Trading of the Partial Offer process, with the hope that it serves to increase the opportunity set and improve risk management understanding. </p><div><p></p></div>

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.Macro InsightsIn Ambitious Omnibus Bills Face Uphill Battle; Pivotal Golkar Congress; NU Broadsides DemocracyKevin O’Rourke comments on the most important political and economic developments in Indonesia over the past week. In Singapore Stuck in a Low-Growth Equilibrium in the Absence of Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus, Cross ASEAN economist Prasenjit K. Basu lays out his views on the sluggish Singapore economy.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Thai Beverage (THBEV TB) - Brewing Spin-Off a Positive Catalyst,Angus Mackintosh takes a close look at the potential upside from the potential US$10bn spin-off of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s brewery business. In PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - The Transitional,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's leading media player following a meeting with management.In Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right? CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits coal play Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP).In Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP): Privatization Likely at Min 0.76 SGD/Unit Leaves Another 13% Upside, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this golfing play in light of potential privatisation. In Maybank – Doubling Credit Costs, Banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zeros in on Malayan Banking (MAY MK) revisits Malaysia's biggest bank and finds some worrying credit cost issues. In Genting Singapore: Value Beyond Gaming Now Secured Long Term with Government Expansion Deal, gaming specialist Howard J Klein takes a fresh look at Genting Singapore (GENS SP).In Company Visits: Pruksa's Tough Times, Indorama's Strong Operations, our Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA circles back after company visits to Indorama Ventures (IVL TB),the largest petrochemicals company in Thailand outside PTT Group, and  Pruksa Real Estate (PS TB), a leader in the low-cost SDH segment that could benefit from the government's de facto waiver of property transfer fees. In Bangkok Commercial Asset Management IPO - Dominant but Eroding Market Share,Zhen Zhou, Toh takes a look at this up and coming Thai Asset Management IPO. In Yanlords' Unconditional Offer For United Engineer Gets IFA Backing, Events Specialist revisits this ongoing offer. On the 25 October, Yanlord Land (YLLG SP) announced it had entered into a sale and purchase agreement which would result in the control of Yanlord Perennial Investment (Singapore) Pte. Ltd (YPI), an  SPV holding a 35.27% in United Engineers (UEM SP). In CSE Global: Moving Into Choppier Seas With Weaker Balance Sheet,Valerie Law, CFA revisits CSE Global Ltd (CSE SP) after a strong period of performance and finds its order book looks strong (the highest in 6 quarters), the firm's balance sheet is weaker after acquiring four businesses in the year. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn The Dummies' Guide to Partial Offers/Tenders, Events Specialist Travis Lundy provides a guide for non-arbitrageurs looking for better understanding of how to dissect the risks and developments along the path of Announcement to Completion and Post-Offer Trading of the Partial Offer process, with the hope that it serves to increase the opportunity set and improve risk management understanding. 

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Slowing Singapore, Indonesia Media, and Maybank's Woes

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bangkok Commercial Asset Manag / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a> is selling a mix of primary and secondary shares to raise up to US$889m in its IPO. </p><p>BAM is the largest distressed asset management company in Thailand based on the total asset size. It has a dominant market share of 47% as of December 2018.</p><p>However, its market share has been eroding in the last three years due to increase in competition. Furthermore, NPLs have been rising since 2015 signalling a weaker Thailand economy. Even if BAM can acquire NPLs and NPAs at a favorable price, it will still take a while to flow through as earnings.</p>

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB) is selling a mix of primary and secondary shares to raise up to US$889m in its IPO. BAM is the largest distressed asset management company in Thailand based on the total asset size. It has a dominant market share of 47% as of December 2018.However, its market share has been eroding in the last three years due to increase in competition. Furthermore, NPLs have been rising since 2015 signalling a weaker Thailand economy. Even if BAM can acquire NPLs and NPAs at a favorable price, it will still take a while to flow through as earnings.

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management IPO - Dominant but Eroding Market Share

Thailand

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited operates as an asset management company. The Company offers investment in real estate sector, as well as offers properties for auction and selling. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management serves customers in Thailand.

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Bangkok Commercial Asset Manag (BAM TB)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Slowing Singapore, Indonesia Media, and Maybank's Woes

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

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The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Slowing Singapore, Indonesia Media, and Maybank's Woes

This past week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management IPO - Dominant but Eroding Market Share

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB) is selling a mix of primary and secondary shares to raise up to US$889m in its IPO. BAM is the largest...

Zhen Zhou, Toh