Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Cross Asset Strategy

In this review, we highlight three recent external developments and big-picture domestic issues and how they may impact Thai equities in the short to medium term.<ul>
<li>
Coronavirus outbreak. With over 14,000 infections worldwide, the coronavirus hit Thai tourism hard and fast. Even the once resilient healthcare industry hasn't held up, and weak measures indicate that the worst is yet to come.</li>
<li>
Thai national budget delay. Absentee MPs invalidate the earlier budget approval, impacting projects and stimulus packages. The question is how long the government takes to sort out this problem.</li>
<li>
Changes in Europe. The media highlights Trump's likely trade war shortly after his victory/agreement with China, while the Britain finally leaves the EU. Neither of these are positive for Thailand, though fortunately, Europe's importance is small relative to other major economic zones, such as America, China, or Japan.</li>
</ul>

In this review, we highlight three recent external developments and big-picture domestic issues and how they may impact Thai equities in the short to medium term.

Coronavirus outbreak. With over 14,000 infections worldwide, the coronavirus hit Thai tourism hard and fast. Even the once resilient healthcare industry hasn't held up, and weak measures indicate that the worst is yet to come.

Thai national budget delay. Absentee MPs invalidate the earlier budget approval, impacting projects and stimulus packages. The question is how long the government takes to sort out this problem.

Changes in Europe. The media highlights Trump's likely trade war shortly after his victory/agreement with China, while the Britain finally leaves the EU. Neither of these are positive for Thailand, though fortunately, Europe's importance is small relative to other major economic zones, such as America, China, or Japan.


Thai Macro Watch (February): Coronavirus Outbreak, Budget Delay

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As mentioned in the Thematic Review on Thai Strategy, there is reason for optimism after a year of under-performance (2019). Relative to our previous portfolio, these are the key adjustments MCorp Review has made:<ul>
<li>
Upgrades to: 1) energy on geopolitical tensions; 2) commodities and consumers due to improving farm incomes; and 3) media due to lower competition.</li>
<li>
Downgrades to: 1) banks due to increased regulations; and 2) many sectors (eg. autos, healthcare, and power) due to high base effects.</li>
<li>
Maintenance of: 1) our originally bullish stance on tourism, telecoms, IE, construction, and transport; and 2) our bearish stance on property.</li>
</ul>As is expected from an improving market, there are more upgrades than downgrades.

As mentioned in the Thematic Review on Thai Strategy, there is reason for optimism after a year of under-performance (2019). Relative to our previous portfolio, these are the key adjustments MCorp Review has made:

Upgrades to: 1) energy on geopolitical tensions; 2) commodities and consumers due to improving farm incomes; and 3) media due to lower competition.

Downgrades to: 1) banks due to increased regulations; and 2) many sectors (eg. autos, healthcare, and power) due to high base effects.

Maintenance of: 1) our originally bullish stance on tourism, telecoms, IE, construction, and transport; and 2) our bearish stance on property.
As is expected from an improving market, there are more upgrades than downgrades.

Thai Strategy 2020 (Part 2): Sector Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 5th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT E&amp;P, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development, Bangkok Bank, SCB X, Advanced Info Service, Scb X, PTT E&amp;P, Bangkok Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 5th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT E&amp;P, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development, Bangkok Bank, SCB X, Advanced Info Service, Scb X, PTT E&amp;P, Bangkok Bank.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 5th): PTT E&P, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however, emerging markets are the place to be. China, Brazil, Hungary, Qatar, India, Poland, and Indonesia all display positive price and/or RS trends. In this report we recap technical important levels on all major indexes and highlight attractive stocks within Real Estate, Health Care/Pharma, Precious Metals Mining, and Utilities.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of May 22nd. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in True, Gulf Energy Development, Bangkok Commercial Asset Management, Cal-Comp Electronics, Muangthai Capital, Gulf Energy Development, Cal-Comp Electronics, Muangthai Capital, True.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of May 22nd. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD3.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in True, Gulf Energy Development, Bangkok Commercial Asset Management, Cal-Comp Electronics, Muangthai Capital, Gulf Energy Development, Cal-Comp Electronics, Muangthai Capital, True.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 22nd): True, Gulf Energy Development

Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (BDMS) is Thailand's largest private hospital group, operating a network of hospitals and wellness clinics across Thailand and Cambodia under multiple brands, including Bangkok Hospital, Samitivej Hospital, and Phyathai Hospital. The company offers a wide range of healthcare services, from preventive care to tertiary and super-tertiary treatments, and also engages in related businesses such as medical laboratories, pharmaceutical production, and medical equipment distribution. BDMS was established in 1969 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)

Thai Macro Watch (February): Coronavirus Outbreak, Budget Delay

In this review, we highlight three recent external developments and big-picture domestic issues and how they may impact Thai equities in the short...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai Strategy 2020 (Part 2): Sector Outlook

As mentioned in the Thematic Review on Thai Strategy, there is reason for optimism after a year of under-performance (2019). Relative to our...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 5th): PTT E&P, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT E&P (PTTEP TB), Advanced Info Service (ADVANC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Markets Deteriorating...Except EM

With U.S. markets stumbling, the MSCI ACWI index is breaking down to new lows: defensive Sectors remain attractive. Relative to MSCI ACWI however,...

Vermilion Research

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 22nd): True, Gulf Energy Development

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in True (TRUE TB), Gulf Energy Development (GULF...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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