Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.</li><li>This tends to be positive for banks.</li><li>It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.</li><li>A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.</li><li>But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. </li><li>It pays to differentiate, even in a boom</li></ul>

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.This tends to be positive for banks.It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. It pays to differentiate, even in a boom

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.</li>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics</li>
</ul>


Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.
Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics


Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading - One for Domestics and Cornerstones

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (124744Z TB)</a> has started to meet investors ahead of its $1 billion IPO. The roadshow will run till early July with a listing targeted later in July.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71653" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, tepid total premium performance, a checkered record in sales channel diversification, stagnating agent growth and inconsistent agent productivity.</li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (124744Z TB) has started to meet investors ahead of its $1 billion IPO. The roadshow will run till early July with a listing targeted later in July.
In Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, tepid total premium performance, a checkered record in sales channel diversification, stagnating agent growth and inconsistent agent productivity.


Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

Since the last Clash of the Titans between TMB and SCB over FWD ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmb-vs-scb-bancassurance-ain-t-big-enough-for-the-two-of-us" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12158">TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain’t Big Enough for the Two of Us!</a>), we haven't spoken much about insurance. In the meantime, Bangkok Bank nailed the deal with HK's AIA, the top foreign insurer in Thailand and one-time market leader. That sent BLA's share price spiraling over 7% in a single day, as investors said Bangkok Bank ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rabble-rousers-ep-3-the-king-of-banks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6762">Rabble Rousers (Ep. 3): The King of Banks</a>) would start selling AIA policies rather than their own house…

Since the last Clash of the Titans between TMB and SCB over FWD ( TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain’t Big Enough for the Two of Us!), we haven't spoken much about insurance. In the meantime, Bangkok Bank nailed the deal with HK's AIA, the top foreign insurer in Thailand and one-time market leader. That sent BLA's share price spiraling over 7% in a single day, as investors said Bangkok Bank ( Rabble Rousers (Ep. 3): The King of Banks) would start selling AIA policies rather than their own house…

Sathorn Series C: Revisiting Thai Insurance

Thailand

Bangkok Insurance Public Co. Ltd. is a Thai non-life insurance company offering a wide range of products including motor, fire, marine, property, personal accident, health, and engineering insurance. The company distributes its products through agents, brokers, financial institutions, and direct channels. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1947.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bangkok Insurance (BKI TB)

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again. This tends to be positive for banks. It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making...

Daniel Tabbush

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading - One for Domestics and Cornerstones

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, tepid premium performance, a checkered record in channel diversification,...

Arun George

Sathorn Series C: Revisiting Thai Insurance

Since the last Clash of the Titans between TMB and SCB over FWD ( TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain’t Big Enough for the Two of Us!), we haven't spoken...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)