IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.</li>
<li>The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met. </li>
<li>Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.</li>
</ul>


The Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) delisting resolution failed as it was not approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders.
The resumption of trading resolutions to restore the 10% free float requirement was passed. Trading will resume once the 10% free float requirement is met. 
Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. Deal break price around S$21.49.


Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK)</a>, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, raised around US$442m in its HK IPO.</li>
<li>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, raised around US$442m in its HK IPO.
FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
We looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group</a>, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise around US$442m in its HK IPO.</li>
<li>FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



FWD Group, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise around US$442m in its HK IPO.
FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the IPO pricing.


FWD IPO - Valuation Down but Its Difficult to Get Excited About It

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> IFA opines that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.</li>
<li>In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.</li>
<li>The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. </li>
</ul>



Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) IFA opines that the OCBC (OCBC SP) S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.
In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.
The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. 


Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. </li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) will replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and JMT Network Services (JMT TB) in the SET 50 Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. 


SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

Thailand

Bangkok Life Assurance Public Company Limited is a Thai financial services group specializing in life insurance. It offers a wide range of products including life insurance plans (protection, savings, education, pension, health, critical illness, total permanent disability, accident coverage), general insurance, mutual funds, credit protection plans, home loans, and bancassurance products. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1951.

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Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB)

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Minorities Secure a Pyrrhic Victory

Minorities have secured a pyrrhic victory as the OCBC (OCBC SP) offer was light, but there is no obvious catalyst to re-rate the shares. My...

Arun George

FWD IPO Trading - Tepid Demand

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, raised around US$442m in its HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

FWD IPO - Valuation Down but Its Difficult to Get Excited About It

FWD Group, a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, aims to raise around US$442m in its HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Shares will likely breach float requirements and be suspended at offer close. While trading through terms, recent precedent suggests that investors...

Arun George

SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

TLI & WHA will replace JMART & JMT in the SET50 on 30 June. Passive trackers will need to buy 3.4% of the float on TLI. The adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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