Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries</li>
<li>There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit</li>
<li>Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth</li>
</ul>


We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries
There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit
Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth


Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catur-sentosa-adiprana-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18671:1" rel="noopener">Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci,</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nsl-ltd-singapore" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12666:1" rel="noopener">NSL Ltd (NSL SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-diy-holding-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43926:1" rel="noopener">DIY Holding (Thailand)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on Indonesia Strategy, and insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-pcl-6b5341fe-4d93-483e-9cb0-d5d833cdc53e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrovietnam-oil-corporation-pv-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43954:1" rel="noopener">PetroVietnam Oil (OIL VN)</a>, </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Berli Jucker, Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP IJ), Lippo Karawaci,  Silverlake Axis, NSL Ltd (NSL SP), and DIY Holding (Thailand).
There was also a macro insight on Indonesia Strategy, and insights on Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT TB), and PetroVietnam Oil (OIL VN), 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma  - Berli Jucker, CSAP, and Silverlake Asia

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's exposure among EM funds is beginning to taper, with 2.3% of funds closing positions and 6.3% shifting to underweight over the past six months</li>
<li>Bank Central Asia and Bank Rakyat reached record ownership highs this year but have since faced closures by select funds</li>
<li>On the fund level, closures have outpaced openings, led by Aubrey and BlackRock, with the majority of funds now holding allocations below 5%.</li>
</ul>


Indonesia's exposure among EM funds is beginning to taper, with 2.3% of funds closing positions and 6.3% shifting to underweight over the past six months
Bank Central Asia and Bank Rakyat reached record ownership highs this year but have since faced closures by select funds
On the fund level, closures have outpaced openings, led by Aubrey and BlackRock, with the majority of funds now holding allocations below 5%.


Indonesia: Sentiment Weakens as Key Sectors and Stocks Lose Ground

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:875:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gajah-tunggal-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1632:1" rel="noopener">Gajah Tunggal (GJTL IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on the Singapore Economy, Malaysian Politics, and the Indonesian economy, as well as Helitap on natural rubber. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB), Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ), and Gajah Tunggal (GJTL IJ).
There were also macro insights on the Singapore Economy, Malaysian Politics, and the Indonesian economy, as well as Helitap on natural rubber. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma  - GoTo & Baba, Adaro Energy, and Bangkok Dusit Medical

Indonesia

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides banking and related services.  The Bank also provides custodianship, trusteeship, and management of pension funds of financial institutions.  Through its subsidiaries, the Bank also provides leasing and consumer financing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

There is a wide variance of domestic loan growth rates in Asian countries, one must be highly selective. There are implications for growth of net...

Daniel Tabbush

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in October. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Berli Jucker, CSAP, and Silverlake Asia

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia: Sentiment Weakens as Key Sectors and Stocks Lose Ground

Indonesia's exposure among EM funds is beginning to taper, with 2.3% of funds closing positions and 6.3% shifting to underweight over the past six...

Steven Holden

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Baba, Adaro Energy, and Bangkok Dusit Medical

The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB), Lippo Karawaci...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)