External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We see limited margins upside potential for MIKA in FY24 amid slowing revenue intensity, as evidenced in 9M23.</li><li>As a result, we trim our FY23-FY24 earnings estimates by -4%/-9% and arrive at a lower DCF-based TP of IDR2,900.</li><li>We maintain our Hold rating on the stock on slower growth outlook and premium valuation versus peers at current 26.0x EV/ EBITDA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We see limited margins upside potential for MIKA in FY24 amid slowing revenue intensity, as evidenced in 9M23.As a result, we trim our FY23-FY24 earnings estimates by -4%/-9% and arrive at a lower DCF-based TP of IDR2,900.We maintain our Hold rating on the stock on slower growth outlook and premium valuation versus peers at current 26.0x EV/ EBITDA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) - Limited Margins Upside as Intensity Continued to Slow

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medikaloka-hermina-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27000:1" rel="noopener">Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ)</a> remains a differentiated hospital player in Indonesia given its focus on the treatment of women and children plus its doctor partnership model in its hospitals.</li>
<li>The company booked a strong rebound in both inpatient and outpatient volumes in 1H2023, and we expect this to continue into 2H, with two new hospitals opened in 3Q2023.</li>
<li>Despite exhibiting the strongest growth amongst its peers, the company still trades at a significant discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> on 10.2x FY2024E EV/EBITDA. </li>
</ul>



Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) remains a differentiated hospital player in Indonesia given its focus on the treatment of women and children plus its doctor partnership model in its hospitals.
The company booked a strong rebound in both inpatient and outpatient volumes in 1H2023, and we expect this to continue into 2H, with two new hospitals opened in 3Q2023.
Despite exhibiting the strongest growth amongst its peers, the company still trades at a significant discount to Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) on 10.2x FY2024E EV/EBITDA. 


Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) - Starting Patients Young

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ)</a> is in the midst of a recovery not yet reflected in headline numbers as the effects of inflated COVID revenues fade and core business takes off.</li>
<li>The company is a key beneficiary of the new health bill allowing foreign doctors to practice in Indonesia given its best-in-class hospitals located in affluent catchment areas.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat</a> continues to expand its hospital network, increase treatment intensity, and digitalise its operations. Valuations are attractive given the highest returns amongst its peers, with recovery in motion.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) is in the midst of a recovery not yet reflected in headline numbers as the effects of inflated COVID revenues fade and core business takes off.
The company is a key beneficiary of the new health bill allowing foreign doctors to practice in Indonesia given its best-in-class hospitals located in affluent catchment areas.  

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat continues to expand its hospital network, increase treatment intensity, and digitalise its operations. Valuations are attractive given the highest returns amongst its peers, with recovery in motion.


Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Well Adjusted For a Rapid Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ)</a> recently booked 1Q2023, where headlines did not reflect the true recovery of the core business given COVID was still a factor boosting last year's revenues. </li>
<li>Non-COVID inpatient and outpatient volumes were up by +19% YoY reflecting the strength of the recovery as the environment normalizes but occupancy rates still have a significant upside.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga</a> has started to put foot-to-pedal in terms of expanding new hospitals and increasing capacity at existing hospitals combined with increased efficiencies. Valuations are attractive versus history.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) recently booked 1Q2023, where headlines did not reflect the true recovery of the core business given COVID was still a factor boosting last year's revenues. 
Non-COVID inpatient and outpatient volumes were up by +19% YoY reflecting the strength of the recovery as the environment normalizes but occupancy rates still have a significant upside.

Mitra Keluarga has started to put foot-to-pedal in terms of expanding new hospitals and increasing capacity at existing hospitals combined with increased efficiencies. Valuations are attractive versus history.


Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Stepping on the Gas

<ul><li>Following the release of the 1Q23 result, we revise our earnings forecast on MIKA mainly to reflect our new ASP growth assumption for this year, as we believe MIKA will have less flexibility in setting its ASP in 2023 given a shift in the pattern of consumer spending</li><li>At the same time, we also revise our operational beds and BOR assumptions for 2023 given the update on the number of beds in MIKA’s new hospitals</li><li>All in all, our topline growth estimate is lowered from 15.8% to 11.4% yoy, reducing our TP to IDR3,300</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following the release of the 1Q23 result, we revise our earnings forecast on MIKA mainly to reflect our new ASP growth assumption for this year, as we believe MIKA will have less flexibility in setting its ASP in 2023 given a shift in the pattern of consumer spendingAt the same time, we also revise our operational beds and BOR assumptions for 2023 given the update on the number of beds in MIKA’s new hospitalsAll in all, our topline growth estimate is lowered from 15.8% to 11.4% yoy, reducing our TP to IDR3,300Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) - Modest downward revisions

Indonesia

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk PT engages in hospital management and business services. The Company operates hospitals located in the Greater Jakarta Area, Surabaya and Tegal.

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) - Limited Margins Upside as Intensity Continued to Slow

We maintain our Hold rating on the stock on slower growth outlook and premium valuation versus peers at current 26.0x EV/ EBITDA.

BRI Danareksa Research

Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ) - Starting Patients Young

Despite exhibiting the strongest growth amongst its peers, the company still trades at a significant discount to Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA...

Angus Mackintosh

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Well Adjusted For a Rapid Recovery

Mitra Keluarga continues to expand its hospital network, increase treatment intensity, and digitalise its operations. Valuations are attractive...

Angus Mackintosh

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Stepping on the Gas

Mitra Keluarga has started to step on the gas in expanding new hospitals and increasing capacity at existing hospitals combined with increased...

Angus Mackintosh

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) - Modest downward revisions

Following the release of the 1Q23 result, we revise our earnings forecast on MIKA mainly to reflect our new ASP growth assumption for this year,...

BRI Danareksa Research